THE SPORTS REPORTER
BEST BET
TENNESSEE over *KANSAS CITY by 18
Jeff Fisher and his Titans know that either Buffalo or Cleveland is guaranteed to lose on
this day, making their own quest for a Wild Card berth that much more tenable. Privately,they’ll be sure to root for Buffalo, as that could create a scenario where three AFC teams
sit at 8-6 with two games left – and the Titans have to love their match-ups in the last
two weeks: the hapless New York Jets next week and a Colts team that will most likely
be sitting their starters in week seventeen. Vince Young’s passing performance has been
incredibly inconsistent – to be kind – but their run game has been steady and productive,
with both LenDale White and Chris Brown proving capable of carrying the load. As
the calendar takes us deeper into December and the weather turns colder, Tennessee’s
ability to consistently run the ball – to the tune of 133.8 yards per game – should give
them a big advantage in this type of game. Last week’s loss to the Broncos – in case you
weren’t paying attention – was the final nail in the coffin of Kansas City’s 2007 season,
as six straight losses have relegated the Chiefs to the basement of the AFC West and
looking forward to next year. Look for the Titans to pound the rock and exploit a KC run
defense that has been crumbling over the past few weeks. TENNESSEE 31-13.
BEST BET
PHILADELPHIA over *DALLAS by 3
The reports say that the Eagles “saw their fading playoff hopes take perhaps a fatal
blow” by losing to the Giants and dropping to 5-8 SU last Sunday. It’s only fatal when the
math says it is, but that early pronouncement will be good enough for the public to grab
their forks and play “please pass the meat,” their 12-1 SU Cowboys, who already own a
convincing 38-17 scoreboard decision in Philadelphia from November 4, when Dallas
was off its bye week and the Eagles had just spent the prior Sunday being pounded by
Minnesota’s offensive and defensive lines yet emerging with a win. The first downs margin
of the first meeting – 24-21 -- was a lot slimmer than the scoreboard margin and
Donovan McNabb did more than his share to put the Eagles in a hole that Dallas was able
to shovel dirt on by running the ball effectively while the clock ticked against
Philadelphia. Second seasonal meetings generally get played tighter and the Eagles – the
NFL’s bravest underdog road warrior at 27-13 ATS (68%) during Andy Reid’s tenure, have
certainly displayed enough long-term heart and pride to avoid packing it in until all postseason
chance has gone by the boards. PHILADELPHIA, 24-21.
BEST BET
WASHINGTON over *NY GIANTS by 8
Hard-fought win against division-rival Philadelphia puts the 9-4 SU Giants one step closer to clinching the first available NFC Wild Card slot available, which doesn’t guarantee the home favorite anything in this game, that’s for sure. Not with the 6-7 SU division-rival Redskins coming in as the desperado road dog with three extra days to prepare as they seek to stay alive for that second NFC Wild Card, a/k/a the Bobby Prize. Losing the services of immature QB Jason Campbell to injury was probably the best thing that could have happened to the Redskins, as very little meaningful tape exists on 13-season NFL veteran Todd Collins, the latest man with the golden opportunity. Collins was on the Kansas City Chiefs’ roster when current Redskins’ offensive coordinator Al Saunders was calling the plays over there, and one could argue that he is actually a better candidate to liven up the pedestrian Redskins’ attack than Campbell was. But Campbell was getting paid the big bucks and Collins only arrived in D.C. at the start of this season, so Campbell was playing. If forced to suffer with Campbell as an injury returnee here, we’ll take it, but either way, the Redskins have the healthier RBs and the better tight end for some sustained
driving. WASHINGTON, 24-16.
RECOMMENDED
BALTIMORE over *MIAMI by 14
Cam Cameron and the quest for Miami’s Reverse Perfect Season lives! The Ravens arrive in Cameroon as the world invents reasons why they are the perfect team to be 0-13 Miami’s first and possibly only win: Dead for the playoffs, off seven straight losses themselves. But hey, the Ravens got their egg-laying done early – very, very early -- in the Sunday night ultimate stinkeroo vs. the Colts. The smell is now out of their system. So how about playing to avoid the embarrassment of being Miami's first and possibly only 2007 victim? There isn’t a player in the Baltimore locker room that wants to be associated with that dubious distinction, and it could be a good motivator for an otherwise group of Nowhere Men that the public also sees as the worst point-spread team in America (2-11 ATS). But you could say that the lines are deflated for Baltimore now, and this Miami team looks like it could only win if they had five full years of steroid foundation under them and were playing against teams that hadn’t done steroids, ever. Ravens’ RB Willis McGahee was born in Miami, played college ball for Miami and as far as he is concerned, he’ll be damned if the Dolphins are bringing him down in his town. BALTIMORE,24-10.
THE SPORTS REPORTER - COLLEGE HOOPS AND NBA
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 16
RECOMMENDED
NORTH CAROLINA over *RUTGERS by 32
Scarlet Knights in early rebuilding stage . . . not where you want to be against an outfit capable of RAC-ing them up under the ESPN klieg lights. NORTH CAROLINA, 96-64.
