AFC Championship Game Staff Picks
(The Spread) – Can the Pittsburgh Steelers take care of business at home and play in their third Super Bowl in the last six years or do the New York Jets have at least one more upset in them? Our staff hands out their picks for the 2011 AFC Championship Game.
View Current AFC Championship Game Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com, the Steelers are 3.5-point favorites over the Jets this Sunday, while the over/under total for this game is currently 38.5 points.
Our staff hands out their picks for the 2011 AFC Championship Game.
MICHAEL CASH: I like the Steelers –3.5 in this game. I think the Steelers are playing their best football of the year right now and the Jets may have played their best game of the year last week against New England. The Steelers have been here before with basically the same team and have won then, too. Ben Roethlisberger has a few less games on his body and quite frankly, is just better than Mark Sanchez . The one thing that concerns me about this game though is the line. I like them at 3.5 (actually, at 3 if you can buy the point down) but I am not sure how much I might like them at -5 or -6. I anticipate a close game and weather may play a factor. It’s all about the number when picking sides – so, I would advise using your judgment based on how the point spread shakes out as it gets closer to game time.
ANTHONY ROME: The Jets are having an amazing run and certainly nobody saw them beating both the Colts and Patriots on the road the past two weeks. But they must be worn out. It’s hard enough playing on the road during the regular season, nevertheless the postseason when everything is on the line. This will be the third week in a row that Rex Ryan’s team will travel and something tells me they’re out of gas. They beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh once this year but they had a couple of things going for them back then. The Jets weren’t playing very well at the time so Pittsburgh was probably a little over confident thinking that a win was in the bag. The Steelers also didn’t have Troy Polamalu in that matchup, who is everything to their defense. They didn’t sack Mark Sanchez in that game either, which I can almost guarantee you won’t be the case this Sunday. I think Pittsburgh’s defense will take away the Jets’ vaunted rushing attack and force the Jets into obvious passing situations. Once that happens, Dick Lebeau can dial up some blitzes and force Sanchez to make a mistake or two. According to latest NFL trends, the Steelers are 9-0 against the spread in their last nine games in January and 5-0 in their last five playoff home games. They just don’t lose at home at this time of year – I’m taking the Steelers –3.5.
DREW SHARPER: The Jets have been the talk of the AFC playoffs while the Steelers just continue to go about their business. The Steelers have been under the radar all season despite having two Super Bowls under Ben Roethlisberger and I look for them to show the championship poise that the Jets won’t have. The Jets will have an emotional letdown as they can’t build up hatred for the Steelers and Pittsburgh will have revenge on its mind after a 5-point loss during the regular season. Give me Pittsburgh –3.5.
BLADE (The Spread’s Forum Master): The New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers will meet Sunday in the AFC Championship in what should be a defensive battle. Both the Jets and Steelers are near the top in almost every defensive category and I just don’t see either team moving the ball effectively against each other’s defense. Neither team wants their QB to take over the game and would rather play conservative while not turning the ball over or giving the other team good field position. I look for both teams to play great defense with both teams trying to do just enough on offense to win the game and not much more. Throw in cold temperatures, bad field conditions and one of the toughest places to kick a field goal, and I look for this game to easily stay under. I’m taking the UNDER 38.5.
NATE STEELE: It is difficult to tell whether the New York Jets or the Pittsburgh Steelers had a more emotional victory this past weekend. The easy answer would be the Jets as they put themselves front and center in the media by trash-talking all week and then backed it up against a New England team that many considered the Super Bowl favorite. Just like the Jets, Pittsburgh also defeated a divisional rival in Baltimore as its week was also spent going back and forth with the trash talk before enduring a physical game at home by winning on a late touchdown. It had to be a mentally exhausting week for both sides, but at least the Steelers had the bye week before that and are probably slightly fresher mentally and physically entering the AFC Championship game. The Jets have now won four playoff games in two years under Rex Ryan and he undoubtedly has his troops ready for the big ones. My only question is how much New York has left in its tank. It is a roster full of veterans and they know how to prepare themselves, but in another tough road environment I’m just not sure if they have what it takes to win a third straight road game. The two defenses in this matchup are exceptional and the game will likely come down to one or two drives. Whichever quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger or Mark Sanchez, can put two touchdown drives on the board will win in my opinion. My feeling is that Mike Wallace or Emmanuel Sanders (or maybe even Antonio Brown again) has one or two big plays in them to tilt this contest in the Steelers’ direction. Also remember that Troy Polamalu was out with an injury when the Jets defeated the Steelers on Dec. 19. Having Polamalu in the secondary makes a gigantic difference in what Pittsburgh does schematically. I’m going with Pittsburgh -3.5.
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