NFC Championship Staff Picks
(The Spread) – One of the greatest rivalries in NFL history will be renewed this Sunday when the Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers in the 2011 NFC Conference Championship Game. Our staff hands out their predictions on this weekend’s title game.
View Current NFC Conference Championship Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com, the Bears are 3.5-point home underdogs against the Packers on Sunday. The over/under total for this game is currently 43.5 points.
Here are The Spread.com’s staff predictions.
MICHAEL CASH: I know the media wants to make this all about Aaron Rodgers, but to me this game will come down to defense. The Packers and Bears rarely score a lot of points when they play each other. In fact, both games between Green Bay and Chicago this year have been under the total set for this 2011 NFC Championship Game. And because they play each other so much, both should have their defenses in top form for this meeting. It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be physical, and as long as the Packers don’t kick to Devin Hester, this game should be well under the total. Make sure you keep an eye on the weather though, as Midwest winters can wreak havoc on NFL totals. I’m taking the UNDER 43.5.
BLADE (The Spread’s Forum Master): One of the NFL’s greatest rivalries heats up Sunday when the Green Bay Packers visit the Chicago Bears in the NFC Championship Game. The Packers opened -3 and were quickly bet up to -3½, mostly because of their impressive win over Atlanta last week. The Bears beat the Seahawks to advance but like most of their games this year, they went about it without much fanfare and glitz. But they got the job done with a balanced attack on offense and great defensive effort. One thing I have learned about betting the NFL is forget about what happened last week since teams rarely put together back to back games like the Packers played last week. Can the Packers play another near perfect game this week or will they come back to earth? I think oddsmakers have overlooked the Bears and in typical fashion, they expect the Packers to play another flawless game this week. I think the Bears +3½ at home offers tremendous value and wouldn’t be shocked to see them advance to the Super Bowl.
DREW SHARPER: My pick for this one is with Green Bay -3.5. I would feel a lot better if it was 3 or 2.5, but I expect this to be a low-scoring game and the key will be the play of both quarterbacks. Between Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler, I feel that Rodgers will make fewer mistakes than Cutler. Look for Cutler to make a big mistake that could lead to a defensive touchdown and allow Green Bay to cover.
ANTHONY ROME: If the NFL has taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected. After the way the Packers went up and down the field on the Falcons last weekend and the Bears racked up the points on the Seahawks, some bettors think that this game will sail over. But according to latest NFL trends, the under is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these two teams and 5-1 in the last six games in Chicago. The under is also 8-2 in the Packers’ last 10 road games and 5-0 in their last five games as a road favorite. With how well both of these teams know each other, both offenses may struggle. Couple that with poor field conditions and we could be looking at another field goal-fest between these two teams. Turnovers are a huge concern with both of these teams (the Bears can cough it up just as easily as they can take it away), but I think both defenses will rise to the challenge. I’m taking the under 43.5.
NATE STEELE: Aside from the obvious matchups at various positions that of course must be scoured carefully, the difference in this one could come down to the field conditions. Soldier Field in Chicago has developed a bad reputation over the years for its poor footing and many players have recently said it is the worst grass in the NFL. This could seriously hamper the Packers vaunted pass rush. Pressure Bears quarterback Jay Cutler and he is very prone to making poor decisions. Give him time to throw behind a questionable offensive line and the strong-armed quarterback is fully capable of picking apart opposing defensive backfields. On the other side of the coin, Green Bay gunslinger Aaron Rodgers is playing better than any quarterback in the league right now. But one of his biggest strengths is his mobility and ability to scramble. If that is compromised even slightly by poor field conditions, that could throw him off his game somewhat and the Chicago defense will certainly game plan better to defend against his strengths than the Falcons did. Chicago’s coaching staff was much maligned during the regular season, yet here they are. Whatever the Bears coaching staff has done, it worked brilliantly. Some people call the Bears lucky and maybe they have been to an extent. They’re also quite good and know how to win close games. Give me Cutler, a decent rushing attack, and a strong defense at home. That coupled with a field goal cushion is why I like the Chicago Bears +3.5.
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