Two 1-2 teams cross the Atlantic with very different quarterback situations, and the betting market has noticed. The Indianapolis Colts are 4.5-point favorites over the Washington Commanders in this Week 4 NFL International Series game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The spread opened with Washington favored by 1.5 points. Six points of movement is a lot for one football game.
Last Updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026
Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England |
| When | Sunday, October 4 – 9:30 AM ET |
| TV | NFL Network |
Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders Betting Preview
Both teams arrive at 1-2 after winning in Week 3. Indianapolis sits second in the AFC South, a game behind Jacksonville. Washington sits fourth in the NFC East, tied with Dallas. The Colts opened with a 41-23 loss to Baltimore, then pushed Kansas City to overtime before falling 33-30. They broke through 19-17 over Houston on a late Spencer Shrader field goal.
Washington’s path was rockier. The Commanders lost 24-22 in Philadelphia, got run off the field 37-20 in Dallas, then stunned Seattle 33-31 at home. That upset came with Marcus Mariota under center. He completed 19 of 31 passes for 183 yards and three touchdowns in relief of the injured Jayden Daniels.
Mariota starts again here. Daniels is officially out with a left elbow injury, and he is not the only absence. Guard Sam Cosmi, safety Nick Cross and running back Rachaad White are all out. Receiver Terry McLaurin is questionable with a hamstring issue, as is safety Percy Butler. Indianapolis is comparatively healthy. Head coach Shane Steichen ruled out nobody, with receivers Keenan Allen (groin) and Ashton Dulin (ankle) listed as questionable. Daniel Jones runs the Colts offense behind a Jonathan Taylor ground game that has already produced four touchdowns.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | -4.5 (-110) | -210 | O 46.5 (-105) |
| Commanders | +4.5 (-110) | +175 | U 46.5 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of October 4, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Colts | 34% | 66% | Commanders |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Colts vs. Commanders Prediction — Is Six Points of Movement Too Much?
Start with the number itself. Washington opened as a 1.5-point favorite. Indianapolis is now laying 4.5. That swing is almost entirely about the quarterback change, and quarterback news does move NFL lines harder than anything else. Still, six points is a steep toll for a backup who just beat Seattle on the road to a win. Mariota is a veteran starter by experience, not a rookie thrown into the fire.
The matchup math helps Washington too. Indianapolis enters ranked last in the NFL in total defense, surrendering 417.3 yards per game and 30.3 points per game. Washington’s defense is not good either, but it is stingy against the run. The Commanders allow just 82 rushing yards per game, third-best in the league, which attacks the heart of what Indianapolis wants to do with Taylor. Take away the run and Jones has to win this game through the air against a secondary that has already faced plenty of volume.
The case against Washington is real. Losing McLaurin would gut the passing game’s top target, Cosmi’s absence weakens the interior line, and 66% of spread tickets are already on the Commanders — so the market is not exactly offering a contrarian discount. Mariota also has a much smaller sample at full-time starter than Daniels. If Indianapolis protects Jones and Taylor finds creases against a defense playing without its usual safety rotation, this gets away from Washington quickly. We still think the price overcorrected.
The Pick: Commanders +4.5 (-110)
Colts vs. Commanders Prediction — Can Two Leaky Defenses Hold a Number Down?
The total opened at 49.5 and has been bet down to 46.5. That is a meaningful drop, and it follows the same Daniels logic as the side. Yet the defensive profiles argue the other way. Indianapolis allows 30.3 points per game. Washington allows 30.7. Combined, these two defenses have been giving up more than 60 points per Sunday between them. Indianapolis ranks 32nd in total defense and Washington ranks 27th, so neither unit has shown it can shorten a game.
Scoring has not been the problem for either offense. Indianapolis averages 24.0 points per game and Washington averages 25.0 — numbers that clear this total on their own. The counterargument is pace and quarterback caution. A 9:30 AM ET kickoff scrambles routines, Mariota is likely to play conservatively without McLaurin, and Washington’s run defense could turn this into a grinding, clock-draining afternoon. For more market context ahead of the Sunday slate, see our latest NFL picks coverage.
The Pick: Over 46.5 (-105)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
One secondary angle is worth noting in the moneyline market. Indianapolis is -210, which implies roughly a 68% win probability. That is a steep ask for a 1-2 team with the league’s worst defense at a neutral site. Washington at +175 implies about 36%. The Commanders just beat a better opponent than anyone Indianapolis has handled, and this spread had Washington favored when it opened. Treat it as a smaller-stake angle, not a replacement for the spread play.
Bonus Angle: Commanders moneyline +175
Washington’s NFC East rivals are all bunched early, which raises the stakes on every non-division game. Our full card for this one reads: Commanders +4.5 (-110) as the headline play, Over 46.5 (-105) on the total, and Commanders +175 on the moneyline as the bonus angle.
NFL Colts vs. Commanders FAQ: Sunday October 4, 2026
What time does the Colts vs. Commanders game start?
The Colts and Commanders kick off at 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026. The early window is standard for NFL International Series games staged in London, which are scheduled to suit a UK afternoon audience. That makes it the first game on the Week 4 Sunday slate.
What channel is the Colts vs. Commanders game on?
NFL Network carries the Colts vs. Commanders game nationally in the United States. The broadcast is exclusive to NFL Network rather than a Sunday afternoon CBS or FOX regional window, so viewers without the channel through a television provider will need a streaming package that includes it.
Where are the Colts and Commanders playing?
The game is at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England. Washington is the designated home team even though the venue is neutral, so the Commanders carry the home label on the odds board and in the standings. The stadium has hosted NFL games regularly since opening in 2019.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Colts and Commanders?
Daniel Jones starts for Indianapolis and Marcus Mariota starts for Washington. Mariota gets the nod because Jayden Daniels is officially out with a left elbow injury. Mariota already started and won in Week 3, throwing three touchdown passes in Washington’s 33-31 upset of Seattle.
Who won the last meeting between the Colts and Commanders?
Washington won the last meeting 17-16 on October 30, 2022, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. These teams meet only once every four years under the NFL’s rotating interconference schedule, so there is no recent season series to lean on for this matchup.