South Point 400 odds have Denny Hamlin at +350, the shortest single price on a 36-driver board at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The market has an obvious reason for it. Hamlin has won the last two Cup Series races at the 1.5-mile oval, taking this event in October 2025 and the Pennzoil 400 in March. Kyle Larson sits just behind at +400 after a dominant Kansas weekend. The green flag is set for 5:30 p.m. ET on USA Network. Below is the full board and how the market has priced it.
Last Updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026
2026 South Point 400 — Race Information
| Where | Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas, NV |
| When | Sunday, October 4 – 5:30 PM ET |
| TV | USA Network |
2026 South Point 400 Betting Preview
Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile asphalt oval, and the South Point 400 runs 267 laps for 400.5 miles, with stage breaks at Lap 80 and Lap 165. That format puts a premium on long-run speed and tire management. Drivers who hold pace deep into a fuel run tend to control the closing stages.
This is the fifth of 10 Chase races. The 2026 format seeds 16 drivers once and runs with no elimination rounds, awarding 55 points for a win. With six races left and no cut lines to survive, the top of the board prices as win-or-nothing entries.
Hamlin is the defending winner of this race. He swept the pole and the win in October 2025. He backed it up in March, taking the Pennzoil 400 despite an early pit-road speeding penalty. That two-race run is the load-bearing reason he is priced ahead of Larson, who arrives with the hotter car. Larson led 235 of 267 laps at Kansas, swept both stages, and extended his Chase points lead. He has three prior Cup wins here.
One race-week storyline sits outside the board entirely. Larson will run a tribute paint scheme honoring Kyle Busch, the two-time Cup champion and Las Vegas native who died in May at 41. For last week’s board, see our Hollywood Casino 400 odds breakdown.
2026 South Point 400 — Top Odds to Win
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +350 |
| Kyle Larson | +400 |
| Christopher Bell | +550 |
| Chase Briscoe | +900 |
| William Byron | +1000 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1200 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1200 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1400 |
| Carson Hocevar | +1600 |
| Joey Logano | +1600 |
Odds accurate as of Tuesday, September 29, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NASCAR Odds – Props
South Point 400 Odds: Denny Hamlin Favored at Las Vegas
Hamlin’s +350 carries an implied probability of roughly 22 percent, which is a firm number for a 36-car field. The track record is the case for it. He has three career Cup wins at Las Vegas, including the last two runnings. He clinched the No. 1 Chase seed in August on an 8.1 average finish, a career-best pace in his 21st full-time season. He has three straight Chase top-10s, including third at Kansas.
The case against the price is Larson at +400. Only 50 points of odds separate them. Larson has two wins in the first four Chase races and four straight top-fives. The market is charging a premium for Hamlin’s venue history while a driver with equal current speed sits a tick longer. Hamlin also trails by 26 points and has said wins, not top-fives, close that gap.
Christopher Bell at +550 rounds out the chalk. He finished third here last October and sixth at Kansas. He also snapped a long winless run by taking the Southern 500 to open the Chase. Bell is 50 points back of Larson, which is why the market has him close but not level.
South Point 400 Mid-Pack Odds Contenders
Chase Elliott (+1800) is the clearest case of a driver the board has repriced downward. His two victories are Hendrick Motorsports’ only regular-season wins in 2026. Even so, the organization entered September on a long winless run and was tracking toward its thinnest season since 1993. Elliott’s summer form fell off sharply. The mid-board price reflects that, not the equipment.
Bubba Wallace (+2500) made the Chase as the 14th seed and ranked second in the series in quality passes during the regular season. He was runner-up at New Hampshire in August. The market prices him to run top 10, not to lead the final 20 laps.
Austin Cindric (+3500) qualified for the Chase as the 15th seed after peaking late in the regular season. Ross Chastain (+5000) missed the 16-driver field entirely. That absence is most of the reason he sits at 50-1 despite Trackhouse equipment that has won races this year.
South Point 400 Long Shots Odds on the LVMS Board
Shane van Gisbergen (+17500) is the sharpest split on the board between discipline and surface. He has multiple 2026 road-course wins in the No. 97 Trackhouse Chevrolet, but ovals remain a work in progress. He posted five top-15 finishes in his first 11 oval starts, best of sixth. That is real improvement, still short of a 1.5-mile winning profile.
Erik Jones (+20000) brings Legacy Motor Club’s No. 43 to a track type where the team has not shown front-running speed. Connor Zilisch (+35000) is the only full-time rookie in the 2026 field, in the No. 88 for Trackhouse. His ceiling has mostly shown on road courses, and a 267-lap intermediate is where rookie tire management gets exposed.
2026 South Point 400: What to Watch
The board is shaped like a two-man race with a third name in reach. Hamlin, Larson and Bell hold the three shortest prices, and the step from Bell at +550 to Chase Briscoe at +900 is the widest inside the top five.
Qualifying runs Saturday and is the likeliest source of movement before the green flag. Watch the Hendrick and Penske cars, since intermediate speed has swung between organizations across the Chase. Our Kansas race analysis covers how that played out last week.
NASCAR South Point 400 FAQ: Sunday October 4, 2026
Who is the favorite to win the South Point 400?
Denny Hamlin is the favorite at +350 to win the 2026 South Point 400. He has won the last two Cup Series races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Hamlin enters the weekend second in the Chase standings, 26 points behind leader Kyle Larson, who is next at +400.
What time does the South Point 400 start?
The 2026 South Point 400 is scheduled to take the green flag at 5:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. It is the fifth of 10 races in the NASCAR Cup Series Chase and airs on USA Network.
What channel is the South Point 400 on?
The 2026 South Point 400 will be broadcast on USA Network, with coverage beginning ahead of the 5:30 p.m. ET green flag. Radio coverage is carried by PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. Cup Series practice and qualifying take place Saturday, October 3.
How many laps is the South Point 400?
The South Point 400 runs 267 laps for a total race distance of 400.5 miles around the 1.5-mile Las Vegas Motor Speedway oval. The race is split into three stages, with stage breaks at Lap 80 and Lap 165 and the final stage running 102 laps.
Who won the South Point 400 last year?
Denny Hamlin won the 2025 South Point 400 on October 12, 2025. He started from the pole and finished ahead of Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell. Hamlin followed it with a win in the Pennzoil 400 at the same track in March 2026.
Who has the most NASCAR wins at Las Vegas Motor Speedway?
Jimmie Johnson and Joey Logano share the Cup Series record at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with four wins each. Logano tied Johnson by winning the South Point 400 in October 2024. Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth have three apiece.