The Washington Mystics close their home push toward the playoffs Tuesday night against a Connecticut Sun team that has dropped five straight. Washington is a 16-point favorite, and that number has climbed since it opened. The question for bettors is simple. Is a double-digit spread this large still a fair price for a playoff team hunting seeding against a 10-32 opponent? We break down the spread, the total, and where the value sits below.
Last Updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026
Connecticut Sun vs. Washington Mystics — Time & How to Watch
| Where | CareFirst Arena, Washington, DC |
| When | Tuesday, September 22 – 7:30 PM ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Boston |
Connecticut Sun vs. Washington Mystics Betting Preview
Washington enters at 26-16 and sits seventh in a crowded playoff bracket. The Mystics are tied in the loss column with the Liberty and Wings, and only a game behind Indiana. According to the latest WNBA standings tracker, Washington can still climb as high as the No. 4 seed with help. That gives the Mystics real motivation to take care of business in their final two games.
The Mystics are also playing their best basketball of the stretch run. They blew out the Chicago Sky 110-80 last Thursday. Then they went to Indiana on Sunday and beat the Fever 93-77 after leading 51-30 at halftime. Kiki Iriafen posted 21 points and 14 rebounds in that win, while Shakira Austin added 20 points and 10 rebounds, per the final box score. Sonia Citron chipped in 16 points and nine assists. Our Mystics vs. Fever prediction from September 20 previewed that game.
Connecticut, meanwhile, is 10-32 and has won just two of its last 10 games. The skid includes a 103-59 loss at Atlanta last Thursday. The Sun were more competitive Sunday, rallying before falling 101-89 to the league-leading Lynx. Diamond Miller, Leila Lacan, and Gianna Kneepkens each scored 15 in that loss, according to the team’s game preview. Our Lynx vs. Sun prediction from September 20 covered that matchup.
Injuries remain a major factor for Connecticut. Brittney Griner has missed 10 straight games with a left knee injury. Olivia Nelson-Ododa (knee) and Kennedy Burke (shoulder, season-ending) were also ruled out Sunday. Washington beat Connecticut 88-81 on June 17 and 92-84 on July 28.
Connecticut Sun vs. Washington Mystics Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun | +16 (-110) | +750 | U 159 (-110) |
| Mystics | -16 (-110) | -1400 | O 159 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Tuesday, September 22, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Connecticut Sun vs. Washington Mystics — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Sun | 45% | 55% | Mystics |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Sun vs. Mystics Prediction — Is the Spread Too Big to Trust?
This line has moved in one direction. Washington opened at -14.5 and now sits at -16. The moneyline has also stretched from -1300 to -1400, which implies roughly a 93% win probability. Interestingly, the spread tickets are fairly balanced, with 55% on Washington and 45% on Connecticut. The moneyline money is far more lopsided, at 93% on the Mystics. A move of a point and a half without a heavy public lean points toward sharper support for the favorite.
The case for Washington is built on form and incentive. The Mystics won their last two games by 30 and 16 points. They also have seeding on the line, so there is little reason to ease off early. Connecticut has lost five straight, and its last road game was a 44-point loss in Atlanta.
Still, there is a real case against laying this many points. Neither of the June or July meetings was decided by more than eight. The Sun also showed fight Sunday, scoring 89 points against Minnesota. In addition, a big fourth-quarter lead could prompt Washington to rest its starters with the postseason days away. That creates backdoor risk. On balance, however, the Mystics’ motivation and recent margins make the favorite the better side.
The Pick: Mystics -16 (-110)
Sun vs. Mystics Prediction — Can Washington’s Offense Carry the Scoring?
The total opened at 158 and has ticked up to 159. Washington’s offense has been the driver lately, with 110 and 93 points in its last two outings. The June and July meetings with Connecticut also landed above this number, at 169 and 176 combined points.
On the other hand, Connecticut’s offense is the obvious weak link. The Sun managed only 59 points in Atlanta last week. If they stall again, Washington may need to carry most of the load itself. That said, the Mystics’ recent scoring and the head-to-head history lean toward points.
The Pick: Over 159 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
There is no moneyline value here. At -1400, the Mystics price leaves almost nothing to gain, and a +750 ticket on Connecticut asks a five-game losing streak to flip against a motivated playoff team. As a result, we are passing on a bonus play and keeping the focus on the spread and total.
The bigger picture favors Washington. The Mystics have won two in a row, hold seeding stakes, and face a short-handed opponent. The risk is a late-game letdown.
Our picks for Sun vs. Mystics:
- Mystics -16 (-110)
- Over 159 (-110)
WNBA Sun vs. Mystics FAQ: Tuesday September 22, 2026
What time does the Sun vs. Mystics game start?
The Connecticut Sun and Washington Mystics tip off at 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. The game is the Sun’s final road contest of the regular season, and one of Washington’s last two regular-season games before the WNBA playoffs begin.
What channel is the Sun vs. Mystics game on?
The Sun vs. Mystics game airs on NBC Sports Boston, the Connecticut Sun’s regional broadcast home. Tip-off is set for 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Fans outside the NBC Sports Boston market should check local listings for regional availability in their area.
Where are the Sun and Mystics playing today?
The Sun and Mystics play at CareFirst Arena in Washington, DC. It is the Mystics’ home arena, and Tuesday’s matchup is the last scheduled meeting between the two teams this regular season. Tip-off is set for 7:30 PM ET.
Who won the last meeting between the Sun and Mystics?
The Washington Mystics won the last meeting, beating the Connecticut Sun 92-84 on July 28, 2026, at CareFirst Arena in Washington. Washington also beat Connecticut 88-81 on the road on June 17.
Where do the Sun and Mystics stand in the WNBA standings?
The Washington Mystics are 26-16 and hold the No. 7 seed in the WNBA playoff picture after clinching a postseason berth. The Connecticut Sun are 10-32 and enter Tuesday on a five-game losing streak. Washington can still move up the bracket with wins in its final two games.