Last Updated on September 2, 2023 11:56 am by Alex Becker
LSU Tigers Win Total Prediction
The LSU Tigers had an excellent season in 2022. LSU went 10-4 and won the SEC West in head coach Brian Kelly’s first season in Baton Rouge.
LSU ended the year by defeating Purdue in the Citrus Bowl 63-7. Can the Tigers duplicate last year’s success and win 10 regular season games in 2023?
LSU Tigers Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 9.5 -125
Under 9.5 +105
2022 Season Recap
After losing the opener to Florida State, LSU ripped off an impressive string of games where they went 9-1 until the last game of the regular season. Then the Tigers unceremoniously lost to Texas A&M in the regular season finale, lost to Georgia in the SEC Championship game, and trucked Purdue in the Citrus Bowl. 2022 was former Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly’s first year in Baton Rouge, and it couldn’t have gone much better. The Tigers notched wins over Auburn, Ole Miss, and Alabama, and even won the SEC West division. The star of the team on offense was former Arizona State QB Jayden Daniels. In Daniels’ first year with LSU he threw for 2,913 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He was a threat as a runner as well, as he led the team in both rushing yards with 885 and rushing touchdowns with 11. Daniels is back for LSU this season and seems primed for a big year. The 6’4” 210-pound senior has the second-best odds to win the Heisman Trophy according to BetMGM, behind only USC QB Caleb Williams.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: LB BJ Ojulari, OG Anthony Bradford, S Jay Ward, DT Jaquelin Roy, WR Kayshon Boutte, CB Jarrick Bernard-Converse, LB Mike Jones Jr., CB Colby Richardson, LB Micah Baskerville, DE Ali Gaye
Key Player Additions: CB Zy Alexander, LB Omar Speights, DT Jordan Jefferson, LB Ovie Oghoufo, CB Duce Chestnut, WR Aaron Anderson, RB Logan Diggs, OT Lance Heard, EDGE Paris Shand
LSU head coach Brian Kelly must have sensed that his team had a window to compete, as he was very aggressive in the transfer portal, especially when it came to addressing the defense. The Tigers were solid on defense last season, ranking 32nd in opponent points per play and 43rd in opponent yards per play. They lost eight players off of last year’s defense to the NFL, but only four of them were drafted, with the rest catching on as undrafted free agents. Many often say the talent disparity between the SEC and the rest of the country is borne out in the defensive front seven. That will likely be the case with LSU this season. The Tigers added senior linebacker Omar Speights from Oregon State and senior linebacker Ovie Oghoufo from Texas. Speights had 83 total tackles and 8 tackles for loss for the Beavers last season while Oghoufo racked up 54 total tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks as a member of the Longhorns in 2022. Both players are projected to start and should solidify one of the better front sevens in the country in 2023.
On offense, LSU likely won’t start any new faces, but they have a few skill players who could stand to improve an offense that ranked 28th in the country with 32.2 points per game last season. The first is backup running back Logan Diggs. Diggs ran for 822 yards and 4 touchdowns as a member of Notre Dame last season, and he should join incumbent back Josh Williams to form one of the better 1-2 punch backfields in the NCAA. Former Alabama wide receiver Aaron Anderson was a four-star prospect and figures to serve as the primary return man on kicks and punts while assuming a backup role for the WR-Y position. Anderson has yet to see any collegiate game action but his speed and quickness could lead to some big plays for LSU’s offense and special teams this year.
Key Coaching Departures: Special teams coordinator/recruiting coordinator Brian Polian, defensive line coach/run game coordinator Jamar Cain, defensive analyst Antonio Fenelus
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Special teams coordinator/outside linebackers coach Bob Diaco, defensive line coach Jimmy Lindsey
Former LSU special teams coordinator/recruiting coordinator Brian Polian left the team to become the athletic director at Division III John Carroll University. He was replaced by special teams coordinator/outside linebackers coach Bob Diaco. I like the move as Diaco has over two decades of FBS coaching experience, including as a head coach at UConn and a defensive coordinator at Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Purdue. LSU was 83rd in the country with a field goal conversion percentage of 71.43% in 2022, but with Diaco in charge of that unit, I could easily see that figure getting better in 2023.
Former Tigers defensive line coach Jamar Cain left to take a job as a pass rush specialist coach with the Denver Broncos this past offseason. LSU had one of the better d-lines in the country, and it will be up to new defensive line coach Jimmy Lindsey to continue that trend in 2023. Lindsey came over from South Carolina and suffered a health scare at the beginning of August, but he has since gotten out of the hospital and should be good to go for Week 1 in Orlando.
It’s also worth noting that LSU head coach Brian Kelly is one of the best head coaches in the game. Dating back to his years at Notre Dame, Kelly has won at least 10 games (including bowls) in six straight seasons. He likely left South Bend because he didn’t feel he could realistically compete for national championships there. He will likely have LSU in the College Football Playoff mix for years to come.
NCAA Football Over/Under Prediction
According to Sports Betting Dime, LSU has the 18th toughest schedule in the country this season. I firmly believe the Tigers will be up for the challenge. There aren’t many easy games in the SEC West, and LSU elected to play Florida State in their inaugural game in 2023. If the Tigers can avenge last year’s loss against Florida State, they could very easily be 8-0 going into the Alabama game in Tuscaloosa on November 4. That would be a best-case scenario for over-bettors because LSU could conceivably lose the Alabama game (though I don’t think they will) and only have to win 2 out 3 home games against Florida, Georgia State, and Texas A&M to close out the year. I like the Tigers’ chances to pull that off. Last year, it seemed that LSU was one year ahead of schedule as it was Brian Kelly’s first season at the helm. This season and the next should see LSU rise again to national prominence similar to how they rolled through everyone and won the national title in 2019. I’m bullish on Brian Kelly, Jayden Daniels, and the LSU Tigers this season, so I’m on the over of 9.5 wins for 2023.
NCAA FOOTBALL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: LSU TIGERS OVER 9.5 WINS -125