The New York Jets open as 3.5-point road underdogs at Soldier Field on Sunday, and the number has barely twitched despite Chicago losing its starting quarterback. Caleb Williams is out a second straight week with a hamstring injury. Yet the Bears are still favored, still riding the NFL’s best running game, and still fresh off a 27-7 dismantling of Philadelphia. The spread says one thing here. The injury reports on both sidelines say something different, and that gap is where our best bet sits.
Last Updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026
New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Soldier Field, Chicago Illinois |
| When | Sunday, October 4 – 1:00 PM ET |
| TV | FOX |
New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears Betting Preview
Chicago sits at 2-1 in the NFC North, a game behind unbeaten Minnesota, and the Bears have been wildly uneven. They put up 59 points at Carolina in Week 1, managed just three in a 9-3 home loss to the Vikings, then beat the Eagles 27-7 on Monday night. The ground game is the common thread in both wins. Chicago leads the league in rushing at 184.3 yards per game and 5.27 yards per carry, with D’Andre Swift at 253 yards and three scores.
The quarterback picture is the complication. Williams was officially ruled out with a hamstring injury he sustained in Week 2. Case Keenum started against Philadelphia and threw for 247 yards. Tyson Bagent has since cleared concussion protocol, and NFL Network reported Bagent is likely to start, though Ben Johnson has declined to confirm it. Chicago also lost left tackle Braxton Jones to a knee injury, with Theo Benedet expected to slide in.
New York arrives at 1-2, tied with New England in the AFC East and behind 3-0 Buffalo. The Jets beat Tennessee 23-10, lost 20-17 in overtime to Green Bay, and fell 31-24 at Detroit. Geno Smith has been the story. He leads the NFL at 75.5 percent completions with a 110.0 passer rating, 783 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions, and threw for 321 yards at Detroit without two of his top targets.
New York will be shorthanded again. Breece Hall is out with a quad injury, pushing Braelon Allen into the lead role, and receiver Adonai Mitchell, tight end Mason Taylor, guard Dylan Parham and linebacker Kiko Mauigoa are also out. Aaron Glenn’s defense has carried the load anyway, ranking second in fewest yards allowed at 258.3 per game and third against the pass at 171. The one hole: no interception since the 2024 season finale.
New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | +3.5 (-110) | +165 | U 43 (-110) |
| Bears | -3.5 (-110) | -195 | O 43 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of October 4, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Jets | 45% | 55% | Bears |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Jets vs. Bears Prediction — Can a Backup Quarterback Carry a Home Favorite?
Start with what the market did, because it is informative here. This game opened Chicago -3.5 (-115) with New York +3.5 (-105). It now sits -110 on both sides of the same 3.5. The number held through Williams being ruled out, but the juice came off the favorite. That is a soft tell, not a dramatic one. Still, price drifting toward the dog while the key number holds suggests the side with the backup quarterback is absorbing pressure.
The case for Chicago is straightforward, and it is not weak. The Bears rank third in total offense at 408.0 yards per game, and the run game is the matchup edge. New York’s run defense is seventh overall but 18th in yards allowed per attempt, the number that matters against a team averaging 5.27 a carry. Chicago’s defense has also tightened sharply, allowing nine points to Minnesota and seven to Philadelphia with three takeaways Monday night.
The case against is the price attached to that path. Chicago is laying more than three with its third quarterback option, behind a line missing its starting left tackle, against the league’s second-ranked yardage defense. New York has lost twice, but by three in overtime and by seven at Detroit. Smith has not turned the ball over, and a secondary ranked third against the pass should not be stressed by a conservative Chicago passing attack. Public money is only mildly on the Bears at 55 percent of spread tickets. Take the points.
The Pick: Jets +3.5 (-110)
Jets vs. Bears Prediction — Is There Enough Offense Left to Clear the Number?
The total opened at 43 and has not moved, which fits a game with two defenses playing well and two offenses missing pieces. Chicago has held back-to-back opponents under 10 points, and New York is allowing 258.3 yards per game. The personnel points the same direction. The Jets are without their lead back and two pass catchers, and the Bears are starting a backup likely asked to manage the game rather than push it. A run-heavy script also eats clock.
The honest counterargument is Chicago’s volatility. This is a team that scored 59 in Week 1, and the Jets played in a 55-point game at Detroit. If the Bears hit two long runs early and New York has to throw to catch up, 43 is reachable in a hurry. But the Jets have scored 23, 17 and 24 — a tight, low band — and Chicago won Monday on defense, not offense.
The Pick: Under 43 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
There is a moneyline angle worth a smaller stake. New York at +165 implies roughly a 38 percent win probability. For a team whose two losses came by three in overtime and by seven on the road, facing a home favorite down to its third quarterback, that reads light. The risk is plain: if Chicago’s ground game controls the afternoon the way it did at Carolina, the Jets never see the ball enough to win outright. Treat it as a reduced-stake extension of the side, not a replacement.
Bonus Pick: Jets +165 Moneyline
For more on how the Chicago defense got here, see our Eagles vs. Bears prediction for Monday Night Football, plus our latest NFL picks coverage and the official NFL standings page. All three picks together: Jets +3.5 (-110) on the side, Under 43 (-110) on the total, and Jets +165 on the moneyline at reduced stake.
NFL Jets vs. Bears FAQ: Sunday October 4, 2026
What time does the Jets vs. Bears game start?
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, at Soldier Field in Chicago. That is noon local time in the Central zone. The game sits in the early Sunday afternoon slate in Week 4 of the 2026 NFL regular season.
What channel is the Jets vs. Bears game on?
The game airs on FOX. It is a regional broadcast rather than a national window, so availability depends on your market. Tim Brando and Drew Brees are on the call, with Kristina Pink reporting from the sideline.
Is Caleb Williams playing against the Jets?
No. The Bears officially ruled Caleb Williams out with a hamstring injury, the second straight game he will miss. He sustained it in Week 2 against Minnesota. Case Keenum started in his place against Philadelphia, and Tyson Bagent has since cleared concussion protocol.
Who won the last meeting between the Jets and Bears?
New York won the last meeting 31-10 on November 27, 2022, at home in East Rutherford. It remains the Jets’ largest margin of victory in the series. Chicago still leads the all-time head-to-head 9-4 across 13 meetings.
Where do the Jets and Bears stand in their divisions?
The Jets are 1-2 in the AFC East, tied with New England and behind 3-0 Buffalo. The Bears are 2-1 in the NFC North, level with Detroit and a game behind 3-0 Minnesota. Both teams are chasing division leaders that have yet to lose.