Shane van Gisbergen headlines the 2026 Toyota / Save Mart 350 field as the clear betting favorite when the NASCAR Cup Series returns to Sonoma Raceway on Sunday, June 28, 2026. The road-course specialist opens the week at -250 according to oddsmakers.
That short price reflects his defending-champion status at Sonoma and his seventh career Cup win, all earned on road or street courses. Below is a full breakdown of the latest 2026 Toyota / Save Mart 350 odds, the favorite at the top of the board, mid-tier value plays, and longshots worth tracking on race day.
Last Updated: Thursday, June 25, 2026
2026 Toyota / Save Mart 350 — Date, Time & How to Watch
| Where | Sonoma Raceway, Sonoma, CA |
| When | Sunday, June 28 – 3:30 PM ET |
| TV | TNT |
Van Gisbergen Leads 2026 Toyota / Save Mart 350 Odds
The case for the favorite is straightforward. Van Gisbergen won this race in 2025, and he led a race-record 97 laps doing it. He followed that with another road-course statement in May, running down the field to win the Go Bowling at The Glen by more than seven seconds. On a 1.99-mile, 12-turn road course, no driver in the Cup garage carries a stronger résumé. Sonoma rewards car control and tire management, and those are the traits that define his style.
The case against him is the price. A -250 number carries an implied probability near 71 percent, and that leaves almost no margin for the chaos a road course can produce. Van Gisbergen also arrives off a rough weekend. He sat on the pole for the Anduril 250 at the San Diego street course, then got caught in a Stage 1 wreck and finished 38th. That same race was won by first-time Cup winner Corey Heim, a reminder that road courses can scramble the expected order. His 2026 season outside of road tracks has been quiet as well.
Still, the lean here is van Gisbergen as the single most likely winner. The board has him on top for good reason, and the price looks justified by his Sonoma mastery rather than inflated by name value. However, justified is not the same as comfortable. The number would look wrong if he gets collected in an early-lap incident, if a green-flag pit cycle turns against him, or if a fellow road ace like Connor Zilisch or Kyle Larson simply has the faster car. At -250, the margin for any of those outcomes is thin.
2026 Toyota / Save Mart 350 — Top Odds to Win
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Shane van Gisbergen | -250 |
| Connor Zilisch | +750 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1200 |
| Kyle Larson | +1400 |
| Michael McDowell | +1800 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1800 |
| Ryan Blaney | +2500 |
| Chris Buescher | +2800 |
| AJ Allmendinger | +3300 |
| Chase Briscoe | +3300 |
Odds accurate as of Thursday, June 25, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NASCAR Odds - Props
Mid-Tier Value Plays at Sonoma
The middle of the board is where Sonoma bettors often find the cleanest value. These are proven names priced well off the favorites, and each comes with a clear two-sided read.
Chase Elliott (+3500) remains one of the most accomplished road racers in the field. He has long been a threat to win whenever the Cup Series turns right, and his 2026 has been steady near the front of the standings. The counter is simple. Elliott has not closed out a road-course win in some time, and steady has not translated into victory lane often this season.
William Byron (+3500) brings championship-level consistency and elite Hendrick equipment. He has run near the top of the points table all year, so the floor is high. The concern is fit. Road courses are not Byron's strongest discipline, and Sonoma's track position battle can blunt even the best intermediate-track cars.
Ross Chastain (+4000) drives the same Trackhouse banner that fields van Gisbergen and Zilisch, and he is aggressive enough to make moves on a tight road course. He has shown front-running Sonoma pace before. The downside is volatility. Chastain's assertive style can produce a win or an early tangle, and Sonoma's narrow corners punish mistakes.
Longshots and Race-Day Storylines
At the long end of the board, two big names stand out for very different reasons. Denny Hamlin (+10000) is one of the sport's premier drivers, yet road courses remain the soft spot on his résumé, which explains the triple-digit price. He is a defensible sprinkle for bettors who believe his veteran craft can finally translate at Sonoma, but the track history says fade. Joey Logano (+10000) has won on road courses before and brings Team Penske resources. The case against him is recent road-course form that has not matched his short-track and superspeedway success.
Sonoma also opens the 2026 NASCAR In-Season Challenge, a five-race, 32-driver bracket worth $1 million. Tyler Reddick enters as the No. 1 seed and meets Alex Bowman in the opening round, while No. 2 seed Denny Hamlin draws Ty Dillon. The knockout format adds a second layer of intrigue, since a strong run can carry both betting and bracket value into the following weeks.
The other storyline sits second on the board. Rookie Connor Zilisch (+750) has struggled through much of his first Cup season, ranking deep in the standings with a string of early exits. Road courses, however, are his specialty, and his Trackhouse Chevrolet gives him real equipment. Qualifying is set for Saturday, so grid position and pole speed will not be known until the weekend unfolds.
2026 Toyota / Save Mart 350 Betting FAQ
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 Toyota / Save Mart 350?
Shane van Gisbergen is the favorite at -250. The defending Sonoma winner is the most accomplished road racer in the Cup field and won the Go Bowling at The Glen earlier in 2026.
Who do you like to win the Toyota / Save Mart 350?
Shane van Gisbergen is the most likely winner given his Sonoma mastery, but the -250 price offers little margin. An early incident or a charge from Connor Zilisch or Kyle Larson would be the most likely way the call goes wrong.
When is the 2026 Toyota / Save Mart 350?
The race is scheduled for Sunday, June 28, 2026, with the green flag set for 3:30 PM ET at Sonoma Raceway in Sonoma, California. The event runs 110 laps on the 1.99-mile road course.
What channel is the Toyota / Save Mart 350 on?
The 2026 Toyota / Save Mart 350 will be broadcast on TNT. Radio coverage comes from PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
Who won the Toyota / Save Mart 350 last year?
Shane van Gisbergen won the 2025 Toyota / Save Mart 350 at Sonoma. He led 97 laps, the most ever by a Sonoma Cup winner.
Who has the most NASCAR Cup wins at Sonoma?
Hall of Famer Jeff Gordon holds the Sonoma record with five Cup wins. Among active drivers, Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson lead with two victories each.