RECOMMENDED
*ARIZONA over FRESNO STATE by 23
‘Cats shook off West-to-East travel hangover last Saturday to outfinish the Illini in
Chicago in OT. They return to action with exams in the rearview mirror. James Tchana’s back for this visitor, though he played but briefly against UNLV last weekend; G Dwight O’Neill remains out indefinitely. Despite Lute Olsen’s self-imposed exile, ‘Cats appear to be coming around, and could be primed to go on a bit of a roll. ARIZONA, 87-64
THE SPORTS MEMO GUYS !!
TEDDY COVERS ---> 12-1-1 THIS YEAR !!!!!!
BEST BET
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh -4 O/U 39
Recommendation: Over
Very quietly, under the radar, the Jacksonville Jaguars have become
one of the NFL’s strongest Over teams. The Jags have gone Over
the total in each of their last seven games, producing a combined
score of at least 41 points each time. Jacksonville’s offense has become
a well oiled machine, putting up 24-plus in each of those last
seven games. Quarterback David Garrard has only thrown one interception
all year, and Jacksonville’s strong running game, led by
the duo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, ensures that when
they reach the red zone, they score touchdowns. The Jags have
big play potential from their running game as well as their passing
game, and let’s not forget to mention the defensive touchdown that
Jacksonville scored last week –- again, finding ways to reach the
end zone. Pittsburgh has gone under the total in each of their last
two home games, in large part due to the deplorable conditions at
Heinz Field in foul weather. But prior to those two weather related
Unders, the Steelers at home has been the single strongest Over
play in the entire NFL over the past three seasons -- 17-3-1 since
the start of the 2005 campaign. Pittsburgh, like Jacksonville, has
extraordinary balance on offense leading to great red zone efficiency.
And while the Steelers have allowed fewer points than
any defense in the league this year, let’s not forget the litany of
weak offenses that they’ve faced. The last three strong offensive
teams that Pittsburgh has faced (Denver, Cleveland and New England),
each put up four touchdowns or more against this defense.
ROB VENO--- 9-3--2 -- THIS YEAR !!!
BEST BET
Atlanta at Tampa Bay -10 O/U NL
Recommendation: Tampa Bay
I fully expect a repeat of the 31-7 beating Tampa Bay handed
the Falcons a little less than a month ago. In that contest, the
Bucs’ defensive front dominated Atlanta in all facets. T-Bay
held the Falcons ground game to just 49 yards on 19 carries,
while also generating a tremendous pass rush that recorded
five sacks. Can’t see much variation from that overwhelming
performance because the personnel matchups favor Tampa
Bay so much. Situational handicapping is heavily tilted toward
the Buccaneers side as well. First off, Atlanta is on a
short work week, secondly, Tampa will be looking to clinch the
NFC South if they already haven’t (check the Monday night
result) and last but not least, fiery head coach Jon Gruden will
undoubtedly push his team to bounce back strong after last
week’s 14-point loss at Houston. Offensively, Tampa’s passing
game has surprisingly been in solid hands the past couple
of weeks without starter Jeff Garcia. Backup Luke McCown
has stepped in and gone 54-of-75 for 579 yards with only one
interception. Raymond James Stadium has been very good
to the Bucs all season as they’ve gone 5-1 straight up and
4-1-1 against the spread. The 10-point number they’re asked
to cover in this contest may look large based on their perception
as a pedestrian offense, but with Atlanta losing their
last three games heading into Monday night by 12 or more
points and the Falcons defense allowing 30 points per game
during that stretch, a double-digit TB win doesn’t figure to be
all that difficult. Tampa Bay will roll here with the final score
coming somewhere in the same range as the earlier meeting.
DAVID JONES (10-4)
BEST BET
Detroit at San Diego -10.5 O/U 45.5
Recommendation: Over
The Detroit Lions will try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive
in week 15 against the Chargers. Detroit was in a position to
end their losing streak last week at home before losing a heartbreaker
in the final seconds to Dallas. Despite the loss of top receiver
Roy Williams, the Lions’ offense played well enough to win
with a balanced effort. Unfortunately, Detroit’s defense has not
been able to make enough critical stops against solid opponents.
The defensive shortcomings have really shown up on the road
this season. In their four defeats away from Detroit, the Lions
are allowing a whopping 38 points per game. More of the same
should be in store in this contest for Detroit’s stop unit. While
San Diego has been inconsistent with their talented offense in
2007, the club is gaining some momentum as the postseason
nears. With a 7-2 record in their last nine games, the Chargers
are closing in on an AFC West crown. LaDainian Tomlinson has
put together consecutive efforts of over 100 rushing yards after
some rough stretches. San Diego has also played with much
greater confidence in their home stadium. The Chargers are 5-
1 at home with an average of over 29 points per game during
their current four-game home winning streak. The trends line
up very well for San Diego to have another big offensive day in
this one against a Lions’ defense that is lacking any confidence
on the road. While San Diego’s offense will do most of the damage
in this one, the Lions solid offense will do their share as well
against a defense that is good but not dominant. Detroit’s run
of Overs (5-1 last six games) should continue in this matchup.
