The lone game on Monday’s NHL slate features a clear favorite on paper—but the betting value lies in whether Ottawa can justify that price and how the total plays out. Ottawa enters this matchup at -192 on the moneyline, while New York sits at +160, with the total set at 6 goals. What’s the best bet based on the odds? Our Monday NHL Best Bets March 23 column breaks down the matchup.

Game Snapshot

• Location: Madison Square Garden
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• Moneyline: Senators -192 / Rangers +160
• Total: 6

Ottawa Senators Outlook

Ottawa comes in as the hotter and more motivated team.

• The Senators are 36-24-9 and still pushing for a playoff spot
• They’ve been one of the better offensive teams in hockey, scoring 3.35 goals per game (top 10)
• Recent form is strong, including multiple wins and a stretch where they’ve scored 16 goals in their last four games

Key contributors:

• Tim Stützle driving elite playmaking
• Brady Tkachuk providing physical scoring presence
• Drake Batherson adding consistent secondary offense

Even more impressive, Ottawa has been dominating possession metrics recently and playing some of its best hockey of the season .

The concern? Defense and special teams:

• Bottom-tier penalty kill (~74%)
• Missing key defenseman Jake Sanderson

Still, Ottawa’s offensive edge is very real.

New York Rangers Outlook

It’s been a rough season for New York.

• Just 28-33-9 on the year
• Sitting near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings
• Scoring only 2.79 goals per game (bottom 5 in NHL)

Recent form is even more concerning:

• Four-game losing streak
• Outscored 19-9 in that span

Offensive struggles have been amplified by roster changes, including the departure of Artemi Panarin, leaving Mika Zibanejad as the primary scoring threat.

One bright spot:

• Igor Shesterkin (.912 SV%) remains capable of stealing games

But the issue is volume—New York allows a high number of shots, which plays directly into Ottawa’s strengths.

Matchup Edge

This game is a classic contrast:

Ottawa’s ability to generate shots and control possession should dictate the pace, especially against a Rangers team allowing heavy shot volume .

Total (Over/Under 6) Breakdown

This is where things get interesting.

Arguments for the OVER:

• Ottawa averages 3.35 goals per game
• Senators games hit the over frequently (38 overs this season)
• Rangers defense allows 3.19 goals per game
• High shot volume on both sides

Arguments for the UNDER:

• Rangers offense is inconsistent
• Shesterkin can suppress scoring

My Read:

Even if New York struggles to score, Ottawa can realistically carry this total themselves. And with the Senators’ defensive inconsistencies, the Rangers should still contribute enough.

Prediction

Best Bet: OVER 6

Ottawa’s pace, shot volume, and offensive depth are simply too much to ignore in this matchup. Even if the Rangers don’t fully show up offensively, this game projects to feature enough chances—and likely enough goals—to clear this number.

Final Score Prediction:

Senators 4, Rangers 3