This Warriors vs. Spurs prediction starts with a name missing from the box score. Stephen Curry will sit with an oblique tear when Golden State visits San Antonio for an NBA Cup group game on Friday night. Meanwhile, the Spurs arrive on a 10-game winning streak and sit as 12.5-point favorites with the total at 220. Below, we break down how the market has moved since the open and where the strongest value sits.
Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs — Game Info
| Where | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio Texas |
| When | November 13 – 9:30 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Golden State vs. San Antonio Betting Preview
Availability shapes this number more than anything else. The Warriors confirmed that an MRI showed Curry has an oblique abdominal tear and will be re-evaluated in two weeks. ESPN’s Shams Charania reported the absence could stretch closer to a month. Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis and Brandon Williams are also out. Charles Bassey is probable.
San Antonio has its own questions. The official NBA injury report lists De’Aaron Fox and Devin Vassell as questionable, Fox with left hip soreness and Vassell with left adductor tightness. Tobias Harris and Jayden Quaintance are out, and Victor Wembanyama is not listed. Any read here is provisional until the Fox and Vassell designations resolve before tip-off.
The Spurs are 10-2, second in the West, and 6-0 on the road. Their latest road win was a 122-96 rout at Phoenix on Monday, previewed in our Spurs vs. Suns prediction. The Warriors are 8-4 and sixth after Wednesday’s 115-108 loss at Houston ended an eight-game winning streak. Both teams won their opening West Group C game, and both last played Wednesday, so neither side carries a rest edge.
The ratings explain why San Antonio is laying double digits. Per Basketball Reference, the Spurs carry a +11.2 net rating and a 108.8 defensive rating. Golden State’s 120.4 offensive rating was built with Curry on the floor, so it overstates tonight’s attack. In addition, both teams sit in the bottom half of the league in pace, which limits the possessions in play.
Style adds another layer. Golden State takes 48.2% of its shots from three by Basketball Reference’s count, compared with 38.5% for San Antonio. The Spurs also protect the ball, turning it over on just 10.7% of possessions. That matters against a Warriors defense that forces turnovers on 14.6% of trips. On the glass, San Antonio secures 75.9% of available defensive rebounds, which limits second chances for a team that misses plenty of threes.
The market has already reacted hard to the injury. An AP preview published Thursday morning, before the MRI results came out, listed the Spurs at -10.5 with a total of 236.5. The number opened Thursday evening with San Antonio at -13.5 and the total at 218.5. At -650, the Spurs moneyline now implies roughly an 86.7% win probability, which leaves little room for value on that side.
History is not kind to this roster without its star. Golden State went 13-26 without Curry last season. Still, the Warriors beat the Clippers 124-112 on November 1 without Curry or Draymond Green, behind 37 points from rookie Yaxel Lendeborg. This is the first meeting of the season, and San Antonio won the last one 127-113 on April 1 at Chase Center.
Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | +12.5 (-110) | +450 | O 220.0 (-110) |
| Spurs | -12.5 (-110) | -650 | U 220.0 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of November 13, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NBA Odds – Futures – Props
Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Warriors | 37% | 63% | Spurs |
See the latest NBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Is the 10-Game Spurs Streak Already Baked Into the Number?
Start with the market. This number opened Thursday evening, after Curry’s injury was already public. Since then, it has moved a full point toward Golden State, even though 63% of spread bets back San Antonio. The moneyline shows the same pattern, with 91% of moneyline bets on the Spurs and their price still shrinking. That is reverse line movement, and it points to larger money on the Warriors side. No report explains the move, and the Fox and Vassell tags were already public when the line opened.
The research points the same way. San Antonio is 10-2 straight up but only 5-7 against the spread, and 3-5 as a double-digit favorite. Golden State, by contrast, is 8-4 against the spread and has covered in eight of its last 10 games. Both teams play at a below-average pace, and fewer possessions make a big margin harder to build. Blowouts also bring bench minutes late, which can trim a lead in the final quarter.
The case against is obvious. Curry was scoring 27.8 points per game on 45.7% from three, and nobody on this roster replaces that gravity. Wembanyama is averaging 30.3 points and 4.4 blocks, and the Spurs’ defense rates among the league’s top five. The Warriors are also just 2-3 on the road. If Fox and Vassell are cleared, San Antonio has the depth to bury a thin rotation. Also note that the best value sat at the opening number, and that number is gone.
The Pick: Warriors +12.5 (-110)
Who Takes the Shots Steph Curry Leaves Behind?
Someone has to absorb Curry’s touches, and the rookie is the obvious candidate. Lendeborg is averaging just over 21 points per game as a rookie. Without Curry and Green against the Clippers, he scored 37, the most by a Warriors rookie since Curry in 2010. He has already posted multiple 30-point nights this season. With the top option gone, his usage should climb from the opening tip.
Volume supports the read as well. Golden State’s offense is built on three-point volume, and attempt rate holds steady far better than shooting percentage does. Brandin Podziemski will take on more creation too, but the rookie has carried the heavier scoring load all season. That combination of volume and touches is what drives this angle.
However, the risk is real. San Antonio’s length, led by Wembanyama, can bottle up a first-year forward, and the Spurs will build their scheme around him. This read also rests on the same Curry absence as the first pick, so the two are not independent. If the game gets out of hand early, his fourth-quarter minutes could shrink as well.
The Pick: Yaxel Lendeborg Points Milestones: To Score 25+ Points (+160)
Our Final Word on Warriors vs. Spurs
This game turns on who replaces Curry’s production and whether Fox and Vassell suit up. Check the final injury report before tip-off, since either status could change how the Spurs’ backcourt looks. Our top play is Warriors +12.5 (-110), backed by reverse line movement against 63% of spread bets on San Antonio. We also like Yaxel Lendeborg to score 25+ points (+160), because his role grows the most with Curry sidelined.