MARTY OTTO
BEST BET
Buffalo at Cleveland -5.5 O/U 46
Recommendation: Cleveland
The Bills and Browns meet in an improbable game that will push
the winner into a favorable situation to make the playoffs as a
Wild Card in the AFC. Buffalo has proven to be a strong side worthy
of backing at home and has gotten solid play from QB Trent
Edwards (6-1 as a starter) as well as rookie RB Marshawn Lynch
and Fred Jackson, who both went over 100 yards last week. But
the Bills have struggled on the highway against formidable competition.
They were fortunate to escape Washington last time out,
but with the pressure of making the playoffs surrounding this tilt
we don’t expect the same heroics. Cleveland’s 32nd ranked defense
is somewhat of a concern here, but they have been getting
good pressure on opposing QBs of late which has masked their
rather porous secondary. And they do seem to step up the effort
with max performances at home. The same can be said for their
explosive offense as well. The Browns currently rank as the fifthhighest
scoring team in the league at better than 27 points per
game. Jamal Lewis has gone over the 100-yard mark in two of
his last three games behind the rock solid offensive line and his
ability to move the chains and provide balance will be a key in this
matchup. We’ll call for him to have a reasonably effective game
even against a stout Buffalo front seven, which will present Braylon
Edwards and Kellen Winslow with ample opportunities to make
big plays over the top. In the end the Browns will extend their ATS
mark to 6-1 at home and put a stamp on their ticket to the playoffs
JARED KLEIN
BEST BET
Jacksonville +4 at Pittsburgh O/U 39
Recommendation: Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars travel up to Pittsburgh to face the
Steelers this weekend and I don’t know if there is a more under
the radar team then the Jaguars. The Jaguars now sit at 9-4
SU and ATS after a 37-6 win over the Carolina Panthers. Jacksonville
outgained their opponent 427-149 in total yards in the
victory and also amassed 178 yards rushing with the combined
effort of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars’
defense was also fantastic in the win holding the Panthers’
offense to 149 totals yards, which broke down to 99 yards
passing and 50 yards rushing. Jacksonville has been fantastic
against the run since they gave up 300-plus yards to Tennessee
in Week 1. They are fifth in the league in run defense
and sixth overall in points allowed. They will face a Steelers
team this week that stood little chance in their blowout loss
to New England. If you take a look at just who the Steelers
have beaten, only three of their victories have come against
teams with a winning record (Cleveland, Seattle and Buffalo).
Since quarterback David Garrard has returned from an ankle
injury, Jacksonville’s offense has put up 24 points or more in
every game they’ve played. This game will come down to the
wire and the Jaguars’ offense has enough fire power to keep
this close or even pull the outright upset against a Pittsburgh
squad that may not be as potent as their record would indicate.
SONNY PALERMO
BEST BET
NY Jets at New England -24 O/U 51
Recommendation: New England
Way back in week one, New England beat the Jets in NY, 38-
14, and Jets’ head coach Mangini whined to the league officials
that the win was not deserved because the Pats spied on
them, employing illegal video taping. Since then, the Pats have
played with a huge chip on their shoulder, making the rest of
the league pay for this insult. They’re winning by an average
margin of THREE TDs per game, and aside from the Super Bowl
there is one other date they have circled on their calendar – December
16, when Rat Boy and his prop planes come to town.
Last week the Pats, off close wins to Philly and Baltimore, decided
to switch back to “Take No Prisoners” mode and wiped
out Pittsburgh by 21 points. Consider this: in NY, Mangenius
went for a FG on 4th and 10 from the Cleveland 20, down by
five points with only 1:47 left, while in NE, up by 21 points and
with under 2:00 to play, Beli and Brady were passing the ball
down field! The Pats may make history three times this season
– they may go undefeated, they will be saddled with the biggest
point spread in history (next week) and they may beat a team
by the widest margin ever (this week.) I don’t care what number
comes out, the books can’t make it high enough. Beli is ruthless
under ordinary circumstances, this week – NO MERCY! The
24-point differential in game one is going to seem minuscule
in comparison to the outcome of the rematch and the public
knows it, so buy this early as the number will likely rise all week.
BRENT CROW
BEST BET
Jacksonville +4 at Pittsburgh O/U 39
Recommendation: Jaguars
The 9-4 Steelers talked a big game last week before going to
New England, but when it was all said and done, they were put
in their place by the Patriots. Pittsburgh fans should have expected
it, they have been bad on the road all year, especially
compared to what they have done at home. While they have
lost to Arizona, Denver and the Jets on the road, the Steelers
are 7-0 thus far at home, with only two close games: the
mud bowl against Miami and a three-point win over Cleveland.
