The NASCAR Cup Series Chase reaches the desert on Sunday, October 4, 2026, for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The board reshuffled hard on Saturday, when Denny Hamlin took the pole with a lap of 186.787 mph and now leads the market. Below is the betting angle, then five picks.
Last Updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026
2026 South Point 400 — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas, NV |
| When | Sunday, October 4 – 5:30 PM ET |
| TV | USA Network |
2026 South Point 400 Betting Preview
Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile intermediate oval, and this race runs 267 laps for 400.5 miles. Stage 1 ends on lap 80 and Stage 2 on lap 165, leaving a 102-lap run to the finish. That closing stage turns on tire wear and fuel strategy more than raw speed. Qualifying handed Toyota the top five: Hamlin, Ty Gibbs, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe and Tyler Reddick. Kyle Larson starts sixth as the first non-Toyota. Josh Berry crashed in practice and starts from the rear in a backup car.
The market has moved sharply. Hamlin and Larson sat within one tick of each other on Tuesday in our own South Point 400 odds preview. Hamlin has since shortened to +125 after his pole run, while Larson has drifted to +350 despite winning at Kansas. The drift runs deeper. Joey Logano is now +2200, and Brad Keselowski and Ryan Preece sit at +6600. Starting position carries real weight here, so Toyota’s qualifying sweep explains much of the compression. Stage winner, winning team and top-manufacturer markets are live as well.
2026 South Point 400 — Top Odds to Win
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +125 |
| Kyle Larson | +350 |
| Christopher Bell | +700 |
| Chase Briscoe | +800 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1200 |
| William Byron | +1200 |
| Carson Hocevar | +1600 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1600 |
| Chase Elliott | +2200 |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, October 4, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NASCAR Odds – Props
2026 South Point 400 Best Bet – Kyle Larson +350
Kyle Larson (+350) is the pick to win, and the price gap drives it. Hamlin at +125 implies roughly a 44 percent chance in a 36-car race, and the handicapping does not support a margin that wide. Larson owns this track on the numbers. He carries an 8.9 average finish at Las Vegas, best among active drivers, and his 881 laps led here are more than any other active driver.
Form matches that history. Larson has two wins and a runner-up in his last three starts. At Kansas he led 235 of 267 laps, swept both stages and pushed his Chase lead to 26 points. Las Vegas is the second straight intermediate oval.
The case against is mostly Hamlin. He has won the last two Cup races here, led 134 laps in March, and starts on the pole. Larson must clear four Toyotas for clean air. He led 129 laps in last year’s race and still finished second, which is the failure mode to respect. A long green-flag run favors the front row.
South Point 400 Predictions: Mid-Tier Value Plays
Joey Logano (+2200) is the strongest track-history play on the board. He has four Cup wins at Las Vegas, most of any active driver, plus a 9.8 average finish in 26 starts. He is not cold either. Logano won at Bristol three weeks ago for his third win of 2026 and sits fourth in Chase points.
The counterargument is this season’s intermediate record. Logano has two top-10 finishes on 1.5-mile ovals in 2026, he ran 20th at Kansas, and he qualified outside the top 10. He needs a late caution, not a dominant run.
Chase Elliott (+2200) finished second to Hamlin in the March race here, so the package fit is proven. He has one win and four top-10s on intermediate ovals this season with an 11.4 average, and he ran eighth at Kansas.
Still, his longer record here is pedestrian. Elliott carries an 18.0 career average finish at this track and qualified outside the top 10. March could prove an outlier, not a new baseline.
Long Shot Picks for The 2026 South Point 400
Ryan Preece (+6600) has quietly become an intermediate-oval threat. His last three Las Vegas starts produced finishes of third, ninth and 11th. He has also been no worse than 10th in five of his last six races, including Kansas and Bristol.
What has to break right is a bunched-up race that rewards restarts. His broader Las Vegas history is poor, and he lacks the speed to run with the Toyotas on a long run.
Brad Keselowski (+6600) brings the best venue credentials outside the top of the board. He is a three-time Las Vegas winner, and his nine top-five finishes here are tied for the most among active drivers. RFK Racing also put all three cars inside the top 11 here in March.
Form is the obvious problem. Keselowski has gone eight straight races without a top-10 and ran 12th at Kansas. Backing him means trusting that track history outweighs a two-month slump.
2026 South Point 400 Final Thoughts: What to Watch
This race takes shape early. Watch Larson’s first run from sixth, because clearing the Toyotas is the whole question for the outright pick. Tire wear is the other variable, and practice failures will keep teams conservative on air pressure. That flattens long-run differences, which is where Logano and Elliott come alive from mid-pack. Hamlin, meanwhile, needs stage points to close his 26-point gap, so expect aggressive racing at the breaks. A scrambled final 50 laps is the opening our long shots need, much as our Kansas predictions laid out.
NASCAR South Point 400 FAQ: Sunday October 4, 2026
Who is the favorite to win the South Point 400?
Denny Hamlin is the favorite at +125, with Kyle Larson next at +350. Hamlin won Saturday’s pole with a lap of 186.787 mph and has won the last two Cup races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
What time does the South Point 400 start?
The South Point 400 starts at 5:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, Nevada. It is the fifth race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase.
What channel is the South Point 400 on?
The South Point 400 airs on USA Network, with streaming available through HBO Max. Radio coverage comes from PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
How many laps is the South Point 400?
The South Point 400 is 267 laps and 400.5 miles around the 1.5-mile Las Vegas oval. Stage 1 ends on lap 80, Stage 2 ends on lap 165, and the final stage covers 102 laps.
Who is on pole for the South Point 400?
Denny Hamlin is on pole after a qualifying lap of 186.787 mph in the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. Ty Gibbs qualified second, ahead of Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe and Tyler Reddick. Toyota swept the top five spots.
Who won the South Point 400 last year?
Denny Hamlin won the 2025 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He followed it by winning the Pennzoil 400 at the same track in March 2026, leading 134 laps.