Two of the WNBA’s most disappointing teams collide in the desert on Friday night, and the betting market cannot quite decide who deserves the benefit of the doubt. The Phoenix Mercury host the Connecticut Sun as five-point favorites, yet the public money is pouring in on the visitors to keep it close.
Phoenix owns the better record and the bigger names. Connecticut arrives with fresh momentum and a favorable point cushion. Our headline lean sides with the value the market is offering, and the reasoning below explains why.
Last Updated: Friday, July 17, 2026
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| When | Friday, July 17 – 10:00 PM ET |
| TV | ION |
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury Game Preview
Neither team is where it hoped to be in mid-July. The Mercury sit at 8-17 and the Sun trail the entire league at 6-18. Both clubs rank near the bottom of the 2026 WNBA standings, so the loser here falls further from playoff contention. Still, form matters at the margins, and the two teams arrive pointing in opposite directions.
Phoenix limps in on a four-game losing streak. The most recent defeat was a 104-100 loss at Minnesota, a game the Mercury led at times before fading late. Kahleah Copper remains the offensive engine, and Copper’s 20.5 points per game pace the roster. Alyssa Thomas keeps the offense moving with roughly 14 points and eight assists a night. However, the supporting cast has been uneven, and Phoenix has struggled to protect home court all season.
Connecticut, in contrast, just snapped a skid. The Sun edged Portland 90-87 in their last outing, a season-high scoring night for a group that usually grinds. Brittney Griner anchors the interior on both ends, and she leads Connecticut in blocks while chipping in nearly 14 points a game. The complication is availability. Leading scorer and rebounder Aneesah Morrow is listed as day-to-day and has missed recent action, which thins an offense that already ranks among the league’s least efficient. For more on how the Sun have been trending, see our recent Sun matchup breakdown.
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun | +5 (-105) | +180 | U 165 (-110) |
| Mercury | -5 (-115) | -220 | O 165 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Friday, July 17, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Sun | 73% | 27% | Mercury |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Sun vs. Mercury Prediction — Is the Home Favorite Worth the Price?
The number opened at Phoenix -5.5 and has since ticked down to -5. That move matters. It lines up with the betting splits, where 73% of spread tickets sit on the visitors. When a favorite this shaky gets bought down toward a key range, the market is telling you it does not fully trust the home side.
The case for Connecticut is situational. Phoenix has lost four in a row and has been vulnerable at home all year. Five points is a meaningful cushion between two sub-.300 teams, and the Sun just showed they can score in a tight finish. Griner gives them a matchup problem inside that Phoenix cannot easily erase.
The counterargument is real, though. Phoenix still holds the talent edge with Copper and Thomas, and Connecticut has been poor on the road. If Morrow sits, the Sun lose their leading scorer and best rebounder, which shrinks their margin for error. Meanwhile, a proud home team coming off four losses can play with urgency. That is the risk in siding with the underdog. On balance, the points and the price still favor the visitors here.
The Pick: Connecticut Sun +5 (-105)
Sun vs. Mercury Prediction — Will the Scoreboard Stay Quiet?
The total opened at 163.5 and climbed to 165, a signal that some money expects an up-tempo night. There is logic to that. Both defenses have leaked points for weeks, and Phoenix will happily push the pace to try to shoot its way out of a slump. A track meet is not hard to imagine.
The other side is more convincing. Connecticut plays at a deliberate speed and owns one of the league’s weakest perimeter offenses. Without Morrow, the Sun lose second-chance scoring and become even more reliant on grinding half-court possessions. A game that features a slumping favorite and a low-scoring underdog often stays under an inflated number. The buy-up to 165 looks like an overcorrection.
The Pick: Under 165 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
There is one more angle worth a look. At +180, the Sun moneyline implies only about a 36% chance of an outright win. Yet Connecticut is facing a home team that has dropped four straight and has not held serve at home. When you already like the underdog on the spread, the moneyline offers a cheap ticket on the upset for a fraction of a unit. The obvious caveat is that Phoenix is priced at -220 for a reason, so treat this as a speculative sprinkle rather than a core play. For context on how the Mercury have been valued lately, our Mercury vs. Lynx breakdown from earlier this week flagged similar concerns about laying points with this group.
To recap the card: we side with Connecticut Sun +5 (-105) on the spread, lean Under 165 (-110) on the total, and add a small speculative stake on the Connecticut Sun moneyline (+180). Each position leans on the same theme — a slumping favorite that the market itself is quietly fading.
WNBA Sun vs. Mercury Friday July 17, 2026 FAQ
What time does the Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury game start?
Tip-off is set for 10:00 PM ET on Friday, July 17, 2026, at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix.
What channel is the Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury game on?
The game is scheduled to air nationally on ION.
Who is favored in the Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury game?
Phoenix is a five-point home favorite, with the Mercury priced at -220 on the moneyline and the Sun at +180. The total sits at 165.
Is Aneesah Morrow playing for the Connecticut Sun?
Morrow, Connecticut’s leading scorer and rebounder, is listed as day-to-day and has missed recent games. Her status should be confirmed on the official injury report before tip-off.