The NASCAR Cup Series Chase reaches Kansas Speedway on Sunday, September 27, 2026, for the Hollywood Casino 400. It is the fourth of 10 Chase races and the start of a three-week run on 1.5-mile ovals. Kyle Larson carries a one-point lead over Denny Hamlin. Rain washed out Saturday practice and qualifying, so NASCAR set the field by metric formula and Joey Logano earned the pole without turning a lap. Below are our picks: one best bet, two mid-tier value plays, and two long shots.
Last Updated: Sunday, September 27, 2026
2026 Hollywood Casino 400 — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Kansas Speedway, Kansas City, KS |
| When | Sunday, September 27 – 3:00 PM ET |
| TV | USA Network |
2026 Hollywood Casino 400 Betting Preview
Kansas Speedway is a 1.5-mile tri-oval, and the Hollywood Casino 400 covers 267 laps and 400.5 miles. Stage breaks fall at Lap 80 and Lap 165. Las Vegas and Charlotte follow, and Bubba Wallace called the stretch a good indicator of who wins the title. The 2026 Chase runs 10 races with no elimination rounds, and a win pays 55 points. With practice rained out, NASCAR set the lineup by metric rather than speed. Logano starts on pole with Larson alongside. Christopher Bell and Carson Hocevar form row two, Ty Gibbs and Hamlin share row three, and Ryan Blaney rolls off 25th after contact with Hocevar left him 33rd at Bristol.
The board tracks recent form more closely than Kansas history. Larson is shortest at +350 after winning at Gateway and finishing top five in all three Chase races. Hamlin sits at +400 with four career Kansas wins. Bell is +600 following his Southern 500 win in the Chase opener. Below them sit the prices worth studying. Tyler Reddick won this race in April from the pole and is +800. Logano won at Bristol and starts on pole here, yet he is +1200. The washed-out weekend is the biggest variable left. No team has speed data, so the early running order will move opinion faster than the grid does. Our full Hollywood Casino 400 odds breakdown covers the rest of the board.
2026 Hollywood Casino 400 — Top Odds to Win
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +350 |
| Denny Hamlin | +400 |
| Christopher Bell | +600 |
| Tyler Reddick | +800 |
| Joey Logano | +1200 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1200 |
| Chase Briscoe | +1400 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1400 |
| Chase Elliott | +1600 |
| William Byron | +1800 |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, September 27, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NASCAR Odds – Props
2026 Hollywood Casino 400 Best Bets
Kyle Larson (+350) is our pick to win the Hollywood Casino 400. He is also the shortest price on the board, and that is not the reason for the pick. Larson has finished top five in all three Chase races. He ended a 51-race winless run at Gateway, then followed it with a runner-up finish at Bristol. His Kansas profile matches that form. He owns three wins here and finished second behind Reddick in April.
The grid helps too. Larson starts second, which matters more than usual with no practice. Hamlin is the obvious alternative at +400, and his four Kansas wins are the better raw track record. However, Hamlin finished ninth at Gateway and eighth at Bristol, so for roughly the same price the current speed sits with the No. 5.
The case against is straightforward. Kansas turns on late cautions, and last year’s race was decided on an overtime restart Larson was not part of. A short price in a 36-car field leaves no margin for a pit-road error or a wrong tire call. If the finish goes chaotic, this number stops looking attractive.
Hollywood Casino 400 Predictions Mid-Tier Value Plays
Chase Elliott (+1600) is the defending winner of this race, and the market has him ninth on the board. He won here in overtime in September 2025 and added a Kansas win in 2018. He finished eighth in April. His average finish at Kansas is the best among the Chase contenders, and that profile pays at a track where clean execution beats raw speed.
The 2026 form is why he is priced there. Elliott was one of three drivers knocked out at Gateway by a brake rotor failure, and he has not contended weekly the way Larson and Bell have. He needs the No. 9 to find speed it has lacked on intermediates.
Joey Logano (+270) — Stage 1 Winner is the secondary-market play on this card. Logano starts on pole and Stage 1 runs only 80 laps. Track position carries most of the weight in that window, and he arrives on the back of a Bristol win. The counterpoint is that Larson is the Stage 1 favorite at +185 and starts alongside him. An early caution can also hand the stage to a car that stayed out.
Long Shot Picks for The 2026 Hollywood Casino 400
Ross Chastain (+5000) has already won this exact race. He took the 2024 Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas, and he ran fifth at Gateway three weeks ago. Trackhouse has not been a weekly threat in 2026, which is why the price sits at 50-1. What makes him plausible is how Kansas races finish. Chastain is aggressive on restarts, and this track produces them late.
Alex Bowman (+6600) finished second at Gateway in the same Hendrick equipment Larson drove to Victory Lane. That is the argument in one sentence. Bowman has not been a consistent front-runner this season, and 66-1 honestly reflects his win rate. The counterweight is that Hendrick has been fast lately, and Bowman closed that Gateway race when the car was right. He needs a clean day and a strategy break.
2026 Hollywood Casino 400 Final Thoughts: What to Watch
This race sets the tone for the intermediate stretch that decides the 2026 Chase. Watch the opening 20 laps, because the metric-set grid is untested and the real running order will sort itself out fast. If Logano holds the lead through the first cycle, the Stage 1 play is live. If Larson clears him early, our best bet sits where we want it. Hamlin and Bell are the two most likely to make that pick look wrong. Kansas also has a history of late cautions that reshuffle strategy, and that is where Elliott, Chastain, and Bowman find an opening.
NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 FAQ: Sunday September 27, 2026
Who is the favorite to win the Hollywood Casino 400?
Kyle Larson is the favorite at +350 to win the 2026 Hollywood Casino 400. Denny Hamlin is next at +400, followed by Christopher Bell at +600 and Tyler Reddick at +800. Larson leads the Chase standings by one point over Hamlin and won two weeks ago at Gateway.
What time does the Hollywood Casino 400 start?
The Hollywood Casino 400 starts at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 27, 2026, at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas. It is the fourth of 10 races in the NASCAR Cup Series Chase and the first of three consecutive events on 1.5-mile tracks.
What channel is the Hollywood Casino 400 on?
The Hollywood Casino 400 airs on USA Network, with radio coverage from MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. Green flag is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 27, 2026.
How many laps is the Hollywood Casino 400?
The Hollywood Casino 400 is 267 laps and 400.5 miles around the 1.5-mile Kansas Speedway. The race is split into three stages, with breaks at Lap 80 and Lap 165 and the final stage running to Lap 267.
Who won the Hollywood Casino 400 last year?
Chase Elliott won the 2025 Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway, passing for the lead on the final lap of an overtime finish. It was his second career win at the track after taking the October 2018 race.