The Phoenix Mercury visit the Dallas Wings on Saturday afternoon in Arlington, and the market has priced this one as a comfortable home win. Dallas opened at -8.5 and now sits at -10, while the total has been trimmed from 172.5 down to 171. Both teams won on Thursday night. Only one of them, however, still has a postseason to prepare for. Below is the breakdown of the line, the public split, and our best bets.
Last Updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings — Time & How to Watch
| Where | College Park Center, Arlington TX |
| When | Saturday, September 19 – 1:00 PM ET |
| TV | CBS |
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Betting Preview
Dallas arrives at 25-16 on a five-game winning streak, and the most recent win was the most convincing. The Wings pulled away from Los Angeles after a 44-44 halftime tie and won 97-77 on Thursday. Jessica Shepard posted her fifth triple-double of the season with 13 points, 11 rebounds and 12 assists. Paige Bueckers added 19 points and led the team in scoring for the 23rd time this year.
There is atmosphere attached as well. The club has billed Saturday as its final regular season home game at College Park Center, with a “Thank You Fans and Arlington” theme night. Dallas has also already clinched a playoff berth, so the Wings will not be resting on the schedule the way a fringe team might. The one clear absence is rookie guard Azzi Fudd, who is out for the season following a knee procedure.
Phoenix comes in at 15-26 and has been eliminated from playoff contention. The Mercury are not arriving flat, though. They won 94-91 at Portland on Thursday in their return from the FIBA break. The larger problem is personnel. Kelsey Plum, acquired in an August trade, is out for the remainder of the season with a lower-leg injury after just five games in Phoenix. That removes the Mercury’s most reliable half-court scoring option for a road matinee.
The teams met once already this year. Dallas won that June 11 meeting in Arlington 85-70, with Bueckers scoring a then-season-high 31. That 15-point margin sits right on top of the current number, which is worth keeping in mind in both directions.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury | +10 (-115) | +335 | U 171 (-110) |
| Wings | -10 (-105) | -450 | O 171 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, September 19, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Mercury | 23% | 77% | Wings |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Mercury vs. Wings Prediction — Can Phoenix Hang Around on the Road?
Start with the movement. This game opened with Dallas laying 8.5 and has been pushed to 10, while the moneyline has stretched from -400 out to -450. That is a meaningful shift in a short window, and the public split explains much of it. Roughly 77 percent of spread tickets sit on Dallas, and 95 percent of moneyline tickets back the home side. When a number moves with that much public money, it is tracking the crowd rather than fading it. That alone does not settle the question. It does mean the number is being bought at full retail.
The case for Dallas is real. The Wings are playing their best basketball of the year, Shepard is controlling possessions, and they beat this same Mercury team by 15 in June. A team closing out its home schedule is unlikely to coast through the first half.
The case against is the price. Double digits is a large ask in a league with limited possessions and little garbage time. Phoenix won on the road 48 hours ago, which suggests the veterans are still logging real minutes. An eliminated team competing like that has enough talent to stay within two possessions late. Double-digit numbers in this league tend to stay honest deep into the fourth quarter.
The Pick: Mercury +10 (-115)
Mercury vs. Wings Prediction — How Much Scoring Will This Matinee Produce?
The total tells a different story than the spread. It opened at 172.5 and has come down to 171 while the side moved toward the favorite. When a spread lengthens and the total shrinks at the same time, the market is usually forecasting a game decided by efficiency rather than volume. Our own read on the Sept. 17 slate lines up with that, as covered in our September 17 Mercury prediction.
The over has a clear argument. Both teams cleared 91 points on Thursday night, and Dallas put up 97. The counter is the head-to-head evidence. The June meeting finished 85-70, a combined 155, which is 16 points under the posted number. Add a 1:00 PM ET start, where shooting rhythm arrives slowly, and the head-to-head evidence carries more weight than one high-scoring Thursday.
The Pick: Under 171 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
One leveraged version of the same opinion is worth a mention. Phoenix is priced at +335, an implied win probability of roughly 23 percent, while Dallas at -450 implies about 82 percent. If the Mercury are live to hang around, that outright price pays more than three times the stake for something they already did on the road this week. This is a small-stake position, not a core play. The honest counter is that Dallas has won five straight and controlled the June meeting throughout. For more of this week’s card, see our latest WNBA picks coverage.
Bonus Pick: Mercury Moneyline (+335), small stake
All picks for this game: Mercury +10 (-115), Under 171 (-110), and a small-stake Mercury moneyline at +335.
WNBA Mercury vs. Wings FAQ: Saturday September 19, 2026
What time does the Mercury vs. Wings game start?
Tip-off is set for 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, September 19, 2026, which is 12:00 PM local time in Texas. It is an afternoon start rather than the usual evening window, so late lineup news lands earlier than normal.
What channel is the Mercury vs. Wings game on?
The game airs nationally on CBS. The broadcast team is Jordan Kent on play-by-play, Isis Young as analyst and Hailey Sutton on the sideline. National network placement is notable for a Saturday matinee of this kind.
Where are the Mercury and Wings playing today?
The game is at College Park Center in Arlington, Texas. Dallas has designated it as the club’s final regular season home game at that venue, and the team is marking the occasion with a “Thank You Fans and Arlington” theme night.
Who won the last meeting between the Mercury and Wings?
Dallas won the last meeting 85-70 on June 11, 2026, in Arlington. Paige Bueckers led all scorers with a then-season-high 31 points in that game. It is the only completed meeting between the two clubs so far this season.
What are the Mercury and Wings records this season?
Dallas enters at 25-16 and has clinched a playoff berth. Phoenix enters at 15-26 and has been eliminated from postseason contention. Both teams won on Thursday, September 17, with the Wings beating Los Angeles 97-77 and the Mercury winning 94-91 at Portland.