Pittsburgh currently leads the Browns by one game in the AFC
North race. Jacksonville is also 9-4, two games back of Indy in
the AFC South and leading the wildcard race. Obviously, this
is an important game for both clubs. Jacksonville has fared
well on the road, winning at Denver, Kansas City, Tampa Bay
and Tennessee and going 5-1 ATS for the year. They are coming
off an easy win over the Panthers last week and are healthy
as they have been all year. This has always been an intense
rivalry since the Jaguars came into the league, featuring
two tough, physical teams. Pittsburgh has the edge of playing
at home, but David Garrard is playing some solid football
and the Jaguars are certainly road tested. I have to take more
than a field goal in what should be a tight, low-scoring game.
TIM TRUSHEL
BEST BET
Seattle at Carolina +7 O/U 38
Recommendation: Carolina
The Panthers felt good about their win over San Francisco two
weeks ago after a “solid” defensive effort. They forced turnovers
and the offense broke a long standing funk of ineptitude to score
their first TD at home in quite some time. The feelings wouldn’t
last long as they got run over in Jacksonville last week and while
they are still mathematically alive in the race for a playoff spot,
the odds are impossibly long against them. To showcase how bad
the offense has been, their leading passer is Vinny Testaverde
who has all off 952 yards in six games. He was so bad last week
(84 yards and one INT) he was benched in favor of Matt Moore.
Seattle though is flying high after last week’s complete team victory
over Arizona, a win that sealed the NFC West and a playoff
berth. Seattle seems to be peaking at the right time and we would
be surprised if they let up this week as they continue to march towards
finding the spectacular play that led them to the Super Bowl
two years ago. But how can you trust a team that has nothing left
to prove in the regular season to lay more than a TD on the road?
They have nearly no chance to catch Green Bay for the second
seed in the NFC and they have long been a fade on the East Coast
in early starts. Complacency will set in for Seattle who may win the
game, but not by margin even against the punch-less Panthers.
FAIRWAY JAY
BEST BET
Tennessee -4 at Kansas City O/U 34
Recommendation: Under
Tough recovery for the Titans following an emotional overtime
loss to San Diego, as Tennessee blew a 14-point lead in the fourth
quarter. The Titans wasted a huge defensive effort that saw
them completely shut down the Chargers for 3-plus quarters.
Now they are on the outside looking in for a wild card birth, and
must travel to face a solid Kansas City defense that plays their
best at home. The Titans’ offense has struggled all season facing
quality defenses, and expect their strength of running the
ball to pound away on the ground versus the Chiefs’ minor weakness
of run defense. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s defense has been
stellar this season, and shutting down the ‘impotent’ Chiefs’ offense
should not be too difficult. Kansas City ranks 32st in total
offense, and manages just 4.4 yards per play following an embarrassing
showing and sixth-straight loss at Denver. They ran
for just 16 yards and finished with 129 yards total offense. The
Chiefs have scored 11 points or fewer in four of their last five
games with a high of 17 points. Kansas City’s last three home
games all went Under the total facing weaker defenses, and now
KC will have to battle a strong defensive team desperate for a
win. Both teams rely on their running game and short passing
attack, and with a clean game void of defensive or special
team’s scores, this one should stay under the already low total
DONNIE BLACK
BEST BET
Indianapolis at Oakland +10 O/U 45
Recommendation: Oakland
Oakland was outgained 445 to 233 last week, including 179
to 85 on the ground as they were manhandled by the Packers.
For those holding Raiders “Over 5” season win totals, the
final three weeks will be sweat out with tilts against the Colts,
Jags and Chargers. As if it wasn’t bad enough, they may be
without the services of RB Justin Fargas, who was ranked in
the top ten in the league in rushing before he left with injured
ribs last week. Indy was busy lighting up the Ravens on
primetime TV as Fargas was icing his ribs. Peyton Manning
threw three TDs in the first half and Joseph Addai (battling
injury himself) added a pair of scores before taking a 37-7
lead at the half. I am genuinely impressed by the Colts’ defense
week in and week out; they are fast, sure tackling and
playing with a ton of confidence, giving up just 275 yards and
16 points per game. But now they have to turnaround after
that TV game and fly across the country to play a team that
was just blown out and has injury problems. To say their heads
will be elsewhere may be an overstatement. Oakland, despite
a lack of consistency under center and possibly without their
best running back won’t quit on Kiffin. In fact, the Raiders fit
a nice profile of profit making team over the final four weeks
with new head coaches, making this a favorable situation after
all to get double digits at home even against the Colt
ED CASH
BEST BET
Philadelphia at Dallas -10.5 O/U 48.5
Recommendation: Over
This Dallas offense is as good as there is in the NFC and not too
far off of the Patriots in the NFL. They have scored at will all year,
and as they did once again last week against Detroit, scoring anytime
they needed to score. Tony Romo continues to impress me
with his head, arm and feet. He was cool, calm and collected in the
game-winning drive against the Lions and it doesn’t hurt that he
has weapons like Terrell Owens, Jason Whitten and the rest of the
backs and receivers. Dallas also has gotten solid offensive line play
all year, keeping the pressure off of Romo and allowing him to find
open receivers. This week, the Cowboys will have no trouble scoring
against the Philadelphia defense. They put up 434 yards and 38
points against the Eagles in Philly last month and have averaged 33
points per game for the year. If they get to 35 themselves, just 14
Philly points would give us an over winner and that should be likely.
