The Atlanta Dream are two wins from their first WNBA championship, and the betting market expects them to take another step on Saturday. Atlanta is a 5-point home favorite over the Golden State Valkyries in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals, with the total sitting at 153. The Dream have won two straight by double digits, while Golden State is fighting a shooting slump and a banged-up star. Still, this series opened with a low-scoring Valkyries win. Our pick leans on what has held true in all three games, even as the momentum has shifted.
Last Updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026
Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream — Time & How to Watch
| Where | State Farm Arena, Atlanta GA |
| When | Saturday, October 24 – 1:00 PM ET |
| TV | NBC (streaming on Peacock) |
Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream Game Preview
Golden State stole the opener on the road, 68-64, behind 26 points from Gabby Williams. Since then, Atlanta has taken control. The Dream won Game 2 by a 79-65 score for the first Finals win in franchise history. They had gone 0-10 across three previous trips to the Finals. Then they returned home and rolled to a 97-71 win in Game 3 to grab a 2-1 series lead.
Angel Reese has been the central figure. She posted 30 points and 16 rebounds in Game 2, becoming only the third player with at least 30 points and 15 boards in a Finals game. She followed with 21 points and 12 rebounds in Game 3, hitting both of her 3-point attempts. Rhyne Howard set a Finals record with six steals in Game 2. Atlanta’s depth also showed up on Wednesday. Howard scored 16, Naz Hillmon added 15, and Isobel Borlase and Jordin Canada also reached double figures.
Golden State’s concern is Williams. She was hurt when Canada collided with her knee on a free-throw box-out late in Game 1. She stayed in that night and hit the go-ahead free throws. However, her production has fallen off sharply. She shot 3-of-15 in Game 2 and 5-of-18 in Game 3. Williams has said she is physically fine. Bench guard Tiffany Hayes gave the Valkyries a lift with 14 points in Game 3, but Golden State shot just 34.8% from the field.
The season profiles point in different directions. Atlanta averaged 91.3 points per game during the season, while Golden State scored 82.2. On the other end, the Valkyries allowed a league-low 75.1 points per game, compared with 84.5 for the Dream.
Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Valkyries | +5.0 (-110) | +175 | U 153.0 (-110) |
| Atlanta Dream | -5.0 (-110) | -210 | O 153.0 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, October 24, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Golden State Valkyries | 25% | 75% | Atlanta Dream |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
WNBA Finals Game 4 Prediction — Golden State Valkyries +5
The spread opened at Atlanta -5 and has not moved, even with 75% of spread bets on the Dream. The moneyline did tick from -200 to -210, so some money is backing Atlanta to win outright. Still, a number that holds firm against a lopsided public split suggests the market isn’t eager to push this past five. That leaves some value on the underdog.
The case for Golden State starts with its defense. This team allowed the fewest points in the league during the season. It also won Game 1 in a grind-it-out game that was decided by four points. Game 4 is close to a must-win for the Valkyries, and they had two days off to regroup. If Williams can get closer to her Game 1 level, five points is a meaningful cushion. Even a modest bounce-back from Golden State’s guards would make this a one-possession game late.
The case against is real, too. Atlanta has won the last two games by 14 and 26 points. Reese has dominated the glass in all three games, and the Valkyries haven’t found an answer. Golden State’s perimeter shooting has also gone cold since the opener. If Williams is still limited and the Valkyries keep settling for tough jumpers, the Dream can pull away again. This is a points play, not a prediction that Golden State wins outright.
The Pick: Golden State Valkyries +5 (-110)
Valkyries vs Dream Game 4 Total Pick — Under 153
The three Finals games have produced combined scores of 132, 144 and 168 points. Game 3 was the only one to clear this number, and that took a 26-point blowout with Atlanta shooting 49.3%. The total opened at 153.5 and has slipped to 153, a small move toward the Under. Golden State’s defensive identity and the physical, rebounding-heavy style of this series both point to a game played in the 140s or low 150s.
On the other side, Atlanta averaged more than 91 points per game this season, and its offense has looked sharper with each game. Atlanta also shot 9-of-22 from three in Game 3. A hot shooting night from either side could carry this Over. Also, if Atlanta builds a big lead, garbage time can add points late. Even so, two of the three games stayed well short of 153, and the Valkyries’ path to winning requires slowing the pace.
The Pick: Under 153 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
Golden State at +175 on the moneyline is tempting for bettors who believe in a split. The implied probability at that price is roughly 36%. However, Atlanta has controlled the last two games, and Williams’ knee is a genuine question mark. We prefer taking the points over chasing the outright win. For more context on how this series has unfolded, see our Valkyries vs. Dream Game 3 prediction and best bets.
The broader read is simple. Atlanta deserves to be favored, but the public is heavily on the Dream and the line hasn’t budged. Golden State has the league’s best defense and a reason to play with urgency. That combination favors a tight, lower-scoring game. Here is a recap of our picks:
- ATS Pick: Golden State Valkyries +5 (-110)
- Total Pick: Under 153 (-110)
WNBA Valkyries vs. Dream Prediction FAQ
What time does the Valkyries vs. Dream game start?
Game 4 of the WNBA Finals tips off at 1 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 24, 2026, at State Farm Arena in Atlanta.
What channel is the Valkyries vs. Dream game on?
Game 4 airs nationally on NBC, with a live stream available on Peacock.
Who is favored in the Valkyries vs. Dream game?
The Atlanta Dream are 5-point home favorites at -210 on the moneyline. The Golden State Valkyries are +5 on the spread and +175 on the moneyline.
Who won the last meeting between the Valkyries and Dream?
Atlanta won Game 3 by a 97-71 score on Wednesday, October 21, to take a 2-1 lead in the WNBA Finals.