Last Updated on September 1, 2023 12:40 pm by Alex Becker
Penn State Win Total Prediction
The Penn State Nittany Lions had a very good season in 2022. Penn State went 11-2 in head coach James Franklin’s ninth season and defeated Utah in the Rose Bowl 35-21.
Can the Nittany Lions duplicate last year’s success and win 10 regular season games for the second year in a row in 2023?
Penn State Nittany Lions Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 9.5 -150
Under 9.5 +125
2022 Season Recap
Penn State took care of business last season. The Nittany Lions beat the teams they were supposed to beat (depending on how you felt about Auburn) and lost to the two best teams they played in 2022 in Michigan and Ohio State. Head coach James Franklin’s offense ranked 15th in the country in scoring as the Nittany Lions put up 35.8 points per game. The Nittany Lions’ defense wasn’t too shabby either as that unit ranked 9th in the nation by only allowing 18.2 points per game. On top of that, Penn State ranked sixth in the country in both average scoring margin (+17.5 points per game), and yards per point margin (+5.6). Penn State was led by fifth-year senior QB Sean Clifford last season. Clifford threw for 2,822 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions while averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt and posting a passer rating of 150.5. But Sean Clifford is off to the NFL now, and so are Penn State’s top two receivers from last year in Parker Washington and Mitchell Tinsley. Penn State ranked 45th nationally in passing yards per game last season and their offense might not be as explosive in 2023 as it was in 2022.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: CB Joey Porter Jr., TE Brenton Strange, C Juice Scruggs, S Ji’Ayir Brown, QB Sean Clifford, WR Parker Washington, WR Mitchell Tinsley, DT PJ Mustipher, S Jonathan Sutherland, RB Devyn Ford
Key Player Additions: WR Dante Cephas, K Alex Felkins, P Riley Thompson, CB Elliot Washington II, WR Malik McClain, C Addison Penn, CB Zion Tracy, CB Audavion Collins, RB Trey Potts, OT J’ven Williams
Penn State lost six players to the NFL Draft this past offseason. Only Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, and TCU lost more players. In addition to that, four former Nittany Lions signed with NFL teams as undrafted free agents. Penn State simply won’t be the same team this year as they were last year. The Nittany Lions were fairly quiet in the transfer portal as James Franklin elected to flex his recruiting muscles by bringing in the 14th-best freshman class in the country according to On3.com. Part of Penn State’s player addition strategy may be that they felt comfortable with who they have. Only two new additions figure to even play backup roles on the club, not counting new kicker Alex Felkins and new punter Riley Thompson. But Penn State will have some serious questions to answer, especially on offense. The starting QB figures to be sophomore Drew Allar, who’s only thrown 60 passes in his college career. Penn State also lost tight end Brenton Strange to the NFL draft in addition to the wide receivers mentioned above and third team All Big-Ten center Juice Scruggs. It will likely be tough to replace the quarterback, center, tight end, and both leading receivers from a nearly-great team a year ago.
Penn State had a good secondary last season, but they lost cornerback Joey Porter Jr. to the NFL draft, in addition to safeties Ji’Ayir Brown and Jonathan Sutherland. The Nittany Lions replaced those players with four-star freshman corner Elliot Washington II, and four-star safeties King Mack and DaKaari Nelson. The Nittany Lions may struggle with the more pass-happy, skill-laden clubs on their schedule. I think Penn State’s defense will fall off a bit in 2023.
Key Coaching Departures: Offensive recruiting coordinator/wide receivers coach Taylor Stubblefield
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Offensive recruiting coordinator/wide receivers coach Marques Hagans
Penn State head coach James Franklin made the surprising decision to fire offensive recruiting coordinator/wide receivers coach Taylor Stubblefield this offseason. He was the only member of the Nittany Lions coaching staff not to be retained. This likely had something to do with Penn State missing out on two potential transfer wide receivers in former North Carolina State wide receiver Devin Carter and former Bowling Green wideout Tyrone Broden. The Nittany Lions did succeed in signing former Kent State wide receiver Dante Cephas, but he only committed once Stubblefield was fired. It was an odd situation and one that could leave the Nittany Lions a receiver or two short this fall.
In Stubblefield’s place, Franklin brought in former Virginia wide receivers coach Marques Hagans. Hagans was the Cavaliers’ WR coach for 10 years before signing on with the Nittany Lions. He also assumes the role of offensive recruiting coordinator that former wide receivers coach Taylor Stubblefield held. With multiple pass catchers from last year’s 11-2 team now gone, how Marques Hagans develops the current crop of Penn State receivers could wind up determining how well the Nittany Lions’ offense works this season.
It’s also worth mentioning Penn State head coach James Franklin. He’s widely considered one of the best coaches in college football and is certainly paid like one at $10 million per year. His record at Penn State is 78-36, and he’s gone 49-30 in conference play over nine seasons in State College. The last two times his squad won double-digit games (2017 and 2019) they failed to do so again the following year, which is something worth monitoring going forward.
NCAA Football Over/Under Prediction
Penn State sports the 60th-toughest schedule according to Sports Betting Dime. The Nittany Lions will play Ohio State on the road and Michigan at home this season. Penn State has a tendency to play Ohio State tough no matter where the game is, but they have consistently gotten beaten by Michigan. The Nittany Lions are 3-6 against the Wolverines in James Franklin’s nine years at the helm in Happy Valley.
I have Penn State losing to both Ohio State and Michigan this season. They would have to lose one more game in the regular season for the under to cash. Some candidates in order of likelihood are home against Iowa on September 23, at Illinois on September 16, at Michigan State on November 24, or at home against West Virginia on September 2. There’s also a potential trap game at Maryland on November 4 that will occur the week before Penn State plays Michigan. To take the over, you’d have to believe that Penn State would be perfect against teams other than Michigan and Ohio State, and I’m not confident enough in their team to bet on that. I think Penn State loses at least three regular season games, which is why I’m on the under of 9.5 wins for the Nittany Lions in 2023.
NCAA FOOTBALL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS UNDER 9.5 WINS +125