Last Updated on August 30, 2023 12:09 pm by Alex Becker
Michigan Win Total Prediction
The Michigan Wolverines were great in 2022. Michigan went 13-1 and won the Big Ten championship before ultimately losing to TCU in the College Football Playoff 51-45.
Can the Wolverines come close to matching their 2022 regular season win total in 2023?
Michigan Wolverines Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 10.5 -115
Under 10.5 -105
2022 Season Recap
Michigan went undefeated in the regular season, finishing the campaign 12-0 with an emphatic 45-23 win over Ohio State in the season finale. The Wolverines were filled to the brim with talent, as they boasted seven players that made first-team All-Big Ten in 2022. Michigan’s two biggest difference makers on offense were quarterback J.J. McCarthy and running back Blake Corum. McCarthy threw for 2,719 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions while also adding 306 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns on the ground. Michigan running back Blake Corum made first-team All-Big Ten and was named the Ameche-Dayne Running Back of the Year in the Big Ten in 2022. Corum ran for 1,463 yards and 18 touchdowns on the way to a career year. Both McCarthy and Corum will be back for 2023 as Michigan tries to make it back to the College Football Playoff this season.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: DT Mazi Smith, TE Luke Schoonmaker, CB D.J. Turner, K Jake Moody, DE Mike Morris, C Olu Oluwatimi, OT Ryan Hayes, WR Ronnie Bell, EDGE Eyabi Okie, WR A.J. Henning, QB Alan Bowman
Key Player Additions: IOL Drake Nugent, OT Miles Hinton, CB Josh Wallace, K James Turner, IOL LaDarius Henderson, TE A.J. Barner, QB Jack Tuttle, EDGE Josaiah Stewart, LB Ernest Hausmann, WR Fredrick Moore
There’s almost no way this Michigan team will be as talented in 2023 as they were in 2022. The Wolverines lost 9 players to the NFL Draft, which was the second-most behind Georgia and Alabama. Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh elected to reload through the transfer portal instead of rebuilding through recruiting as he tries to squeeze one last championship season out of his backfield combination of J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum. The Wolverines were great in the trenches last season on both sides of the ball. But Michigan is replacing center Olu Oluwatimi with former Stanford center Drake Nugent. Michigan is also replacing tackle Ryan Hayes with former Stanford tackle Miles Hinton. Those two might end up being worthy replacements, but it’s worth noting that Stanford’s offense ranked 108th in yards per play last season.
Bet on NCAAF Futures Odds from Any State! $750 bonus for All New Players!
The Wolverines have swapped out defensive tackle Mazi Smith and defensive end Mike Morris with a pair of upperclassmen in Kris Jenkins and Jaylen Harrell, respectively. The Wolverines will be hard-pressed to match the production of Smith, who was a first-round draft pick, and Morris who led the club in sacks last season. Michigan also swapped out second-round draft pick D.J. Turner with former Massachusetts corner Josh Wallace. I’d be surprised if Wallace is able to play as well as Turner did last season. On the whole, it appears on the surface that Michigan’s roster will be slightly less skilled this year than it was last year, and that might make things difficult for the Wolverines in a competitive Big Ten conference in 2023.
Key Coaching Departures: Co-offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Matt Weiss, linebackers coach George Helow
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore (promotion), linebackers coach Chris Partridge
Things should have been quiet on the coaching front this offseason considering Michigan went 12-0 in the regular season and was one game away from playing for the national title in 2022. But things weren’t quiet at all. Michigan fired co-offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Matt Weiss this offseason for what was described as him “inappropriately accessing” computer accounts that belonged to other people. This could be a big blow to the staff as Weiss was likely instrumental in the positive development that Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy showed last season. In Weiss’ place, Michigan simply elevated co-offensive coordinator/offensive line coach Sherrone Moore to the offensive coordinator role. The Wolverines had a great line last year and they ranked fourth in the country in average yards per rushing attempt. But as mentioned above, the offense lost two key linemen in addition to two of their top three pass catchers in wideout Ronnie Bell and tight end Luke Schoonmaker. It might be an uphill climb for Michigan on offense this season.
Then there’s the fact that Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh will be suspended for the first three games of 2023 due to alleged recruiting violations within the football program. The Wolverines are self-imposing this suspension in the hopes that the NCAA will take it easy on them in the ensuing investigation. Michigan hasn’t named an interim head coach, but whoever it ends up being will have to face East Carolina, UNLV, and Bowling Green all at home to open the year.
NCAA Football Over/Under Prediction
According to SI.com, Michigan has the 51st hardest schedule in the FBS. Their toughest tests will all come at the end of the year. In the Wolverines’ final five games, they will play at Michigan State, home for Purdue, at Penn State, at Maryland, and then home for Ohio State. For Michigan to cash the over they would need to go 4-1 or better in that stretch. That seems like a lot to ask.
It’s helpful to look at a team’s five-year track record when projecting an over/under, especially when they still have the same coach. Under Jim Harbaugh, the Wolverines have gone 10-3, 9-4, 2-4, 12-2, and 13-1. The past two seasons were some of Jim Harbaugh’s best as a college coach. But I see a bit of regression coming. Michigan has now beaten Ohio State each of the past two seasons. Before that, the Buckeyes had topped the Wolverines in eight straight contests. Ohio State head coach Ryan Day’s job isn’t in jeopardy, but if he loses to Michigan three straight times, fans, alumni, and the administration are all going to start looking at each sideways and asking some tough questions. I think Ohio State beats Michigan at the end of the year. That means that the Wolverines only have to lose one more regular season game to cash the under. The best candidate is a road tilt at Penn State late in the season on November 11th, but Michigan State or Purdue could trip up Michigan as well. It might seem crazy to go against Jim Harbaugh after the two seasons he’s just had, but he lost a lot of talent this offseason, and one of their more important coaches got fired with cause after his offense ranked fifth in the country in points per play in 2022. For those reasons, I’m on the under of 10.5 wins for Michigan in 2023.
NCAA FOOTBALL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES UNDER 10.5 WINS -105