Packers vs. Falcons Line Movement
Atlanta, GA (The Spread) – Which way is the line moving in this Saturday’s 2011 NFL Divisional Round Playoff matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Atlanta Falcons? Continue reading to find out.
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According to oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com, the Falcons opened as 1.5-point favorites over the Packers for Saturday’s playoff game. The over/under total opened at 45.5.
The total immediately started to move in the Falcons’ favor, as it went from 1.5 to 2, and is now up to 2.5 at some books. At other books, the line is staying right around 2 and others you can find it as high as 3.
What’s interesting about the line movement for this game is that the public favors the Packers. According to current NFL public betting information, 55% of the 30,000-plus wagers on Saturday’s game have been placed on the Packers +2.5. So why the line is going up is a bit strange, unless Vegas is getting sharp money in on the Falcons.
What’s really interesting is the line movement on the total. As previously mentioned, the over/under opened up at 45.5 at most books, but now it’s down to 43.5. One would think that with the game being played in a dome and given the teams’ offensive firepower, the total would stay high. But it continues to drop.
One reason for that may be because the Packers haven’t given up more than 17 points the past three weeks, while the Falcons haven’t given up more than 18 points the past four weeks. Thus, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan could have a tough time putting points on the board this weekend. (It’s also important to note that the Falcons run a ball-controlled offense and they like to eat up a lot of the clock.)
The recent trends also favor the under in this matchup. The under is 8-1 in the Packers’ last nine road games and 4-1 in their last five games as a road underdog. The under is 5-2 in the Falcons’ last seven games as a favorite of 0.5 to 3.0 points.
Kickoff for this 2011 NFL Divisional Round Playoff game is 8:00PM ET.
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