The Connecticut Sun visit the Phoenix Mercury on Sunday night, and this rematch arrives with a twist. Phoenix opened as the home favorite even though Connecticut walked into Mortgage Matchup Center two nights earlier and won by 13. The number currently sits at Mercury -4, and the market has already shifted it since the line first posted. Both teams are stuck near the bottom of the WNBA standings, so pride and momentum are the stakes here rather than a playoff push. Our full breakdown lands on a side, a total, and a bonus angle below. The line movement, however, is the first clue worth unpacking.
Last Updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| When | Sunday, July 19 – 7:00 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN and Disney+ |
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury Game Preview
Phoenix enters at 8-18 and riding a five-game losing streak. The latest defeat came at home against this same Connecticut team, a 96-83 loss on July 17. Connecticut arrives at 7-18, but the Sun are trending the other direction with two straight wins. Neither club is in the playoff race. Both sit near the bottom of the league table, and each is now playing for rhythm and internal evaluation more than seeding.
The Mercury still hold the edge in top-end talent. Kahleah Copper led Phoenix in scoring on Friday, and Alyssa Thomas filled the box score with points, rebounds, and assists. Thomas carries an extra layer of motivation, too. She spent years in Connecticut before arriving in Phoenix through a four-team trade, so every meeting with the Sun is a matchup against her former team. The concern for Phoenix is depth. Leading rebounder Natasha Mack has been sidelined by a foot injury, and the bench has struggled to hold leads during the skid.
Connecticut, meanwhile, got a breakout night from Leila Lacan, who poured in a career-high 26 points in the win. Brittney Griner added 12 points inside, and the Sun bench outproduced its Phoenix counterpart. The Sun did lean on some volatile sources, though. Saniya Rivers has been nursing an ankle issue, and Aneesah Morrow has been unavailable while reconditioning. For a thin roster, single-player availability swings the margins in a hurry. That reality cuts both ways in this series.
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun | +4 (-110) | +145 | U 167 (-110) |
| Mercury | -4 (-110) | -170 | O 167 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, July 19, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Sun | 74% | 26% | Mercury |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Sun vs. Mercury Prediction — Can the Hotter Team Cover Again?
The betting splits tell a split story. Roughly 74 percent of spread tickets sit on the visitors and the extra points, yet about 75 percent of moneyline tickets back Phoenix to win outright. That tension is worth watching. On the moneyline, the price on the home side has actually shortened toward the visitors since the line opened, which points to informed money leaning away from the popular pick. When the number drifts against the heavier ticket count, it usually reflects sharper action.
The case for the visitors is straightforward. They just won this exact matchup on this exact floor, they have won two in a row, and they are the healthier, deeper group at the moment. Four points is a comfortable cushion for a team that led for stretches on Friday. The case against is real as well. Phoenix is desperate to end a five-game slide, holds the edge in star power, and gets a home crowd for a bounce-back spot. Lacan’s 26-point outburst was a career high and may not repeat, which would tighten Connecticut’s margin. Still, the market signals and recent form both point the same way, and the points add insurance.
The Pick: Connecticut Sun +4 (-110)
Sun vs. Mercury Prediction — Will the Rematch Cool Off?
The total opened at 163.5 and has been bet up to 167, so the market has already priced in scoring. The first meeting sailed over that number, with the two sides combining for 179 points on Friday. That result leans on the over side, and neither defense has been stingy this season. The counterpoint is the price you pay now. Taking the over at an inflated 167 means buying at the top after a three-and-a-half point climb.
The under gets the better of that movement. Lacan’s efficient career night is unlikely to repeat, and Phoenix is without leading rebounder Natasha Mack, which limits second-chance and putback scoring. Rematches on short turnaround also tend to feature more familiarity and fewer clean looks. The over is not unreasonable given the pace both teams play, but the value has shifted to the side that banks the extra points.
The Pick: Under 167 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
For bettors who want more upside than the spread offers, the visitors’ moneyline stands out. Connecticut is priced at +145 to win outright, and the Sun already proved they can do exactly that in this building two nights ago. The moneyline carries more risk than the spread, since a narrow Phoenix win still cashes the favorite. The reward, however, matches the profile of a hotter team catching a reeling opponent. It is a defensible add for a smaller stake alongside the spread play. For more of today’s WNBA slate, see today’s WNBA predictions, and revisit our earlier look at this Sun–Mercury series.
To recap the card for Sunday night in Phoenix: the lean is Connecticut Sun +4 (-110) on the spread, Under 167 (-110) on the total, and a smaller-stake sprinkle on the Connecticut Sun moneyline at +145. Each pick allows for the other side to win, so treat them as independent looks rather than a package.
WNBA Connecticut Sun Prediction FAQ
What time does the Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury game start?
Tip-off is set for 7:00 PM ET on Sunday, July 19, 2026, at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona.
What channel is the Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury game on?
The game is scheduled to broadcast on ESPN, with streaming available on Disney+.
Who is favored in the Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury game?
The Phoenix Mercury are four-point home favorites. The Connecticut Sun are +145 on the moneyline, while Phoenix sits at -170.
Who won the last meeting between Connecticut and Phoenix?
The Connecticut Sun beat the Phoenix Mercury 96-83 on July 17, 2026, behind a career-high 26 points from Leila Lacan.