Chiefs vs Jaguars Best Bets & Expert Picks — MNF SGP (Update)

Chiefs vs Jaguars Best Bets & Expert Picks — MNF SGP Chiefs vs Jaguars Best Bets & Expert Picks — MNF SGP

Last Updated on October 6, 2025 3:52 pm by Michael Cash

Chiefs vs Jaguars best bets for Monday Night Football: verified odds with our side, total, and a conservative same game parlay, plus buy/wait thresholds you can act on.

The Chiefs vs Jaguars odds have Kansas City a short road favorite at −3.5 with a 45.0 total for Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN). Kansas City’s pass rush has traveled well, while Jacksonville’s protection has been hot-cold by opponent. Our card leans into trench edges and pace. For live movement and splits, hit our NFL odds board and the NFL public betting chart.

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Game info & TV

  • Date: Monday, October 6, 2025
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Location: EverBank Stadium — Jacksonville, FL
  • Network: ESPN

Consensus odds snapshot (5pm ET Update)

  • Spread: Chiefs −2.5 (open) → −3.5 (+100/-120)
  • Total: 46.5 (open) → 45.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Jaguars +170 / Chiefs -200

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Quick injury & matchup notes

  • Chiefs: Offensive core intact; pass-rush group fully available, boosting pressure rates without heavy blitz.
  • Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence cleared; WR/RB rotations healthy. OL depth thin at guard; secondary regains nickel help.
  • Edge: KC’s front vs JAX protection on early downs; if the Chiefs win there, they control script and shorten possessions.

Best Bets & Expert Picks

  • Side — Chiefs −3.5 (buy ≤ −3.5; avoid > −4.5): KC’s pass rush + Mahomes’ intermediate efficiency create sustained drives and field-position edges.
  • Total — Under 45.0 (buy ≥ 45; add at 45.5; pass < 44.5): Both teams can score, but pace projection and red-zone regression angles favor an Under band in the mid-40s.

Same Game Parlay (conservative build)

  • Leg 1: Chiefs moneyline
  • Leg 2: Under 49.5 (alt total)
  • Leg 3: Travis Kelce 50+ receiving yards (alt)

Why this build? We anchor with KC ML, buy cushion on the total to 49.5, and pair with Kelce’s usage floor. If you prefer a ground-lean script, swap Kelce 50+ for Isiah Pacheco 50+ rushing.

Market read — timing your entries

  • Side: If −3 appears anywhere, upgrade stake; if the public forces −4/−4.5, reduce and consider 1H −2.5.
  • Total: Good at 45; add only if 45.5 shows. Live Unders become attractive if early series produce long fields.

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