Our Falcons vs. Saints picks preview breaks down the NFC South matchup on Sunday afternoon in New Orleans. Despite their struggles, are the Saints the smart play against a banged-up Falcons team that won’t have their starting quarterback and No. 1 receiver? Or will Atlanta pull off the small upset?

Falcons vs. Saints Game Information

• Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

• Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025

• Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. ET.

• Stadium: Caesars Superdome — New Orleans, LA (domed).

• TV: FOX (regional/market windows may apply)

Falcons vs. Saints Injury Report

Falcons: The team announced that leading receiver Drake London (knee — PCL strain) is expected to miss the game vs. New Orleans. In addition, the organization has confirmed Michael Penix Jr. is slated for season-ending knee surgery and has been moved off the active starter role. Those two items are the biggest headlines — losing London removes a contested-down and big-play receiving option who stretches the field, and Penix’s absence forces Atlanta to pivot to their backup QB plan and a more conservative offensive approach. Both developments reduce the Falcons’ passing upside but also put a heavier emphasis on the run game and quick passing (screens/short throws) to protect whoever’s under center.

Saints: New Orleans has its own personnel notes through the week (check the Saints’ official updates for game-day practice reports), but the primary market-moving injuries for this matchup at the time of writing are the Falcons’ losses noted above. The Saints’ depth at quarterback and ancillary skill positions (and how active those players are on game day) will determine whether they can exploit Atlanta’s passing limitations; if the Saints have their usual complementary pieces available, they stand to benefit from any Falcons offensive dysfunction. (See team gameday reports for final activations.)

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Falcons vs. Saints Prediction

Pick: New Orleans Saints -2.5 (cover) — confident, single expert-backed call.

Why: New Orleans gets the edge at home in the Superdome where environmental variables are neutralized and situational coaching matters most. With Atlanta forced to rework its passing plan (Drake London out, Michael Penix Jr. unavailable), the Falcons will lean heavier on Bijan Robinson and short-area passing. That conservative offensive script reduces Atlanta’s upside and increases the chance of stalled drives — exactly the kind of game script that favors the home team in a tight divisional tilt.

Defensively, the Saints have the personnel to take advantage of Atlanta’s passing limitations and to win the turnover/field-position battle. Even if the Saints aren’t blowing the Falcons out, they’re more likely to execute critical third-down stops and convert a late short field or red-zone possession — the small, decisive plays a favorite needs to cover a 2.5-point number at home. Coaching in rivalry games also tightens decision-making; New Orleans’ game management and home crowd tilt increase the probability they win by a field goal or more.

Projected final score: Saints 23 — Falcons 20.

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