UFC Fight Night Predictions
In a nearly sports-less world right now, the UFC is marching on with a fan-less event in Brazil. Here’s some betting considerations for UFC Fight Night 170.
UFC Fight Night 170 will be held from Ginasio Nilson Nelson in Brasilia, Brazil. The undercard begins at 3PM ET and will air live on ESPN+.
24101 Charles Oliveira vs. 24102 Kevin Lee
The main event for today’s car is a lightweight clash featuring Kevin Lee (18-5) against Charles Oliveira (28-8). According to oddsmakers, Lee is the favorite in this bout, as he is listed with -150 odds to win. Oliveira is listed with a money line of +135 to prevail. Lee actually failed to make weight, so this bout is being contested at 158.5 pounds. This entire card will be held in an empty arena, so it is interesting to see how that will play out in the fights. Lee is coming off a first-round KO win over Gregor Gillespie in November, but he is just 2-3 in his last five fights. Oliveira is riding a six-fight win streak right now following a first-round KO over Jared Gordon. Both men are finishers. Oliveira has 18 submissions and eight KO’s. Lee has eight submissions and three knockouts. This should be an explosive fight, but I like the way that Oliveira has been fighting. He has shown an ability to control a fight with his length and submission grappling. Lee has struggled to win the marquee fights in his career and his struggles to cut weight likely means he’s fatigued or somewhat injured. I am rolling the dice on the underdog today. UFC Fight Night Prediction: Charles Oliveira +135
24105 Demian Maia vs. 24106 Gilbert Burns
The co-main event tonight is a welterweight clash between Demian Maia (28-9) and Gilbert Burnes (17-3). Oddsmakers have Burns as the favorite here, giving him -175 odds to win. Maia is listed with a money line of +150 to prevail. Maia will be fighting in his home country and is coming off a dominant showing against Ben Askren last October, securing a third-round choke. Burns is a on a four-fight win streak after earning a decision over Gunnar Nelson in September. Burns is also Brazilian, so both men will be looking to earn a big win in their home country. Both men have great grappling ability, while Burns is stronger on the feet. However, Maia has been in deep waters before and faced a lot of the best in the weight class. This is the biggest test for Burns yet. Maia has had trouble with big and physical opponents, but I think Burns is a little too green to this type of pressure matchup. I expect Maia to catch Burns being too aggressive and use his elite jiu-jitsu to secure a victory. UFC Fight Night Prediction: Demian Maia +150