The Eagles were held to 13 points last week by the Giants, but had
scored 52 in their two previous games. They have actually been
better on offense on the road lately and also have a healthy Donovan
McNabb and Brian Westbrook. The Philly defense has struggled
with good offenses all year and the blitzes should result in some
big plays for the Cowboys. Quick scores always help over players.
ERIN RYNNING
BEST BET
Washington at NY Giants -4.5 O/U 40.5
Recommendation: Over
Sunday night football will feature an NFC East clash as the
Redskins trek to New York to play the Giants. No question,
it’s been a long, grueling season for the 6-7 Redskins, while
they’re facing a must win in this contest. On the field, the
major news for the Redskins is the knee injury to quarterback
Jason Campbell. He’ll be relieved by veteran Todd Collins.
Keep in mind, Collins knows this complex Al Saunders offense
like the back of his hand. The results were rock-solid in his
relief appearance against the Bears where he completed 15-
of-20 passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns. I’ll look for
more of the same and no real drop-off from this offensive
unit. Meanwhile, the Giants are off two grinding road wins
against Chicago and Philadelphia. Of course, we remember
Eli Manning’s last game in Giants Stadium where he threw four
interceptions in an embarrassing 41-17 loss. Again, in their
last two road games you could see the simplifying of the offense,
while the Giants tried to win with the running game and
defense. Now, back at home, I’ll look for the Giants to open
the playbook more, while Manning seeks redemption. All six
road games of the Giants this year have gone UNDER the total,
while five of six at home have trended OVER the total. We’ll
look for that trend to continue as this one goes OVER the total.
WINNING POINTS:- NFL
****BEST BET
*Pittsburgh over Jacksonville by 24
Pittsburgh losing big to New England by 21 points last week helped lower
the betting line for this matchup. It’s set up a nice spot to get value and
back Pittsburgh.The Patriots are not part of this world so throw last week’s
34-13 result out. Do that and the Steelers look real good for this matchup.
Consider before the Patriots game, Pittsburgh ranked No. 1 in scoring
defense, allowing less than 13 points.They also were No. 1 in total defense,
while ranking first in pass defense and second in run defense. Jacksonville
has a solid defense, but it can’t match those statistics.The Jaguars have been
cripple-shooting going 5-1 against non-winning clubs.The Jaguars also have
several key defensive injuries. Out are middle linebacker Mike Peterson,
pass rusher Reggie Hayward and probably tackle Marcus Stroud (check status),
who was injured last Sunday after returning from a four-game suspension.
Losing Stroud impacts Jacksonville’s run defense.Willie Parker can
take advantage. It also makes Ben Roethlisberger’s play-action fakes more
effective. Pittsburgh entered its matchup against New England allowing
only one pass of more than 40 yards. It’s a plus if star safety Troy Polamalu
can suit up after missing the past three games. The Jaguars are a run-oriented
club.They don’t throw many downfield passes with David Garrard
and his mediocre wide receivers. Fred Taylor is running well. He’s rushed
for 340 yards the last three weeks. But he and Maurice Jones-Drew are
going to find the running treacherous at Heinz Field, especially if there’s
bad weather. Unlike the warm-weather Jaguars, the Steelers don’t mind
winter conditions. They are 7-0 SU at home this season, 5-2 ATS. They’ve
won by at least three touchdowns at home against four teams, including
Seattle and Baltimore. PITTSBURGH 34-10.
***BEST BET
*Kansas City over Tennessee by 13
Chasing a wildcard spot, the Titans have been overpriced by the oddsmaker.
Tennessee is much more enticing when it is taking points rather than
being in the role of a favorite.The Titans are 3-4 ATS this season as chalk.
The Titans also are in the midst of four losses in their last five games.They
are off a very physical overtime home loss to San Diego. Games like that
not only take a physical toll, but a mental one as well. Several Titans got
banged up, including left guard Jacob Bell (check status). The Titans are
being asked to cover as a mid-sized road favorite at Arrowhead Stadium,one
of the toughest road venues in the NFL.The Chiefs have won and covered
four of the past six times they’ve received points at Arrowhead Stadium. It’s
Kansas City’s final home game of the season. So expect a supreme effort
from Kansas City, especially after the Chiefs laid an egg last week in a
shockingly inept performance against Denver.The Broncos humiliated the
Chiefs, 41-7.The Chiefs’ defense let them down.Kansas City’s strength is its
defense. Defensive end Jared Allen has become a dominant two-way player.
