NFL Week 11 Chiefs vs Broncos Winner – Pick & +730 Parlay Build

NFL Week 11 Chiefs vs Broncos Winner - Pick & +730 Parlay Build NFL Week 11 Chiefs vs Broncos Winner - Pick & +730 Parlay Build

Last Updated on November 16, 2025 1:06 pm by Michael Cash

DENVER, CO — The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday to face the Denver Broncos in a Week 11 AFC West showdown. Our Chiefs vs Broncos winner focuses on how a -4 spread and 45-point total line up with Denver’s home-field edge and Kansas City’s ability to sustain scoring drives. For a full market breakdown, you can also read our Chiefs vs Broncos odds preview, while this piece zeroes in on who wins against the number with kickoff set for 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS.

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Chiefs vs Broncos Odds — Week 11

Spread: Chiefs -4 / Broncos +4
Total: 45

Chiefs vs Broncos — Chiefs vs Broncos winner

Winner pick: Broncos +4 against the spread
Kansas City still brings the more explosive passing ceiling with Patrick Mahomes, yet this number asks the Chiefs to clear more than a field goal at altitude against a Broncos team that has shown improvement on defense. Moreover, Denver can lean on a steadier run game and shorter passing concepts to bleed clock, shorten the contest and limit the total number of possessions. With a 45-point total and an environment that often favors methodical drives over quick strikes, grabbing a full four points with the home underdog remains an attractive way to attack this matchup.

Supporting angle: Lean to the Under 45 points
The clearest Denver path involves keeping this game out of true shootout territory and forcing the Chiefs to work through longer, sustained marches. Additionally, Kansas City has been comfortable winning tighter, lower-scoring games when its defense controls the middle of the field and limits explosives. If the Broncos avoid turnovers and make the Chiefs settle for a few field goals, the combination of slower tempo and red-zone resistance pushes the game toward a result that favors both Denver +4 and an Under lean at 45.

Who is The Public Betting – Chiefs vs Broncos Week 11

Early public betting leans toward Kansas City, with about 58% of spread tickets on the Chiefs. That interest helped move the line from roughly Chiefs -1.5 on the opener toward the current -4 range in most markets. Meanwhile, the Broncos account for around 42% of the tickets and have shifted from +1.5 out to +4, giving contrarian bettors a better price if they are willing to fade the road favorite and back the home dog.

Numbers update frequently — check the latest on the NFL public betting chart and learn usage basics in our public betting guide.

Parlay – Broncos +4, Under 45 & Pacheco Ground Game

Three-leg parlay build:

  • Leg 1: Broncos +4 against the spread
  • Leg 2: Under 45 total points
  • Leg 3: Isiah Pacheco Over his posted rushing yards prop

Structurally, that combination leans into a script where Denver keeps things close, the overall scoring stays in check and Kansas City still relies on Pacheco to help control tempo. A standard three-leg build with spreads, totals and a rushing prop typically lands in the mid-range parlay price tier, making it a realistic ticket for casual bettors who want action tied directly to this matchup.

Have your own same game parlay idea for Chiefs vs Broncos? Try our simple, free parlay calculator to plug in any stake and up to 15 legs to see the potential payout before you place a bet.

Things to Know Before You Bet

  • Altitude factor: Mile High conditions can wear down visiting defenses and alter late-game stamina, which often benefits a home underdog with a physical run game.
  • Chiefs’ style shift: Kansas City no longer needs 30-plus points every week; the defense has taken on a larger role, and that can keep margins tighter even in wins.
  • Broncos’ blueprint: Denver’s best route to a cover involves staying balanced, limiting turnovers and forcing the Chiefs into third-and-long rather than pure rhythm drives.
  • Live-betting angle: If the Broncos control early field position and slow the pace, in-game numbers on both the spread and total may quickly move toward Denver and the Under.
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How to Watch – Chiefs vs Broncos

📅 Sunday, November 16, 2025
⏰ 4:25 p.m. ET
📺 CBS
🏟 Empower Field at Mile High — Denver, CO

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