The Minnesota Lynx can lock up the No. 1 seed on Tuesday night in Indianapolis, and the Indiana Fever are the last obstacle standing in the way. The market has this one as close to a coin flip as a WNBA line gets. Minnesota is a 1-point road favorite, both moneylines sit at -110, and the total is 186.5. Underneath that tidy number, though, the price has moved in a way the public tickets do not explain. Our side, total, and bonus angle follow.
Last Updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026
Minnesota Lynx vs. Indiana Fever — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana |
| When | Tuesday, September 22 – 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Minnesota Lynx vs. Indiana Fever Betting Preview
Minnesota arrives at 32-10, the best record in the league and one game clear of Golden State. The stakes are simple. A Lynx win clinches the top seed and home court through the postseason, because Minnesota owns the tiebreaker after winning its season series with the Valkyries 3-1.
The Lynx needed Sunday’s 101-89 win at Connecticut. It snapped a three-game losing streak that had raised real questions about the offense. Rookie guard Olivia Miles scored 21 points in that win. She now has 790 points this season, which broke Caitlin Clark’s WNBA rookie record of 769. Napheesa Collier, meanwhile, has worked her way back from offseason ankle surgery and gives Cheryl Reeve a frontcourt anchor again. Our Sunday Lynx preview covers the skid in more detail.
Indiana sits at 27-15 and fifth in the standings, one game behind Atlanta for the fourth seed. The Fever were rolling until Sunday. They had won three straight before a 93-77 home loss to Washington, even though Clark and Kelsey Mitchell combined for 47 points. Our September 20 Fever preview set up that game.
Indiana’s identity has not changed. The Fever lead the WNBA in scoring at 96.7 points per game, while Minnesota ranks among the league’s best at 91.3. Clark leads the league with 8.4 assists per game. The two teams meet again Thursday in Minneapolis to close the regular season. The last meeting went to Minnesota, 108-100, on Aug. 2. The Fever’s official game preview lists the probable starters for both sides.
Minnesota Lynx vs. Indiana Fever Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lynx | -1 (-105) | -110 | U 186.5 (-105) |
| Fever | +1 (-115) | -110 | O 186.5 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of Tuesday, September 22, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Minnesota Lynx vs. Indiana Fever — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Lynx | 63% | 37% | Fever |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Lynx vs. Fever Prediction — Is the Market Quietly Siding With Indiana?
Start with the movement. Minnesota opened at -120 on the moneyline with Indiana at even money. Both sides now sit at -110. That shift came even though 63 percent of spread tickets and 63 percent of moneyline tickets are on the Lynx. When the price moves toward the less popular side, it usually means bigger, sharper money is doing the pushing. The spread juice tells the same story, with the Fever side now carrying the heavier price.
The case for Indiana goes beyond the market. The Fever are at home, they have the league’s top offense, and they have a reason to play hard. A win keeps the fourth seed in reach. They are also coming off an embarrassing home loss, and Clark has framed this two-game set as a chance to build confidence for the playoffs. In contrast, Minnesota plays again Thursday and could still clinch there if Tuesday slips away.
The case for Minnesota is just as real. The Lynx have the better record, the better defense, and the head-to-head result from August. Miles has given them a second creator, and a clinching game tends to sharpen a veteran group’s focus. If Minnesota’s shooting from Sunday carries over, Indiana’s defense will be tested. Still, at this price we lean toward the home team and the side the line has been drifting to.
The Pick: Fever +1 (-115)
Lynx vs. Fever Prediction — Can Indiana’s Offense Drag This Game Upward?
The total opened at 188 and has dropped to 186.5. That move favors the under at first glance. However, the over now carries the heavier juice, which suggests money has started coming back the other way at the lower number. The season scoring averages add up to 188.0 points, a shade above the current line. Indiana is also the league’s highest-scoring team, which puts pressure on any number in the 180s.
The under case rests on Minnesota. The Lynx defend at a high level, and their offense went through a three-game losing streak before Sunday. A playoff-style grind is possible with the top seed on the line. Even so, the lower number gives the over a little extra room.
The Pick: Over 186.5 (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
With a 1-point spread, the Fever’s spread and moneyline cover almost the same outcomes. WNBA games cannot end in a tie, so the only difference is a one-point Minnesota win, which would push the spread ticket. The moneyline pays at -110 instead of -115, so it offers a cheaper route to the same view. If Minnesota plays with clinching urgency and Miles stays hot, both tickets lose.
Bonus Pick: Fever Moneyline (-110)
Here is a recap of every pick in this article:
- Fever +1 (-115)
- Over 186.5 (-115)
- Fever Moneyline (-110)
WNBA Lynx vs. Fever FAQ: Tuesday September 22, 2026
What time does the Lynx vs. Fever game start?
The Lynx vs. Fever game tips off at 8:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. That is 7:00 p.m. Central for fans in Minnesota. It is the first of two meetings between the teams this week, with the regular-season finale set for Thursday in Minneapolis.
What channel is the Lynx vs. Fever game on?
The Lynx vs. Fever game airs nationally on ESPN on Tuesday night. Coverage begins around the 8:00 p.m. ET tip-off from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. It is a meaningful national window, since Minnesota can clinch the No. 1 seed and home court through the playoffs with a win.
Where are the Lynx and Fever playing today?
The Lynx and Fever play at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana, the Fever’s home arena. Tuesday is Indiana’s final regular-season home game. The teams then travel to Minneapolis, where Minnesota hosts the rematch on Thursday to close out the regular season for both clubs.
Who won the last meeting between the Lynx and Fever?
The Lynx won the last meeting, beating the Fever 108-100 on Aug. 2 at Target Center in Minneapolis. The two teams now meet twice in three days to close the regular season, first on Tuesday in Indianapolis and then on Thursday back in Minneapolis.
Where do the Lynx and Fever stand in the WNBA standings?
The Lynx are first in the WNBA at 32-10, one game ahead of the Golden State Valkyries. The Fever are fifth at 27-15, one game behind the Atlanta Dream for the fourth seed. A Minnesota win on Tuesday clinches the No. 1 seed and home court throughout the playoffs.