As the Stanley Cup Final showdown between the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers heats up, so does the debate around who will capture the Conn Smythe Trophy — awarded to the most valuable player of the NHL playoffs. With top-tier talent on both rosters and a wide range of odds, the race remains competitive, though a few clear frontrunners have emerged.
Let’s break down the key contenders and sleepers, followed by our final prediction. Odds are courtesy of oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv.
The Favorite: Connor McDavid (EDM) -105
It’s no surprise to see Connor McDavid as the odds-on favorite. The Oilers captain has been nothing short of spectacular throughout the playoffs, leading the charge offensively with his trademark speed, vision, and playmaking. His point totals are historic, and his presence on the ice has tilted series in Edmonton’s favor.
If the Oilers win the Cup, it’s hard to envision anyone else hoisting the Conn Smythe. Even in a close Final, McDavid’s case could be strong enough to secure the trophy regardless of outcome, similar to J.S. Giguère in 2003.
Case for McDavid: Generational offensive output, best player on the ice every game.
Case against: A Florida win would all but eliminate his chances.
Top Challenger: Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA) +270
Bobrovsky has been a rock for the Panthers in net, frustrating elite scorers and delivering clutch saves at key moments. His rebound control and composure have been instrumental in Florida’s path back to the Final. At +270, the value is strong for a goaltender who could easily be the Panthers’ playoff MVP.
Case for Bobrovsky: If Florida wins, and Bob remains steady, he likely takes the honor.
Case against: One shaky game could torpedo his case given the offensive talent on the roster.
Team Captains and X-Factors: Barkov +550 and Draisaitl +800
Aleksander Barkov (FLA) has been quietly dominant in all three zones. His defensive shutdown role and timely scoring give him a well-rounded case.
Leon Draisaitl (EDM) started the playoffs with a scoring tear, and if McDavid has even one subpar game, Draisaitl could leapfrog him in voters’ eyes.
Barkov’s case: Two-way brilliance and leadership; perfect if Florida wins a low-scoring series.
Draisaitl’s case: Game-breaking scoring ability and consistency.
Conn Smythe Trophy The Longshots & Dark Horses
Matthew Tkachuk (FLA) +2500 – A year after being Florida’s heartbeat, his odds have dipped. Still, he’s clutch and could surge late.
Stuart Skinner (EDM) +2800 – Goaltenders can steal votes if they stand tall in the Final. Skinner needs a career-best series.
Evan Bouchard (EDM) +12500 – Leads all defensemen in playoff scoring. If voters want a unique angle, Bouchard could be a sleeper pick if he makes key plays in the Final.
Sam Reinhart / Carter Verhaeghe (FLA) – At long odds (6500–8000), these two are great value bets. They’ve each delivered big goals and could be Florida’s version of Justin Williams.
Conn Smythe Trophy Prediction: Connor McDavid (EDM)
Unless the Panthers decisively win the Cup, McDavid’s impact is likely too massive to ignore. His playoff numbers are approaching all-time territory, and the narrative is building: the best player in the world finally leading his team to the promised land.
If the Oilers win the Cup — or even push it to seven games with McDavid continuing to dominate — he’s the most logical choice.
Best Bet (Chalk): McDavid -105
Best Value Bet: Bobrovsky +270
Sleeper Pick: Evan Bouchard +12500