This Eagles vs Bears prediction starts with a quarterback few expected to see this season. Chicago hosts unbeaten Philadelphia on Monday Night Football without Caleb Williams. The market lists the Eagles as 3.5-point road favorites with a total of 41.5. Those numbers have already moved a long way this week. Below, we break down why the line sits where it does and what the movement says. Then we get to where our two picks land.
Last Updated: September 28, 2026
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears — Game Info
| Where | Soldier Field, Chicago IL |
| When | September 28 – 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN, ABC |
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears Betting Preview
The quarterback question shapes everything here. Chicago has ruled out Caleb Williams with a hamstring injury suffered late in the Week 2 loss to Minnesota. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport and FOX’s Jay Glazer have both reported that Case Keenum is expected to start. Keenum is 38 and has 66 career starts. However, he has not played in a regular-season game since 2023. Tyson Bagent cleared the concussion protocol late in the week, but he practiced only once. The Bears have not formally named a starter, so the read below is built on Keenum and would shift if Bagent gets the call.
Philadelphia is 2-0, though neither win was comfortable. The Eagles held off Washington 24-22 at home by stopping a late two-point try. They then beat Tennessee 24-20 in Nashville on a Jalen Hurts touchdown drive in the final two minutes. Hurts also threw two interceptions in that game. As a result, the Eagles are 0-2 against the spread while going 2-0 to the Over.
The Eagles are also short-handed. Tight end Dallas Goedert (knee), wide receiver Marquise Brown (ankle) and tackle Fred Johnson (knee) are out. Guard Landon Dickerson is on injured reserve, and edge rusher Jonathan Greenard is questionable with a pectoral injury. On the positive side, Saquon Barkley practiced fully all week after his Week 2 stinger and carries no injury designation.
Chicago sits at 1-1 with two very different results. The Bears beat Carolina 59-37 in Week 1 behind more than 290 rushing yards. Then they lost 9-3 to Minnesota at Soldier Field in steady rain, a game swung by a blocked 23-yard field goal. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai have combined for 316 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Bears won the last meeting between these teams, 24-15 in Philadelphia in November 2025.
The market reaction to the injury has been dramatic. Before Williams got hurt, look-ahead lines had Chicago as a 1.5-point favorite. Philadelphia now lays 3.5, a swing of five points driven largely by the quarterback change. The Eagles’ moneyline price of -210 implies a win probability of about 67.7%. That leaves plenty of room to ask whether the adjustment has gone far enough, or too far.
Eagles vs. Bears Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -3.5 (-115) | -210 | O 41.5 (-110) |
| Bears | +3.5 (-105) | +175 | U 41.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of September 28, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Eagles | 78% | 22% | Bears |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Eagles vs. Bears Prediction — Case Keenum’s First Start Since 2023
The total opened at 43.5 and has dropped two full points since. That move tracks the quarterback news, and it confirms a read we reached on our own. Chicago’s identity this season is the ground game. With a 38-year-old quarterback making his first start since 2023, Ben Johnson has every reason to lean on Swift and Monangai. Running plays keep the clock moving, and that shortens the game for both offenses.
Philadelphia’s side of the ledger points the same way. The Eagles have scored exactly 24 points in both games, and they now play without Goedert. They are also missing Brown and two starting offensive linemen. Chicago’s own passing game was already limited, since Williams completed 15 of 26 passes for 138 yards against Minnesota before leaving. That was the starter, not a veteran stepping in cold. Chicago’s defense, meanwhile, held Minnesota to nine points last week. The last meeting between these teams produced 39 total points, below this number.
The case against is real. Both Eagles games have gone Over, and the Bears scored 59 points just two weeks ago. A rusty quarterback can also throw the kind of interception that hands the opponent a short field. Still, the price is a standard 52.4% break-even, and our read on a low-possession game sits above that. We are not getting the opening number, but the thesis and the market agree.
The Pick: Under 41.5 (-110)
Eagles vs. Bears Prediction — Two Wins by a Combined Six Points
The spread tells a more interesting story. Philadelphia opened at -4.5 and has come down to -3.5, even though 78% of spread tickets are on the Eagles. That is reverse line movement, the strongest market signal available. There is a caveat, though. The moneyline moved the other way, from -195 to -210, so the market is not unanimous. The better number is also gone, since the move from 4.5 took the most value with it.
What remains is the key number of three on Chicago’s side. The Eagles have not won a game by more than four points yet, and the Bears can control tempo with their running backs at home. At a 51.2% break-even price, the home underdog is a fair lean. Be aware that this read rests on the same input as the first one: Chicago shortening the game on the ground. If Keenum struggles early and the Bears fall behind, both picks suffer together.
The case for Philadelphia is straightforward. Hurts has already shown he can finish a game-winning drive, and Barkley practiced fully all week. If the Eagles’ defense forces Keenum into early mistakes, a margin of four or more is well within reach. The moneyline move suggests some bettors see exactly that outcome. We respect it, but at this number the home side carries the better price.
The Pick: Bears +3.5 (-105)
Our Final Word on Eagles vs. Bears
Philadelphia has the better roster and the healthier quarterback, and a comfortable Eagles win would not be a surprise. However, both of their wins have been close, and their offense is missing several key pieces. For a closer look at how the market opened and moved, see our Eagles vs Bears odds breakdown. Keenum’s arm after two seasons away from game action is the biggest unknown on the board. The picks below lean on a slow, physical game in Chicago.
Under 41.5 (-110) is our top play, because a 38-year-old backup and a short-handed Eagles offense point to a low-scoring game. Bears +3.5 (-105) is our second play, because the line has dropped a full point against heavy public support.
NFL Eagles vs. Bears FAQ: September 28, 2026
What time does the Eagles vs. Bears game start?
The Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday, September 28, 2026. The game closes out Week 3 for both clubs, with the Eagles entering at 2-0 and the Bears at 1-1 after splitting their first two games of the season.
What channel is the Eagles vs. Bears game on?
Eagles vs. Bears airs nationally on ESPN and ABC, with kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET. Both networks carry the same broadcast, so fans can watch on either channel through cable, satellite, or any live TV service that includes ESPN or ABC in its lineup.
Where are the Eagles and Bears playing?
The Eagles and Bears play at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois, the Bears’ home stadium. Chicago returns home after a 9-3 loss to the Minnesota Vikings there in Week 2, a game in which starting quarterback Caleb Williams left with a hamstring injury.
Is Caleb Williams playing against the Eagles?
No. Caleb Williams has been ruled out with a hamstring injury suffered in the fourth quarter of Chicago’s Week 2 loss to Minnesota, and coach Ben Johnson has called him week to week. Veteran Case Keenum is reported to be in line to start, with Tyson Bagent also available.
Who won the last meeting between the Eagles and Bears?
The Bears won the last meeting 24-15 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia on November 28, 2025. Monday’s game at Soldier Field is the first time the two teams have met since then. Chicago now faces the Eagles without Caleb Williams, who is out with a hamstring injury.
What are the Eagles’ and Bears’ records this season?
The Eagles are 2-0 and lead the NFC East after close wins over Washington and Tennessee. The Bears are 1-1 after beating the Carolina Panthers 59-37 in Week 1 and losing 9-3 to the Minnesota Vikings at home in Week 2.