Super Bowl LIII Over/Under Drops Again
While bettors have mainly concentrated on the point spread ahead of next Sunday’s Super Bowl matchup between the New England Patriots and the L.A. Rams, the total has also moved plenty off the opening number.
101 New England Patriots at 102 Los Angeles Rams
6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, February 3, 2019
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the over/under is now sitting at 57 for Super Bowl LIII after opening at 58. The total had been hovering at 57.5 for several days but with most of the action coming in on the under, oddsmakers finally decided to knock off another half point to drop the total to 57.
As for the point spread, the number has stayed at 2.5 after a ton of early movement. Depending on which sportsbook you viewed, the Rams opened as either a 1-point favorite or the spread was a pick’em. A ton of early action on the Patriots forced oddsmakers to move the line to New England -1, then eventually got up to 2.5 by Tuesday morning. That is where the number has stayed, however.
Most of the betting tickets and money remains on New England, with 82% of the betting tickets coming in on the Patriots and 86% of the money wagered also on Tom Brady and Co. to cover. Money has streamed in on the Pats since the opening numbers were released and if the betting action continues that way, oddsmakers may have no choice but to move the spread up the key number of 3.
While not impossible, the spread could eventually get up to 3.5, although that would create plenty of liability for sportsbooks because of a “middle” opportunity for sharper bettors. Any bettor that nabbed the Patriots at the opening number of +1 and the Rams at +3.5 could cash twice, making it a nightmare scenario for sportsbooks.
As for the betting action on the total, 53% of the betting tickets and 56% of the money is on the under. It would be surprising if by kickoff next Sunday that those numbers don’t flip. Recreational bettors like playing the over, as nobody wants to sit there on Super Bowl Sunday and root for limited scoring. That said, the early action could indicate that sharps see at least some value in the under.