Tamba Hali can rush the passer.The two have a combined 17 _ sacks.The
linebackers are good, too.Vince Young is still learning the passing game.He
has a horrific 7-to-14 touchdown-to-interception ratio. There’s an outside
chance that Larry Johnson could return to the Chiefs’ lineup. He’s missed
the past five games with a foot injury.The Chiefs have a young backfield,
but there’s talent at the skill positions. Quarterback Brodie Croyle has a big
arm, tailback Kolby Smith averaged 116.5 yards during his first two starts
and lead wide receiver Dwayne Bowe is a big, imposing target.All Pro tight
end Tony Gonzalez is having another big season. He’s a nice security blanket
for Croyle. KANSAS CITY 26-13.
**PREFERRED
*San Diego over Detroit by 22
Jon Kitna isn’t exactly Nostradamus when it comes to predictions. Kitna
would have been more accurate if he would have said the Lions would lose
10 games rather than win 10 games. That’s the direction Detroit is going
having lost five in a row.Things are only going to get worse for the Lions
this week following their morale-sinking blown home lead last Sunday
against Dallas. Now the Lions go on the road to face one of the better AFC
teams, San Diego. The Chargers are 5-1 SU and ATS at home this season.
They have won four of their past five matchups. Detroit is 1-4 SU and ATS
on the road this year.The Lions have been outscored by an average score
of 34-14 away from Ford Field. Kitna is beat-up. His offensive line has yielded
51 sacks. Shawne Merriman is coming on after a slow start. He’s recorded
six sacks during the past three games. San Diego’s improved its run
defense.That’s not good news for a Detroit ground game that’s mostly been
dormant with such awful performances as a minus 18-yard rush effort versus
Arizona, 23 yards rushing against Minnesota and 25 yards on the ground
versus the Giants. Don’t forget the Lions are without their best pass receiver,
Roy Williams. The Lions haven’t had a winning season since 2000.
Nothing has changed SAN DIEGO 32-10.
Green Bay over *St. Louis by 21
The gap between good and bad teams this year in the NFL is much stronger
than in previous seasons.The Packers are definitely a ‘have’ team.They are
back clicking on all cylinders with the return of punt returner Will
Blackmon pumping up the special teams. Green Bay’s defense remains
solid and its offense has become balanced with the emergence of Ryan
Grant, who has rushed for 558 yards and scored four touchdowns in the
last five weeks. Grant is averaging 5.4 yards per carry during this span making
a resurgent Brett Favre more dangerous.The Rams’ beat-up secondary
can’t stay with Green Bay’s talented wideouts.There hasn’t been a better
road team than the Packers under Mike McCarthy. Green Bay has won
seven of its past eight road contests, losing only at Dallas when several key
injured defensive starters were out, including Charles Woodson and Kabeer
Gbaja-Biamila. Both Woodson and Gbaja-Biamila are healthy.The Rams, on
the other hand, have failed to cover eight of their last 11 home games.
Green Bay is a fantastic 11-2-1 (84 percent) ATS in its past 14 games.The
Rams still could be stuck with third-stringer Brock Berlin if Marc Bulger
(concussion) and Gus Frerotte (shoulder) remain out.That would make this
even more of mismatch. GREEN BAY 34-13.
**OVER: New York Jets at New England – Bill Belichick won’t have
any qualms running up a score against Eric Mangini, whose offense has
picked up with the quarterback switch to Kellen Clemens
HISTORICAL TRENDS
Denver at Houston – The Broncos defeated the Texans, 31-13, at home in
2004.
Cincinnati at San Francisco – The Bengals edged the 49ers, 41-38, at
home in 2003.
Arizona at New Orleans – The Cardinals rolled past the Saints, 34-10, at
home in 2004.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay beat Atlanta, 31-7, in Week 11.
Baltimore at Miami – The Ravens knocked off the Dolphins, 30-23, at
home in 2004.
Buffalo at Cleveland – The Bills rolled past the Browns, 37-7, at home in
2004.
Green Bay at St. Louis – The Rams edged the Packers on the road last
year, 23-20.
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh – The Jaguars shut out the Steelers at home last
season, 9-0.
New York Jets at New England – The Patriots beat the Jets, 38-14, opening
week.The Patriots are 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS at home versus the Jets.
Seattle at Carolina – The Seahawks knocked off the Panthers, 34-14, at
home during the 2005 playoffs.
Tennessee at Kansas City – Kansas City got past Tennessee, 49-38, on the
road in 2004.
Indianapolis at Oakland – The Colts sailed past the Raiders, 35-14, at
home in 2004.
Detroit at San Diego – The Chargers got past the Lions, 14-7, at Detroit in
2003.
Philadelphia at Dallas – Dallas defeated Philadelphia, 38-17, in Week 9.
The Eagles are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven at Dallas.
Washington at New York Giants – The Giants trimmed the Redskins, 24-
17, during Week 3. The Giants are 3-0 SU and ATS at home versus
Washington.
