Our Colorado State vs Texas State prediction covers a first-ever meeting between two Pac-12 newcomers that both need a conference win on Thursday night. Each school is 2-3 overall and 0-1 in its first season in the league. Texas State is a 14-point favorite with a total of 70, and both numbers have climbed since they opened. Below, we break down the quarterback picture, a midseason coordinator change and the matchup most likely to decide the scoring before landing on two picks.
Last Updated: October 15, 2026
Colorado State vs. Texas State — Game Info
| Where | UFCU Stadium, San Marcos Texas |
| When | October 15 – 8:00 PM ET |
| TV | CBS Sports Network |
Colorado State vs. Texas State Betting Preview
The quarterback news starts on the visiting sideline. Colorado State starter Hauss Hejny has a hamstring injury and is expected to miss a third straight game. ESPN has also reported that he will not start. That puts K’saan Farrar under center again. Farrar threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns in his first start at UTSA, and the offense has kept producing with him. Texas State counters with Brad Jackson, who has thrown for 1,226 yards with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions. Running back Torrance Burgess Jr. adds 614 rushing yards at 7.3 yards per carry.
Recent form favors neither side. Colorado State opened 2-0 with home wins over Wyoming and Southern Utah. Since then, it has lost three straight, allowing 41 points to BYU, 59 to UTSA and 56 to Oregon State. The staff removed defensive coordinator Tyson Summers during the Oregon State loss, so Kenny McClendon calls his first full game here. Texas State, meanwhile, fell 31-29 at San Diego State in its Pac-12 debut. Jackson threw for 372 yards in that game, and Beau Sparks caught 10 passes for 153 yards. Texas State’s only lopsided loss came 59-7 at Texas, while its other two defeats came by five points and two points. Both teams come off a bye. This is also Texas State’s first Pac-12 home game, and UTSA is a common opponent that beat both of them.
The statistical profile explains the big total. Texas State ranks third in FBS in total offense at 531.6 yards per game. It also sits in the top five in rushing and converts 56.2% of its third downs. However, its pass defense allows 300.4 yards per game, last in FBS. Colorado State scores 37.4 points per game but allows 493.2 yards per game, which ranks 137th. Its run defense gives up 228.6 yards per game, 136th nationally.
Colorado State vs. Texas State Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado State | +14.0 (-105) | +430 | O 70.0 (-110) |
| Texas State | -14.0 (-115) | -625 | U 70.0 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of October 15, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Colorado State vs. Texas State — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Colorado State | 55% | 45% | Texas State |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Colorado State vs. Texas State Prediction — Can Kenny McClendon’s First Full Game Steady Colorado State’s Defense?
Start with where each offense attacks. Texas State runs the ball at a top-five clip, and Colorado State ranks 136th against the run. Colorado State throws for 273.2 yards per game, and Texas State owns the worst pass defense in FBS. Neither defense matches up well with what the other side does best. The results back that up. Texas State has allowed at least 31 points in four of its five games. Colorado State games have averaged 76 combined points, and Texas State games have averaged 68. The Over is 5-0 in Colorado State games this season and 4-1 in Texas State games.
The market agrees with that read. The total has climbed two and a half points since it opened, and that move confirms the thesis. However, it also means the best number is gone, and nobody should expect to get the opening price now. A standard -110 price requires a 52.4% win rate to break even. Still, two bottom-tier defenses facing offenses built to exploit them should clear that bar, even after the move.
There is a real case against it. A new play-caller with a bye week to prepare can simplify a defense and tighten its tackling quickly. Texas State’s offense also stalls near the goal line, scoring on only 63.6% of its red-zone trips, which ranks 135th. Long drives that end in field goals or empty possessions would drain clock and points. Colorado State is also on its backup quarterback, though Farrar’s production so far softens that concern.
The Pick: Over 70.0 (-110)
Colorado State vs. Texas State Prediction — Who Carries the Load in Texas State’s Pac-12 Home Debut?
Burgess averages 122.8 rushing yards per game at 7.3 yards per carry, and that figure includes a road trip to Texas. He now faces a defense allowing 228.6 rushing yards per game, and UTSA ran for 239 yards against Colorado State last month. As a 14-point favorite, Texas State should also play with a lead, which tends to mean more handoffs late. The yardage ladder shapes how to play it. The lower rungs ask for close to a two-in-three hit rate, while the higher rungs need little more than a coin flip. Against this defense, the higher rung offers the better value for a back who is already near that number on average.
The risks are clear, though. Jackson is a dual-threat quarterback who takes carries of his own, which caps how many go to Burgess. A lopsided score could also send Burgess to the bench early. This read also leans on the same weak Colorado State run defense as the previous play, so the two are not independent.
The Pick: Torrance Burgess Jr. 125+ Rushing Yards (+100)
Our Final Word on Colorado State vs. Texas State
The spread is harder to read. It opened at Texas State -13 and has moved to -14, even though 55% of spread tickets back Colorado State. That is a mild move against the ticket count, and it pushes the number onto 14, a common margin in football. On the other hand, Colorado State is 3-2 against the spread while Texas State is 2-3, and the visitors can score. That leaves the side too contested to back. The moneyline tells a similar story. Texas State has moved from -525 to -625, which implies about an 86.2% chance to win. Colorado State at +430 needs to win only about 18.9% of the time. However, its defense gives little reason to trust it in a road shootout. Thursday is only its second road game of the season, after the 59-45 loss at UTSA. For more conference handicapping, see our Boise State vs Fresno State prediction from last week.
The Over 70.0 (-110) is our top play because two of the country’s weakest defenses meet offenses built to exploit them. Torrance Burgess Jr. 125+ Rushing Yards (+100) follows, backing a 7.3-yards-per-carry runner against a defense allowing 228.6 rushing yards per game.
NCAAF Colorado State vs. Texas State FAQ: October 15, 2026
What time does the Colorado State vs. Texas State game start?
Colorado State and Texas State kick off at 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026. That is 7:00 PM Central in San Marcos and 6:00 PM Mountain for fans in Colorado. The game is a weeknight Pac-12 matchup, and both teams are coming off a bye week.
What channel is the Colorado State vs. Texas State game on?
The Colorado State vs. Texas State game airs nationally on CBS Sports Network. Kickoff from UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, Texas, is set for 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15. The broadcast covers Texas State’s first Pac-12 home game and the first-ever meeting between the two schools.
Where are Colorado State and Texas State playing?
Colorado State and Texas State play at UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, Texas, home of the Texas State program. It is Texas State’s first Pac-12 home game after opening conference play on the road at San Diego State. It is also Colorado State’s first conference road game of the season.
What conference are Colorado State and Texas State in?
Colorado State and Texas State are both in the Pac-12, and 2026 is the first season in the conference for each school. That makes Thursday’s game a conference matchup. Both teams are 0-1 in league play, after Colorado State lost to Oregon State and Texas State lost to San Diego State.
Who won the last meeting between Colorado State and Texas State?
Colorado State and Texas State have never played each other, so there is no previous meeting. Thursday’s game is the first meeting between the two programs, and it is Colorado State’s first trip to San Marcos. The schools became conference opponents when both joined the Pac-12 this season.
What is Texas State’s record this season?
Texas State is 2-3 this season and 0-1 in the Pac-12. Texas State’s wins came against North Texas, 49-35, and Incarnate Word, 63-10. Their losses came at Texas, 59-7, against UTSA, 31-26, and at San Diego State, 31-29, in their conference opener.