Race day has arrived in Monte Carlo, and the betting board has a new headliner. Kimi Antonelli stormed to his first Monaco pole on Saturday with a lap of 1:12.051, edging Max Verstappen by 0.043 seconds.
The championship leader brings a four-race winning streak into Sunday's 78-lap Grand Prix, and the market has responded accordingly. Below is the full pre-race picture and the top 10 on the odds board. We also break down our top pick to win, a value play at a longer price, and additional race-day angles.
Last Updated: Saturday, June 6, 2026
2026 MONACO GRAND PRIX DATE, TIME & HOW TO WATCH | |
|---|---|
| Where | Circuit de Monaco, Monte Carlo, Monaco |
| When | Sunday, June 7 – 9:00 AM ET |
| TV | Apple TV |
Pre-Race Report
Qualifying delivered drama from start to finish. Antonelli snatched pole from Verstappen by 0.043 seconds, while Lewis Hamilton qualified third for Ferrari, just over two tenths back. Charles Leclerc's final flying lap ended against the wall at Tabac, and the home favorite stopped his damaged Ferrari at Rascasse. He will line up fourth.
The official starting grid mirrors the qualifying order, with no grid penalties reported. Isack Hadjar lines up fifth for Red Bull, ahead of George Russell in the second Mercedes. McLaren had a quiet session by its standards, with Oscar Piastri seventh and Lando Norris eighth. Pierre Gasly and Liam Lawson complete the top 10. This is a standard race weekend, so there was no sprint race on Saturday.
The pole sitter arrives in formidable form. Antonelli also topped final practice on Saturday ahead of Leclerc and Hamilton. He won last weekend's Canadian Grand Prix for his fourth consecutive victory and now sits 43 points clear of George Russell, 131 to 88. Russell retired in Montreal, while Hamilton held off Verstappen for second. Mercedes leads the Constructors' Championship with 219 points, 72 ahead of Ferrari.
Saturday flipped the market on its head. Leclerc entered the weekend as the favorite in our 2026 Monaco Grand Prix odds preview. After his Q3 crash, he has drifted well down the board. For how the Mercedes winning streak reached Monaco, see our Canadian Grand Prix predictions from last week.
2026 MONACO GRAND PRIX – TOP ODDS TO WIN | |
|---|---|
| Name | Odds |
| Kimi Antonelli | -250 |
| Max Verstappen | +275 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +750 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1400 |
| George Russell | +5000 |
| Isack Hadjar | +6600 |
| Lando Norris | +10000 |
| Oscar Piastri | +10000 |
| Liam Lawson | +50000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +50000 |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, June 6, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest F1 Odds - Props
Top Pick to Win — Kimi Antonelli
The Pick: Kimi Antonelli to win (-250)
Monaco rewards track position more than any circuit on the calendar, and Antonelli owns the most valuable piece of real estate on the grid. He starts from pole in the fastest car of the weekend. He topped final practice, then beat Verstappen in a straight fight for pole. Add a four-race winning streak and a 43-point championship cushion, and the case for the favorite is about as clean as Monaco offers.
The case against is the price, not the driver. At -250, the implied probability is roughly 71 percent, which leaves little margin for the chaos this race reliably produces. The feed prices a safety car appearance at -350, and a poorly timed neutralization can hand the lead to whoever has not yet pitted. One slow stop in a tight pit lane can do the same. Verstappen sits 0.043 seconds and one strategy call away. Still, if Antonelli leads into Sainte Devote, the data points all run in his favor. We will take the chalk and keep stakes sensible.
Value Play — Lewis Hamilton
The Pick: Lewis Hamilton to win (+750)
Hamilton is the live longshot on the front two rows. He qualified third, within a quarter of a second of pole. He also arrives off a runner-up finish in Canada, where he held off Verstappen on merit. Ferrari showed pace all weekend in Monte Carlo, with its cars second and third in final practice. If the two ahead trip over a safety car window or a slow stop, Hamilton is the driver positioned to collect.
The case against is obvious. Overtaking at Monaco is close to impossible, so a Hamilton win likely requires misfortune for both Antonelli and Verstappen. That is a real dependency, and it is why the price sits at +750. This is a small-stakes value play, not a primary position.
Race Day Outlook — Picks and Final Thoughts
The secondary markets offer one angle we like. In the head-to-head matchup market, Oscar Piastri is priced at -200 to beat teammate Lando Norris. Piastri starts seventh, one spot ahead of Norris, at the track where grid position converts to finishing position more reliably than anywhere else. The case against is twofold: -200 is a steep price, and a single strategy offset under a safety car could flip the McLarens. Norris also won this race last year, so the matchup is hardly one-sided on talent. We still lean on track position and take Piastri.
For the broadcast, watch the opening run to Sainte Devote and the first round of pit stops. A safety car is priced at -350 to appear. That tempts teams to stretch the opening stint and react to a neutralization rather than commit to a fixed window. Track position decides this race, so the leaders will defend it with tire management rather than raw pace. Meanwhile, Leclerc's recovery from fourth and Russell's response to his Montreal retirement are the storylines worth tracking behind the top two.
Here is the full card for Sunday:
- Top pick: Kimi Antonelli to win (-250)
- Value play: Lewis Hamilton to win (+750), small stakes
- Matchup: Oscar Piastri to beat Lando Norris (-200)
2026 Monaco Grand Prix Betting FAQ
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix?
Kimi Antonelli is the favorite at -250 via TheSpread.com. The Mercedes driver starts from pole position and has won four consecutive Grands Prix entering Monaco.
Who is on pole for the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix?
Kimi Antonelli took pole position with a lap of 1:12.051, beating Max Verstappen by 0.043 seconds. Lewis Hamilton qualified third for Ferrari.
When is the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix?
The 2026 Monaco Grand Prix is scheduled for Sunday, June 7, 2026, with lights out at 9:00 AM ET (3:00 PM local time) at the Circuit de Monaco.
What channel is the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix on?
The 2026 Monaco Grand Prix streams live on Apple TV, which holds exclusive U.S. broadcast rights for the 2026 Formula 1 season.
Who won the Monaco Grand Prix last year?
Lando Norris won the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix for McLaren, finishing ahead of Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri.
How many laps is the Monaco Grand Prix?
The race runs 78 laps of the 3.337-kilometre Circuit de Monaco in Monte Carlo.