This Florida International vs. Jacksonville State prediction lands on a Conference USA game that both teams enter unbeaten in league play. Jacksonville State sits as a three-point home favorite on Tuesday night, with the total posted at 43.5. That total opened at 45.5 and has already come down two full points. Florida International carries one of the stingiest defenses in the country into Alabama. Jacksonville State counters with the more dangerous quarterback. Here is the handicap, the market read, and the plays that came out of it.
Last Updated: October 13, 2026
Florida International vs. Jacksonville State — Game Info
| Where | AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville Alabama |
| When | October 13 – 8:00 PM ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
Florida International vs. Jacksonville State Betting Preview
Jacksonville State is 4-2 overall and 2-0 in Conference USA, riding a three-game winning streak into the week. Two of those wins were one-score comebacks. The hosts edged Middle Tennessee 23-13, then survived at Kennesaw State 27-26 on a late field goal. Florida International is 3-2 overall and 1-0 in league play after a 22-3 win over New Mexico State. This is the visitors’ first conference road trip of the season, and the schedule split matters. Florida International is 3-0 at home and 0-2 away from it.
The defense is what makes Florida International interesting. The visitors rank fourth nationally in total defense at 241.8 yards per game and sixth in scoring defense at 12.2 points per game. They are 13th against the run, 14th on third down, and allow just 4.00 yards per play. One caveat belongs with those numbers. The schedule behind them rates among the weakest in the sport, and one of the five games came against an FCS opponent.
The offense is the other half of the story, and it is a problem. Florida International ranks 121st in scoring at 18.8 points per game despite ranking 80th in yards. The reason sits in the red zone. The visitors have turned 19 trips inside the 20 into six touchdowns and 10 field goals. Quarterback JJ Kohl has completed 92 of 161 passes for 1,180 yards with five touchdowns against seven interceptions. Leading rusher Anthony Carrie averages 3.2 yards a carry. Maguire Anderson is the one reliable target, with 25 catches for 401 yards.
Jacksonville State scores 27.3 points per game and leans on quarterback Caden Creel for both passing and rushing production. Creel has thrown for 1,423 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions while running 86 times for 405 yards and four scores. Those four rushing touchdowns are half the team’s total on the ground. Deondre Johnson averages 18.8 yards a catch, and Jamill Williams leads the roster with five touchdowns. The defense is the softer side. The hosts rank 116th on third down and 97th against the run.
Neither school has reported an injury for this game. Running back Jalen Likely missed the Ohio game in September with a hand injury, but he has played in every game since and handled 11 carries at Kennesaw State. Willie Simmons is in his second season at Florida International. Charles Kelly is the head coach at Jacksonville State.
Florida International vs. Jacksonville State Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida International | +3.0 (-115) | +120 | O 43.5 (-110) |
| Jacksonville State | -3.0 (-105) | -140 | U 43.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of October 13, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Florida International vs. Jacksonville State Prediction — Nineteen Road Points in Two Trips
FIU has played two road games this season and scored nine points at South Florida and 10 at Florida Atlantic. Those games finished with 28 and 26 combined points. That is not a one-off either. Four of the visitors’ five games have stayed under the number, and their games have landed an average of 22.1 points beneath the posted total. The red-zone profile explains why. Six touchdowns on 19 trips means drives that reach scoring range keep turning into three points rather than seven.
The possession math pushes the same direction. Florida International holds the ball 33:28 per game, ninth nationally. Jacksonville State already possesses it only 27:21, which ranks 123rd, and runs 62.7 plays a game. A team that grinds clock meeting a team that does not hold it long produces fewer drives for both sides. Add the visiting defense allowing 4.00 yards per play and ranking 14th on third down, and the hosts should face more long fields than they have all year.
The market has moved the same way the research points, which is the confirmation worth having. The number opened at 45.5 and now sits at 43.5, a full two-point drop. That is also below every total either team has played to this season. The case against is real, though. Jacksonville State has gone over in four of six, its home games have averaged 50 combined points, and its defense ranks 116th on third down against an offense that does sustain drives. A couple of explosive plays from Creel would change the complexion quickly. The honest read is that this is a projection of roughly 40 points, which leaves a modest but genuine cushion.
