No. 23 SMU puts a perfect home record on the line Saturday when California visits Dallas for an ACC matchup. The Mustangs are 18.5-point favorites, and the total sits at 55. Cal won last year’s meeting in Berkeley, but it arrives off a 41-7 home loss to Wake Forest. The public is leaning hard toward the underdog on the spread. Below, we break down the matchup, the line movement, and our best bets on the side and the total.
Last Updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026
California vs. SMU — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| When | Saturday, October 24 – 12:00 PM ET |
| TV | The CW |
California vs. SMU Betting Preview
SMU is 5-1 overall and 3-1 in ACC play. The Mustangs have won three straight, most recently a 23-13 win over Virginia that lifted them to No. 23 in the AP poll. Their only loss came 41-31 at Louisville. Quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for 246 yards and two touchdowns against Virginia. He now holds SMU’s career records for completions and passing yards. Running back Kendrick Raphael added 124 rushing yards in that game. Raphael is a former Cal back, which adds a small subplot to this one.
California is 3-4 overall and 2-2 in the ACC under first-year head coach Tosh Lupoi. The Golden Bears beat Virginia Tech 25-20 on October 10. A week later, however, Wake Forest blew them out 41-7 in Berkeley. Cal’s offense runs through the air. It ranks sixth in the ACC at 288.1 passing yards per game. Wide receiver Chase Hendricks leads the team with 47 catches and 415 yards. On defense, Kingston Lopa has five interceptions, which is tied for the national lead.
The quarterback picture is the key thing to watch. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele entered concussion protocol earlier this month, and Jackson Brousseau made his first Cal start against Virginia Tech. Cal had not formally named a starter for this game as of midweek. Neither quarterback appeared on the Cal-SMU injury report. The Bears will be without running back Adam Mohammed, and several receivers and offensive linemen are listed as questionable.
SMU leads the all-time series 2-1. The Mustangs won 38-6 in Dallas in 2024. Cal answered with a 38-35 win in Berkeley last season, scoring the go-ahead touchdown on a late drive.
California vs. SMU Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | +18.5 (-110) | +650 | O 55 (-110) |
| SMU | -18.5 (-110) | -1100 | U 55 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, October 24, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
California vs. SMU — Who Is the Public Betting?
| California | 67% | 33% | SMU |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
California vs. SMU Prediction — Can the Bears Stay Inside the Number?
This line opened at SMU -19.5 and has dipped a point. That move matches the public split, with 67% of spread bets on Cal. Still, the market has not moved far. That suggests the books are comfortable with SMU as a big favorite. The case for the Mustangs is clear. They are unbeaten at home, and Jennings gives them the more proven quarterback. Cal leans heavily on its passing game, and it will be without lead back Adam Mohammed. If SMU takes away the pass, Cal may not have a reliable second option. The Wake Forest loss showed how quickly things can unravel for this offense.
The case for Cal rests on how SMU has won in conference play. The Mustangs beat Florida State by three, Boston College by nine, and Virginia by 10. None of their ACC wins this season has come by 19 or more. Cal could also lean on short, controlled throws to shorten the game and limit SMU’s possessions. Cal’s ball-hawking secondary gives it a path to steal a possession or two. And the Bears played SMU close last season before winning late. The quarterback uncertainty is the biggest risk to this side. Even so, 18.5 points is a lot of cushion for a team that has been tough on the ball defensively.
The Pick: California +18.5 (-110)
California vs. SMU Prediction — Is the Total Climbing Too High?
The total opened at 53.5 and has risen to 55. Bettors appear to expect Jennings to light up a Cal defense that just allowed 41 points. That is a fair concern. However, SMU’s recent games have been low scoring. The Boston College game produced 41 total points, and the Virginia game produced 36. SMU’s defense held Virginia to 258 total yards. Meanwhile, Cal has scored more than 25 points in only one of its last three games. On the other side, SMU’s 72-point game at Louisville shows this matchup can turn into a shootout if early possessions go quickly. A Cal turnover in its own territory could also push the score up fast. On balance, the move toward 55 looks like an overreaction to one bad Cal defensive night.
The Pick: Under 55 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
SMU’s -1100 moneyline offers little value. That price implies roughly a 92% chance of an SMU win, and there’s no edge in laying it. Cal’s +650 is a long shot, though the Bears did beat SMU last season. We are passing on the moneyline. Both of our picks point the same way: a controlled game where SMU wins but Cal hangs around. If Cal’s quarterback situation clears up before kickoff, that would strengthen the underdog case. For more ACC handicapping, see our Duke vs. Virginia prediction and best bet. Cal’s next stop on its road swing is NC State, which we previewed in our NC State vs. Stanford prediction.
Our picks for California vs. SMU:
- California +18.5 (-110)
- Under 55 (-110)
NCAAF California vs. SMU FAQ: Saturday October 24, 2026
What time does the California vs. SMU game start?
California vs. SMU kicks off at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 24, 2026. That is 11:00 AM local time in Dallas and 9:00 AM Pacific for Cal fans on the West Coast. The game is the first of three straight road games for the Golden Bears.
What channel is the California vs. SMU game on?
The California vs. SMU game airs nationally on The CW. It is an ACC matchup, with No. 23 SMU looking to stay unbeaten at home against a Cal team trying to snap back from a lopsided loss. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM ET on Saturday from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas.
Where are California and SMU playing?
California and SMU play at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, SMU’s home field in Dallas, Texas. The Mustangs are unbeaten at home this season. Cal’s last trip to Dallas came in 2024, when SMU won 38-6.
Who won the last meeting between California and SMU?
California won the last meeting, 38-35, in Berkeley during the 2025 season. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele capped a late go-ahead drive with a rushing touchdown. SMU still leads the all-time series 2-1.
What conference are California and SMU in?
California and SMU both play in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), which both schools joined in 2024. That makes Saturday’s game a conference matchup. SMU enters 3-1 in ACC play, while Cal is 2-2.