The New York Liberty visit the Minnesota Lynx on Friday night at Target Center, and the market has drifted toward the home side. Minnesota opened at -6.5 and now sits at -7.5. This is the first game back for both rosters since late August, when the WNBA paused for the FIBA World Cup. The Lynx are closing in on the No. 1 seed. The Liberty are still sorting out their playoff position. Here is the breakdown, plus our picks.
Last Updated: Friday, September 18, 2026
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Target Center, Minneapolis MN |
| When | Friday, September 18 – 7:30 PM ET |
| TV | ION |
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx Betting Preview
Minnesota owns the league’s best record at 31-9 and sits first in the WNBA standings. New York is sixth at 24-16, level with Washington and Dallas. The Lynx need any two results from their own wins and Golden State losses to lock up the top seed. The Liberty trail the fourth-seed group by two games with four to play, so home court remains alive but unlikely.
Minnesota’s last game was an 89-81 home loss to Atlanta on August 30, covered in our August 30 Lynx preview. New York closed with an 85-66 win over Chicago on August 29, previewed in our August 29 Liberty preview. The Liberty went 11-4 across their final 15 games before the pause.
Breanna Stewart leads New York at 20.4 points per game. Rookie guard Olivia Miles, the No. 2 pick in April’s draft, has been a difference maker for Minnesota at 19.7 points per game. Napheesa Collier is the bigger variable. She missed the start of the season after offseason ankle surgery, then returned in midseason with a 24-point, 10-rebound debut on a minutes restriction. She spent the break with Team USA.
The season series is even. New York won 99-86 in Brooklyn on July 3, and Minnesota answered with a 90-85 win at Target Center on July 11. Line movement has been one-directional. The spread has gone from -6.5 to -7.5, the Minnesota moneyline has shortened from -250 to -300, and the total has ticked down from 178.5 to 177.
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | +7.5 (-110) | +250 | U 177 (-110) |
| Lynx | -7.5 (-110) | -300 | O 177 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Friday, September 18, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Liberty | 43% | 57% | Lynx |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction — Can New York Stay Within Range in Minneapolis?
The split above is the most interesting read on this board. Only 57 percent of spread tickets back Minnesota, yet 94 percent of moneyline tickets are on the Lynx. Bettors are near unanimous on Minnesota winning, and much less comfortable laying the number. That gap often points to a favorite priced ahead of the matchup.
The two meetings this season support that read. New York won by 13 in Brooklyn, and Minnesota won by five here in July. Neither result matched the margin the market now asks for. The Liberty also have live motivation, with Washington and Dallas level on record.
The case for Minnesota is straightforward. They own the league’s best record, they are home, and the top seed is within reach. Still, Collier is working through an ankle that needed surgery in the spring, and the postseason opens on September 27. Cheryl Reeve has every reason to manage rotations rather than chase a blowout. Three weeks off tends to flatten execution, and sloppy games rarely end in comfortable margins.
The Pick: New York Liberty +7.5 (-110)
Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction — Will Three Weeks Off Show Up on the Scoreboard?
Both offenses can score, and the July 3 meeting produced 185 combined points. That is a fair argument for the higher side. Minnesota shoots it well from distance, and New York has the shot creation to keep pace. If legs are fresh rather than rusty, this number is reachable.
The counterweight is the layoff. Neither team has played a competitive game in nearly three weeks, and several rotation players were overseas rather than in team practices. Shooting rhythm is usually the first thing to go. The July rematch at Target Center produced 175 combined points. The market has already shaded this number down, so part of the edge is priced in. The rest still looks available.
The Pick: Under 177 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The 94-6 moneyline split is worth one more look. Minnesota at -300 carries an implied probability of roughly 75 percent. New York at +250 implies about 29 percent. The Liberty already beat this team by 13 points in July. That is a wider gap than a one-in-three shot suggests.
The case against is obvious. Minnesota is 31-9, playing at home, and chasing a seed. Road underdogs against the best team in the league lose far more often than they win. This is a small-stake angle rather than a core position.
Bonus Pick: New York Liberty moneyline +250
WNBA Liberty vs. Lynx FAQ: Friday September 18, 2026
What time does the Liberty vs. Lynx game start?
Tip-off is 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday, September 18, 2026, which is 6:30 p.m. local time in Minneapolis. It is the first game back for both teams after the league paused in late August for the FIBA World Cup, so both rosters have been apart for nearly three weeks.
What channel is the Liberty vs. Lynx game on?
The game is televised nationally on ION, with coverage beginning at tip-off, 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday, September 18. It is the first of four remaining regular season games for each team, and it settles the 2026 season series between the two clubs.
Where are the Liberty and Lynx playing today?
The game is at Target Center in downtown Minneapolis, Minnesota, the Lynx’s home arena, with New York as the visiting team. Two of the three regular season meetings between these clubs are in Minneapolis, and Minnesota won the first of them 90-85 on July 11.
What is the season series record between the Liberty and Lynx?
The season series is tied 1-1 heading into Friday. New York won the first meeting 99-86 at Barclays Center on July 3, behind a season-high 36 points from Breanna Stewart. Minnesota took the rematch 90-85 at Target Center on July 11. Friday is the rubber game.
Where do the Liberty and Lynx stand in the WNBA standings?
Minnesota is first in the league at 31-9, and New York is sixth at 24-16, tied with Washington and Dallas. Both have already clinched playoff berths. Eight teams qualify, and the postseason opens on Sunday, September 27 with best-of-three first-round series.