Chicago at Minnesota – The Vikings nipped the Bears, 34-31, during Week
6.The Vikings are 4-1 ATS when hosting the Bears.
WINNING POINTS:- HOOPS
Sunday, December 16
BEST BET
Old Dominion over Virginia Tech by 17
Haven’t had one of those patented, targeted Blaine Taylor affairs in a while, but here
comes another in the series of mostly successful attempts to earn himself a huge portrait hung from the rafters as well as a recruiting nugget in the great state of Virginia. ODU’s head coach is waxing his mustache as we speak, preparing the Monarchs for a less intense version of Seth Greenberg’s defense. When the Hokies aren’t getting steals to fuel transition, their halfcourt offense is poor. ODU’s point guard is a heady player, they have multiple three-point shooters, and the other side’s point guards are freshmen.
OLD DOMINION, 72-55.
BEST BET
Nevada* over Central Florida by 22
Central Florida might be dialing Reno 911 for help as they ascend in altitude and attitude from the first meeting between the WAC and A-Sun in rare, in-season, non-conference home-and-home. UCF is 0-2 SU in true roadies to date, and their slim win vs. Nevada was the ever-skeptical “gym christening” variety, accomplished when Nevada was under the added burden of traveling a long way after a team member had been booted for being a bad boy at a party gone bad. Prior to that 63-60 season-opening defeat, Nevada coach Mark Fox said the focus would be more on his own team rather than Central Florida. Not now. Marcellus Kemp shot 1-for-8 from three-point range in that game and will do much better in this re-hook. NEVADA, 81-59.
Tom Scott
PLAY AGAINST any NFL road favorite of -4 or more who won SU as a road underdog two games back and won and covered last week as a home favorite.
26 Year ATS = 35-11 for 76.1%.
This week’s play = CAROLINA over Seattle.
TEDDY COVERS ---> 12-1-1 THIS YEAR !!!!!!
BEST BET
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh -4 O/U 39
Recommendation: Over
ROB VENO--- 9-3--2 -- THIS YEAR !!!
BEST BET
Atlanta at Tampa Bay -10 O/U NL
Recommendation: Tampa Bay
DAVID JONES (10-4)
BEST BET
Detroit at San Diego -10.5 O/U 45.5
Recommendation: Over
Mighty Quinn
Best bet 4-9-1
Cards + 3 1/2
Wild Bill
Under 48 Arizona-New Orleans (1 unit)
Miami +3 1/2 (4 units)
Over 43 1/2 Buffalo-Browns (5 units)
St. Louis +10 (1 unit)
Jets +24 (5 units)
Detroit +10 (3 units)
Eagles +10 (5 units)
Over 36 1/2 Skins-Giants (2 units)
Bears +9 1/2 (5 units)
Tampa -13 1/2 (1 unit)
DCI
NFL
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Seattle 26, CAROLINA 13
CLEVELAND 28, Buffalo 25
DALLAS 36, Philadelphia 17
Tennessee 20, KANSAS CITY 13
Baltimore vs. MIAMI: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
N.Y. GIANTS 26, Washington 17
NEW ENGLAND 45, N.Y. Jets 12
NEW ORLEANS 28, Arizona 24
Indianapolis 33, OAKLAND 13
Jacksonville 20, PITTSBURGH 18
SAN DIEGO 33, Detroit 18
Green Bay 29, ST. LOUIS 15
TAMPA BAY 25, Atlanta 9
Gator Report (Cajun-Sports)
Game: Green Bay Packers vs. St. Louis Rams
Technical Set: Green Bay is 16-3 Over when playing in Domed Stadiums, 7-3 Over versus the NFC West, 8-1 Over coming off a non-conference game, 35-15 Over vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game since 1992, 16-6 Over in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992, 41-24 Over after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992, 8-1 Over after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread this season. ST Louis is 13-4 Over vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better since 1992, 22-9 Over vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992, 6-1 Over when playing at home and facing Green Bay, 10-2 Over at home versus non-division opponents playing with revenge, 6-1 Over the game after facing Cincinnati, 8-2 Over versus the NFC North. Situational Set: Play Over NFL road teams against the total off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, 31-9 Over the last ten seasons. Play Over NFL home teams against the total off a cover where the team lost as an underdog against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more, 35-14 Over the last ten years. Play Over NFL road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, after the first month of the season, 36-11 Over the last five seasons. After Game 13 of the season Play Over on non-divisional road favorites of 5+ points when they are coming off a SU win in their last game, 18-6 Over since 1989, this Situational Set has posted a record of 8-1 Over the last three seasons. Two of the last three in this series played in St Louis have gone over the posted total and six of the last ten overall.
Selection: GREEN BAY PACKERS / ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER
Gator's Super System Selections
Each week during the football, basketball and baseball season's we will post our Top Rated System Selections along with the qualifying system.
Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
System: Play AGAINST a road underdog of more than 2 points with a total under 59 points off a non-saturday home contest allowing 32+ points in their last game and a road contest allowing 31+ points in their game before that, 22-2 ATS
Selection: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-)
NFL (Sunday)
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play On NFL home teams off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG), 30-6 ATS since 1983.
SELECTION: PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-)
North Star Sports Service
NFL - 12/16/2007 BUFFALO atCLEVELAND Under 45.5
NFL - 12/16/2007 JACKSONVILLE 3.5
NFL - 12/16/2007 SEATTLE atCAROLINA Over 38
NFL - 12/16/2007 KANSAS CITY 4
NFL - 12/16/2007 DETROIT 10
NFL - 12/16/2007 WASHINGTON atNY GIANTS Over 40
The Sports Reporter
BEST BET
TENNESSEE over *KANSAS CITY by 18
BEST BET
PHILADELPHIA over *DALLAS by 3
BEST BET
WASHINGTON over *NY GIANTS by 8
RECOMMENDED
BALTIMORE over *MIAMI by 14
EROCKMONEY
(1.) Green Bay (-9) at St. Louis
This a nice matchup for the Pack and their high powered passing attack. The Rams have had a tough battling through injuries and a poor defense. The Rams usually play well in the dome, but the Pack are playing solid ball and won't slip up in this one. The emergence of Ryan Grant has added another phase to the Packers offense making them a much more complete team. The Packers defense should pressure Bulger all game and stuff Jackson on the run.
Pick: Packers by 14
(2.) Carolina (+7.5) v. Seattle
The Panthers are playing awful at this point in the season are extremely tough to recommend as a "play on". Matt Moore, an undrafted quarterback, might be getting the start this week as well. I just can't bring myself to see the Seahawks a 7.5 road favorite against any team in the League. I don't care if the Panthers were starting Mandy Moore, I have to recommend the game this week. It's one thing to play well below expectations, but its another to get blown out week after week. That is what costs coaches their job. The Panthers are professionals and have to have some bite left in them and I expect to see that on the field on the week.
Pick: Panthers by 6
(3.) Pittsburgh (-3) v. Jacksonville
The Jaguars have owned the Steelers over the last few years and has been a favorite play of mine. However, the public has really taken to this trend as well. Everywhere I look everyone is talking of how J-ville owns the Steelers and how the Patriots destroyed the Steelers last week. The Steelers have heard this well, I'm sure. I'll take the home team with the marginal spread.
Pick: Steelers by 7
(Blowout of the Week) Baltimore (-3.5) at Miami
The Ravens still have some pride left and the Dolphins are terrible. I'm not buying the talk of "this week is the one" for Miami. Ravens still have some players on that defense and McGahee is due for a big game. I'll go with the Ravens in a rout.
Pick: Ravens by 17
(Upset Special) Chicago (+10.5) at Minnesota
Are the Vikings really a dominate team all of sudden? This mirage will come to end shortly and I expect the Bears to rally around Orton, as they did two seasons ago. The Vikings are playing well, yet I expect these divisional rivals to have close battle on Monday night in the dome. Bears play inspired defense and pull the shocker.
Pick: Bears by 3
(Under 48) Arizona at New Orleans
I'm not expecting the shootout everyone is calling for in this one. I think the Cardinals will try to lean on James and keep the Saints offense off the field. The Cards will attempt to take Colston out of the game, which is really the Saints only offensive weapon. I expect a real battle in this one and the defenses will play better than expected.
(Under 45) Indianapolis at Oakland
The Raiders will struggle to score more than 10 points in this game. The Colts offense will be slowed outside the doem and off the turf coupled with the poor field conditions in Oakland. Colts may cruise but don't expect many points on the scoreboard.
Leroy Handicapping Contest
Winners goto the final 4
Andy Iskoe
BI TEAM LINE
258 Bucs UN39
261 Bills +5.5
266 Steelers -3.5
270 Panthers +7.5
272 Chiefs +3.5
273 Colts -10.5
Best Bet: 282 Vikings -10.5
Vs
Jorge Gonzales
BI TEAM LINE
262 Browns UN41
280 Giants UN36
266 Steelers UN36
257 Falcons +13
259 Ravens -3
270 Panthers +7.5
Best Bet: 261 Rams +9
DOC
BI TEAM LINE
270 Panthers OV37
282 Vikings -10.5
272 Chiefs +3.5
60 Dolphins +3
266 Steelers OV36
274 Raiders +10.5
Best Bet: 277 Eagles +10
Vs
Adam Meyer
BI TEAM LINE
258 Bucs -13
261 Bills +5.5
259 Ravens -3
255 Cards +4
263 Packers OV45
266 Steelers -3.5
Best Bet: 254 49ers +8.5
Reply With Quote
HILTON
#1- JACKSONVILLE
#2- TAMPA BAY
#3- INDIANAPOLIS
#4- NEW ORLEANS
#5- NY GIANTS (tie)
#5- MINNESOTA (tie)