Pacers vs. Thunder Game 7 Prediction: Will Indiana pull off a stunning upset?

Pacers vs. Thunder Game 7 Pacers vs. Thunder Game 7

On Sunday night, the Pacers vs. Thunder Game 7 matchup at 8:00 p.m. ET will be the 20th-ever Game 7 in NBA Finals history. It’ll also be the first since 2016. Home teams are 15-4 in NBA Finals Game 7s, but will Oklahoma City cover as a 7-point favorite when it hosts Indiana tonight?

Game Matchup & Betting Odds

Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder

8:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, June 22, 2025

Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

TV: ABC

Betting Odds

According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Thunder are 7-point home favorites versus the Pacers. The total, meanwhile, sits at 215 points.

Pacers vs. Thunder Game 7 Public Betting: Bettors Backing Indiana

Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 57% of public bettors are currently backing the Pacers when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.

Oklahoma City Thunder

MVP Factor: Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander has been unreal—he amassed 72 points in Games 1 and 2 (the most ever for a player’s first two Finals games)

Supporting Cast: Jalen Williams, hot and stellar since mid-series (40 in Game 5), plus Alex Caruso’s experience and defense

Dominant House: OKC hasn’t lost back-to-back and owns a +20.6 average margin at home this postseason

Indiana Pacers

Underdog Run: The top-seeded Thunder held an 18-game better regular-season record, yet Indiana keeps fighting through clutch performances in every series

Haliburton’s Leadership: Playing through a calf strain and dominant in Game 6 (14 points, 5 assists), with a history of clutch game-winners

Turnover Edge: Forced 21 turnovers vs. 11 in Game 6—and have leveraged defense to slow the Thunder

Bench Spark: T.J. McConnell and friends provided strong depth—19 minutes per game with 11.3 PPG and 4.5 APG in the series

Keys to Game 7

Turnover Battle

Indiana must control the ball to limit OKC transition opportunities. They’ve won both Games 3 and 6 by doing just that.

Haliburton & Siakam Execution

If both pop offensively and Haliburton finds rhythm despite injury, Indiana’s chances rise.

OKC Home Resilience

A crowd expected to roar — as Jalen Williams said, “hair on your arm stand up a little bit” energy

Clutch Experience

Coach Rick Carlisle brings 2011 Finals experience; OKC’s Alex Caruso brings Finals Game 7 know-how.

Pacers vs. Thunder Game 7 NBA Prediction:

With home dominance and a dominant MVP-led squad, Oklahoma City edges this one in a tight battle. Expect a gritty, low-scoring affair common in Finals Game 7s (avg margin ≈7 points). The Pacers have been disrespected and counted out from the outset. While I’ve had my doubts that Indiana could pull off the series upset, I won’t overlook the Pacers tonight. Give me the points.

Expect a hard-fought, high-stakes showdown where defense and poise matter most. OKC’s home advantage and MVP performance likely tip the scales—and while Indiana won’t go quietly, the Thunder are well-positioned to win their first title here in Game 7.

Pacers vs. Thunder Game 7 Betting Prediction: INDIANA PACERS +7