Last Updated on July 28, 2025 9:56 am by Anthony Rome
The Mets (62–44) travel to Petco Park to open a series with the Padres (57–49). New York enters on a season‑high seven‑game winning streak, sweeping both the Angels and Giants on the road. Meanwhile, San Diego looks to capitalize at home, where they’ve been stellar with a 31–18 record this season. What’s the best bet on the board in tonight’s Mets vs. Padres matchup?
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
New York Mets at San Diego Padres
9:40 p.m. ET, Monday, July 28, 2025
Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Mets vs. Padres Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Padres are -123 moneyline favorites to beat the Mets, who are +113 moneyline underdogs. The total, meanwhile, is sitting at 8 runs.
Mets vs. Padres Public Betting: Bettors Leaning New York
As of this writing, our MLB Public Betting Page shows that 56% of the bets are on the Mets moneyline. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided so that you’re getting the most updated information.
Pitching Matchup
Frankie Montas Jr. has made five starts for New York this season, posting a 3–1 record with a 4.62 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 25.1 innings, totaling 23 strikeouts against six walks. He’s notably improved in July—unbeaten and sporting a 3.86 ERA in three starts. Montas also holds a career win at Petco, where he’s 1–0 with a 1.35 ERA.
Dylan Cease, despite a 3–10 record, has a respectable 4.59 ERA across 113.2 innings and 144 strikeouts on the season. At home, he’s much stronger—3–3 with a 3.48 ERA and WHIP of 1.26 in 51.2 innings. He’s logged multiple recent outings with eight to nine strikeouts, surrendering just one homer in his last 28 innings.
Key Matchup Storylines
New York’s offense is solid, ranking around 14th‑15th in MLB (roughly 4.2–4.4 R/G). They hit a lot of doubles and are efficient with runners in scoring position, but they lack frequent power and patience at the plate—particularly on the road. Meanwhile, the Padres produce slightly fewer runs (~4.0 R/G), boast strong contact skills (lowest strikeout rate in baseball), and benefit from Petco Park’s pitcher‑friendly confines.
Padres lineup leaders Manny Machado (.291 AVG, 19 HR, 63 RBI) and Xander Bogaerts add pop and consistency, while Luis Arraez brings high contact skills and is riding a 10-game hitting streak. Mets stars Juan Soto and Pete Alonso supply much of the power in New York’s attack.
Mets vs. Padres MLB BETTING PREDICTION
This matchup feels like a low‑scoring duel between two high‑strikeout, home‑pitching righties. Montas may have an edge in home‑records and momentum, but Cease’s dominance at Petco and striking arsenal tip the scales toward San Diego.
Expect controlled innings from both, with limited power production. New York’s streak and offensive balance make them dangerous, but the Padres’ home field and bullpen strength give them the upper hand.
Mets vs. Padres MLB Playoffs Prediction: UNDER 8