Conference USA takes over Tuesday night in Springfield as Sam Houston State visits Missouri State in a matchup of teams searching for a turnaround. Missouri State is a 4.5-point favorite on the spread with the total sitting at 51. Both teams lost last week, and both defenses have been tested in very different ways. One side of this number looks more appealing than the other, and the reasons come down to how each team’s strength lines up against the other’s weakness.
Last Updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026
Sam Houston State vs. Missouri State — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield, MO |
| When | Tuesday, October 27 – 8:00 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Sam Houston State vs. Missouri State Betting Preview
Sam Houston State arrives at 1-6 overall and 0-3 in Conference USA. The Bearkats have dropped four straight, most recently a 30-24 home loss to New Mexico State last Wednesday. That game summed up their season. Quarterback Landyn Locke threw for 235 yards, including an 81-yard touchdown to Tim Burns Jr., but the run game produced just 11 yards, according to the KBTX game recap. Sam Houston State ranks last in FBS in rushing, so Locke is carrying the offense almost alone.
The defense tells a different story. The Bearkats rank among the nation’s best at limiting passing yards, allowing roughly 141 per game through the air. However, they have been gashed on the ground, giving up about 200 rushing yards per game.
Missouri State sits at 2-5 and 1-2 in league play. The Bears beat Kennesaw State on a walk-off field goal two weeks ago, then gave up 61 points in a loss at Delaware last Tuesday. Duke transfer Henry Belin IV has sparked the offense since taking over at quarterback. He is 54-of-74 for 637 yards and four touchdowns in two starts, with back-to-back 300-yard games. Receiver Isaiah Myers leads Conference USA with 796 receiving yards, per the Missouri State game notes. Linebacker Jared Lloyd anchors the defense with 79 tackles, or 11.3 per game.
The series is tied 1-1. Sam Houston State won the last meeting 20-17 in Springfield back in 2006. This is the first time the programs meet as FBS and Conference USA opponents.
Sam Houston State vs. Missouri State Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston State | +4.5 (-105) | +170 | O 51 (-110) |
| Missouri State | -4.5 (-115) | -200 | U 51 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Tuesday, October 27, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Sam Houston State vs. Missouri State Prediction — Can the Bearkats Keep It Within the Number?
This line opened with Missouri State laying 5 and has dipped half a point. The move is small, but it leans toward the underdog. The key matchup explains why. Missouri State’s offense runs through Belin and Myers, and Belin has topped 300 passing yards in each of his two starts. Still, Sam Houston State’s secondary is the one unit on its roster that has held up all season. If the Bearkats can limit explosive throws, the Bears lose their easiest path to separation.
Meanwhile, Missouri State’s defense has been the bigger liability. The Bears gave up 61 points at Delaware and rank near the bottom of FBS in scoring defense. That gives Locke a real chance to find big plays. He averages about 236 passing yards per game and has thrown 12 touchdown passes this season.
The case against the Bearkats is real, though. They cannot run the ball, which makes them one-dimensional and prone to stalled drives. They also face a short week, traveling after a Wednesday game while Missouri State played last Tuesday. If Belin stays hot and the Bears run on that porous Sam Houston State front, this could get away. Even so, a winless conference team catching points against a defense this vulnerable offers enough value at a price slightly better than standard.
The Pick: Sam Houston State +4.5 (-105)
Sam Houston State vs. Missouri State Prediction — Will a Leaky Defense Push This Past the Number?
The total opened at 50 and has climbed a point. That move makes sense on the surface. Missouri State’s defense has struggled badly, and its passing offense is producing. However, the other side of the matchup pulls in the opposite direction. Sam Houston State has not topped 24 points in any game against an FBS opponent this season. The Bearkats scored just three points in losses to both Liberty and Western Kentucky earlier this month.
The Bearkats’ lack of a run game also limits their ability to sustain drives, which shortens the game. In addition, their pass defense matches up directly with the Bears’ best weapon. The risk is obvious: Missouri State’s defense could hand Sam Houston State short fields and quick scores, and the Bears’ offense could pile up points in a blowout. Still, with the number moving up, the better value sits with fewer points.
The Pick: Under 51 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
Midweek Conference USA games often come down to which team handles the short turnaround better. Sam Houston State faces the tougher spot here, with less rest and a road trip to Springfield. That said, Missouri State has only two wins and just allowed 61 points in its last outing. There is no standalone moneyline or prop angle strong enough to add, so the focus stays on the two main positions. Both rely on the Bearkats’ pass defense slowing the Bears’ best unit.
Here is a recap of the picks for this game:
- Sam Houston State +4.5 (-105)
- Under 51 (-110)
NCAAF Sam Houston State vs. Missouri State FAQ: Tuesday October 27, 2026
What time does the Sam Houston State vs. Missouri State game start?
Sam Houston State vs. Missouri State kicks off at 8:00 PM ET (7:00 PM local time) on Tuesday, October 27, 2026. It is a midweek Conference USA game, and both schools enter coming off losses.
What channel is the Sam Houston State vs. Missouri State game on?
The Sam Houston State vs. Missouri State game airs nationally on ESPN2. Kickoff is set for 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday night, so fans across the country can watch this Conference USA matchup without needing a regional broadcast.
Where are Sam Houston State and Missouri State playing?
Sam Houston State and Missouri State play at Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Springfield, Missouri. Missouri State is the home team, and the stadium holds roughly 17,500 fans. It is Missouri State’s first home game since its walk-off win over Kennesaw State.
What conference are Sam Houston State and Missouri State in?
Sam Houston State and Missouri State both play in Conference USA, so this is a conference game. Missouri State enters 1-2 in league play, while Sam Houston State is 0-3. It is the first meeting between the two schools as FBS and Conference USA opponents.
Who won the last meeting between Sam Houston State and Missouri State?
Sam Houston State won the last meeting, beating Missouri State 20-17 in Springfield on September 23, 2006. The all-time series is tied 1-1 entering Tuesday, and this is the first meeting since that 2006 game.