The Subway Series returns to the Bronx on Friday night, and the market has kept this one close. The Yankees sit at -140, the Mets at +117, with the total posted at 8. The pitching matchup is why the number is not steeper. Our headline play sides with the road team, and what this line has not done since it opened is much of the reason.
Last Updated: Friday, September 11, 2026
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York |
| When | Friday, September 11, 2026 — 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES Network, WPIX |
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees Betting Preview
Start with the arms. Nolan McLean carries an 11-8 record, a 3.06 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. Over his last five outings he has allowed four earned runs in 31 innings, and he has worked at least six innings in eight of his last nine. The soft spot is control. He has issued four walks in three of his last four starts.
Carlos Rodon is the sharper name and the shorter outing. His 3.09 ERA and 1.17 WHIP cover only 13 starts and 64 innings, and he has not completed more than five innings since June 10. His last four went 4.0, 4.0, 4.2 and 5.0 frames on 66, 76, 88 and 89 pitches. He has also walked 34 batters this season. In his only look at the Mets, on May 16, he lasted 3.2 innings and took the loss. Both probable starters are confirmed.
The standings and the recent form disagree. The Yankees are 84-62, second in the AL East, and they have won seven of 10 with a 2.83 team ERA. The Mets are 68-78 on the season. Still, they are 7-3 in their last 10 and have won four straight, including a 15-14 slugfest at Miami. Their run prevention in that window has been poor, at 5.76. Juan Soto has carried the offense at .275 with 24 homers, and he draws a left-hander.
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | +1.5 (-180) | +117 | U 8 (-105) |
| Yankees | -1.5 (+155) | -140 | O 8 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of Friday, September 11, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Mets | 31% | 69% | Yankees |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Mets vs. Yankees Prediction — Does Road Dog Have Better Arm?
The signal here is what the number has not done. This game opened Thursday evening at -140 and +117. More than half a day later, with 69 percent of run-line bets and 79 percent of moneyline bets on the Yankees, the price had not moved a cent. A line that freezes under one-sided action usually means the money behind those tickets is less lopsided than the count. That is not proof. It is a quiet signal worth weighting.
The research points the same way. McLean has been the better pitcher for two months, and he is the one likely to hand off in the seventh rather than the fifth. Rodon’s pitch counts suggest his night ends near 90, asking the Yankees bullpen to cover roughly four innings. A +117 price implies a 46.1 percent win probability. We covered how this market has priced the Yankees in our recent Rockies-Yankees breakdown.
The case against is not weak. The Yankees are 16 games better and winning at home, and their pitching has been excellent for two weeks. McLean’s walk rate is how this goes wrong, because a lineup that works counts turns four free passes into a crooked number. Rodon has allowed six earned runs across his last four starts. This is a lean on a live underdog, not a claim about which club is better.
The Pick: Mets Moneyline (+117)
Mets vs. Yankees Prediction — How Many IPs will Bullpens Own?
A total of 8 assumes two starters carry most of the load. One of them will not. If Rodon exits after five, relievers handle at least four innings, and late innings decide totals. Both starters also walk people, and Rodon is at 4.8 per nine. Traffic drives pitch counts and multi-run innings, which is the shape of recent Mets baseball. They have scored nine or more in four of their last seven games.
The park does little work either way. Statcast’s three-year park factors put Yankee Stadium at 101, and FanGraphs lands on the same figure. This is a modestly above-average run environment, not a launching pad. The counter-case is the two ERAs at the top of the game. Both starters sit near 3.05, and the Yankees have held opponents to 2.83 runs per nine over their last 10. A crisp five from Rodon and six from McLean gets this to the ninth at 3-2. Today’s Rockies-Tigers total breakdown works through a similar question.
The Pick: Over 8 (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
Both positions lean on the same fact. Rodon’s workload ceiling is the hinge. If he gives five clean innings and the bullpen holds, both plays are in trouble together. Watch the walks, and watch Rodon facing Soto with runners on. The opener also carries weight off the field, with the club holding a pregame ceremony marking the 25th anniversary of September 11.
Roughly 28 percent of MLB games are decided by one run, which is why the Yankees at -1.5 (+155) looks tempting and why we are not there. A home favorite does not bat in the ninth while leading. Here are the picks in one place: Mets Moneyline (+117) is the headline play, and Over 8 (-115) is the supporting position.
MLB Mets vs. Yankees FAQ: Friday September 11, 2026
What time does the Mets vs. Yankees game start?
First pitch is 7:05 p.m. ET on Friday, September 11, 2026, at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. It opens a three-game Subway Series, with the next two games set for 1:35 p.m. ET on Saturday and Sunday. The Mets bat first.
Who is pitching for the Yankees tonight?
Left-hander Carlos Rodon starts for the Yankees. He is 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and 70 strikeouts in 13 starts. Right-hander Nolan McLean goes for the Mets at 11-8 with a 3.06 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP and 179 strikeouts.
Who won the last meeting between the Mets and Yankees?
The Mets won the last meeting 7-6 in 10 innings on May 17, 2026, at Citi Field. That game closed out the first Subway Series set of the season. Rodon started the middle game of that series on May 16 and took a 6-3 loss.
What is the season series record between the Mets and Yankees?
The Mets lead the 2026 season series 2-1. All three prior meetings were played at Citi Field in May. The Yankees took the opener 5-2 on May 15 before the Mets answered with 6-3 and 7-6 wins. These three games in the Bronx complete the six-game season series.
Where do the Mets and Yankees stand in their divisions?
The Yankees are 84-62 and second in the AL East, three games behind Tampa Bay. The Mets are 68-78 and fourth in the NL East. The Yankees are 40-31 at home this season, while the Mets are 34-38 on the road.