WNBA Predictions: Will Sky pull off small upset vs. Mercury?

The Chicago Sky have quietly become one of the early surprises of the WNBA season, and this Sky vs Mercury prediction backs Chicago to continue its strong start Friday night in Phoenix.

Chicago enters the matchup unbeaten through two games after an impressive defensive performance against Golden State, while Phoenix continues searching for chemistry following back-to-back losses. The Mercury still possess star power with Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas, and DeWanna Bonner, but the team’s offensive inconsistency and defensive lapses remain concerning early in the year.

Meanwhile, Chicago already appears comfortable in Tyler Marsh’s defensive system and is playing with confidence on both ends of the floor.

That makes the underdog appealing getting points.

Betting Odds & Public Betting

Phoenix enters as a 2.5-point home favorite with the total set at 167.

The Mercury opened the season with a dominant win over Las Vegas but have since dropped consecutive games while struggling offensively late in contests. Phoenix scored just 84 points in Tuesday’s loss to Minnesota and shot only 31.6 percent during the fourth quarter.

Chicago, meanwhile, continues trending upward defensively. The Sky forced Golden State into under 30 percent shooting Wednesday and controlled much of the game through physical defense and disciplined half-court execution.

That defensive identity travels well.

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Key Notes & Storylines

Rickea Jackson has immediately become one of Chicago’s most important offensive weapons after arriving from Los Angeles in the offseason. She enters Friday averaging 18.5 points per game and continues showing the ability to take over stretches offensively.

Skylar Diggins has also provided veteran leadership and scoring consistency, averaging 18 points through the opening two contests.

Most importantly, Chicago already looks connected defensively under Tyler Marsh.

The Sky held Golden State to just 63 points Wednesday and consistently disrupted rhythm offensively throughout the game. Marsh openly praised the team’s defensive intensity afterward, emphasizing that level of effort gives Chicago a chance against anyone.

Phoenix still has tremendous offensive upside, especially with Kahleah Copper capable of exploding for big scoring nights like her 30-point performance Tuesday.

Alyssa Thomas remains one of the league’s best all-around players, and DeWanna Bonner continues providing veteran production. However, the Mercury clearly remain in an adjustment phase with several players returning from overseas commitments and limited practice time together.

Copper acknowledged after Tuesday’s loss that the team is still learning the offense and building chemistry.

That matters against a disciplined defensive team already playing cohesively.

Chicago also enters with momentum and confidence from its 2-0 start, while Phoenix suddenly faces pressure after consecutive losses.

Betting Trends

Chicago has opened the season 2-0 both straight up and against the spread while showing major defensive improvement.

Phoenix has now lost consecutive games after its dominant opener and continues struggling with offensive rhythm late in games.

Underdogs playing strong defense early in the WNBA season often provide value while teams continue building chemistry.

Sky vs. Mercury Prediction

Phoenix certainly has enough talent to win at home, but Chicago currently looks like the more connected and disciplined basketball team.

The Sky are defending at a high level, rebounding well, and getting balanced offensive production from multiple players. Phoenix’s offensive inconsistency and ongoing chemistry issues create a favorable opportunity for Chicago to stay inside the number — and potentially win outright.

Expect another physical, competitive game where defense becomes the difference late.

Prediction: Sky 81, Mercury 78

Best Bet: Sky +2.5