The Pick: Under 43.5 (-110)
Florida International vs. Jacksonville State Prediction — Three of Four Meetings Inside a Touchdown
These programs have met four times since 2020, and the hosts lead the series 3-1. The scorelines are the useful part. Jacksonville State won 19-10 in 2020, took a 34-31 decision in 2024, and the visitors won last November in Miami, 27-21. Only the 2023 meeting, a 41-16 result, got away from anyone. Three of the four were decided inside a touchdown, and two came down to the final possession.
The underlying ratings say these teams are close to even. Both grade at the same overall efficiency mark, arriving there by opposite routes. Florida International owns the better defense and the worse offense. Jacksonville State owns the better offense and the worse defense. When two teams rate level, three points is simply the home field, and the visitors are getting it with the single best unit on the field. Jacksonville State’s three wins over FBS competition came by four, 10 and one point, so blowing anyone out has not been the pattern.
What argues the other way deserves equal billing. Jacksonville State is 3-0 against the spread at home and has covered those games by an average of 7.7 points, while Florida International is 0-2 on the road and has yet to score more than 10 points away from Miami. An offense ranked near the bottom of the sport, with a quarterback carrying seven interceptions, can lose a three-point game without ever being in it. This is a lean rather than a conviction play, and the shared assumption with the total above is worth naming. Both rest on this staying a low-scoring, tight game.
The Pick: Florida International +3.0 (-115)
Our Final Word on Florida International vs. Jacksonville State
There is a third angle on the board worth a mention without a play attached. Creel is the shortest price among the touchdown scorers, which makes sense given his four rushing scores. He also runs into a defense that has surrendered four touchdowns on 13 red-zone trips and ranks 13th against the run. The price never got short enough to be worth taking a side on, so we are leaving it alone rather than forcing a third position.
Under 43.5 at -110 is the stronger of the two plays, because a visiting offense averaging 9.5 points on the road meets a possession profile that strips drives out of the game for both teams. Florida International +3.0 at -115 follows it, on the read that two evenly rated teams in a tight, low-scoring matchup make a field goal a wide margin.
NCAAF Florida International vs. Jacksonville State FAQ: October 13, 2026
What time does the Florida International vs. Jacksonville State game start?
Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, which is 7:00 p.m. Central at the stadium. Conference USA listed the game in both time zones when it released the season broadcast schedule, and both schools carry the same window.
What channel is the Florida International vs. Jacksonville State game on?
ESPNU carries the game nationally. Conference USA named the network in its 2026 broadcast release, and both athletic departments list ESPNU for this Tuesday night window. Pete Souza handles play-by-play with Leger Douzable on analysis.
Where are Florida International and Jacksonville State playing?
The game is at AmFirst Stadium in Jacksonville, Alabama, which is Jacksonville State’s home field. Worth noting for anyone searching: the host city is in Alabama, not Florida. Florida International is the visiting team here, making its first conference road trip of the season.
What conference are Florida International and Jacksonville State in?
Both schools play in Conference USA, so this is a league game. Conference USA fields 10 football members in 2026: Delaware, Florida International, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Liberty, Middle Tennessee, Missouri State, New Mexico State, Sam Houston and Western Kentucky.
Who won the last meeting between Florida International and Jacksonville State?
Florida International won the most recent meeting 27-21 on November 22, 2025, in Miami. That snapped a three-game run for Jacksonville State in the series, which the hosts still lead 3-1 across four meetings dating to 2020. Tuesday is the fifth.
What are Florida International and Jacksonville State’s records this season?
Florida International is 3-2 overall and 1-0 in Conference USA. Jacksonville State is 4-2 overall and 2-0 in league play, winners of three straight. Both teams are unbeaten in conference games, so the loser gives up ground in the league race.