The New England Patriots visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon with both teams at 1-1 and the market unable to separate them. Jacksonville opened as a field-goal favorite. That number has since been shaded to -2.5, a move through the most important figure in football betting. New England arrives with the stingiest scoring defense in the league and one of its least productive offenses. Jacksonville counters with more balance, but its quarterback is coming off the worst afternoon of his young season. Both of our picks below flow from the same read, and neither needs a shootout to land.
Last Updated: Sunday, September 27, 2026
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars — Game Info
| Where | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville FL |
| When | Sunday, September 27 – 1:00 PM ET |
| TV | CBS |
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview
New England has built its 1-1 start on defense and very little else. The Patriots have allowed 8.0 points per game, the fewest in the NFL, and held Pittsburgh to three points in a 20-3 Week 2 win. The offense has not kept pace. New England is averaging 15.0 points and 302 yards per game, and quarterback Drake Maye has already thrown four interceptions in two starts. The receiving room is thinner than planned, too. A.J. Brown is on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain suffered in the opener.
Jacksonville sits in first place in the AFC South at 1-1 after beating Cleveland and then dropping a 20-13 decision at Denver. The Jaguars are averaging 23.5 points and 314 yards, both comfortably ahead of New England. Trevor Lawrence was the problem in Denver, finishing 17-of-29 for 189 yards with an interception and no touchdowns. Head coach Liam Coen’s group did most of its damage in the first half and managed only three points after the break.
The injury sheets tilt slightly toward the home side. New England ruled out Quintayvious Hutchins (knee) and Dre’Mont Jones (shoulder), with Eli Raridon (thigh) and Craig Woodson (shoulder) questionable on the final Week 3 report. Jacksonville ruled out no one. The Patriots, tied for second in the AFC East behind Buffalo, lead the all-time series 12-3, though Jacksonville took the most recent meeting 32-16 in London in October 2024.
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +2.5 (+100) | +130 | U 46 (-110) |
| Jaguars | -2.5 (-120) | -150 | O 46 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, September 27, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Patriots | 61% | 39% | Jaguars |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction — Can the Home Side Hold a Number Under a Field Goal?
Start with the movement. Jacksonville opened at -3 and now sits at -2.5. That is a small move in isolation. It is not small when it crosses the number that decides more NFL games than any other. Meanwhile, 61 percent of spread tickets sit on New England. Line and tickets pointing the same way usually means the money and the tickets are not the same thing. Backers of the home side get a better number than the open offered, and they pay -120 for it.
The case for Jacksonville is the offensive gap. The Jaguars are scoring 8.5 more points per game than the Patriots and moving the ball more efficiently. Lawrence had a bad day in Denver, but he was also facing pressure behind an offensive line that lost the line of scrimmage. At home, against a New England pass rush that has generated six sacks, that equation looks friendlier. Maye’s four interceptions are the other half of it. A young quarterback who has been careless with the ball is a difficult profile to trust on the road, and it takes only one short field to decide a game priced this tightly.
The case against is serious. New England’s defense is the best in the league by points allowed, and 8.0 per game is not a rounding error. If that unit travels, Jacksonville may have to grind out a one-score win, which is exactly what a -2.5 ticket cannot always survive. The Jaguars also have a second-half problem to fix after scoring three points after the break in Denver. Still, a better offense at home, at a number the market has already shortened, reads as the more defensible side.
The Pick: Jaguars -2.5 (-120)
Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction — Is There Enough Offense Here to Clear the Number?
The total opened at 45 and has since ticked up to 46. The underlying numbers argue the other way. New England’s two games have averaged 15.0 points scored and 8.0 points allowed, which puts the Patriots’ typical game script right around 23 combined points. Jacksonville’s Week 2 loss finished at 33. Neither profile suggests a game that comfortably clears the mid-40s, and a road offense averaging 15 points is not the side of the ball that usually forces a total higher.
There is a real counterargument. Jacksonville scored freely against Cleveland in Week 1, and finding that rhythm again puts mid-20s on the board without help. Turnovers cut both ways, too. Maye’s four interceptions can produce short fields and cheap points as easily as they stall drives. However, a full point of upward drift into two low-scoring profiles usually favors the patient side, and the extra point is a better number than the open offered.
The Pick: Under 46 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
This is a game between a team that cannot score and a team that could not finish last week, which is why the market landed on a short number and a modest total. We looked at the Jacksonville moneyline at -150, a price that has not moved since the opener while the spread shortened. We are passing. Laying -150 for the same outcome we already hold at -2.5 adds cost without adding information, and a one-score finish is too likely to double up on one side.
For context on the Jacksonville loss that shaped this line, see our Week 2 preview of the Jaguars in Denver, and our latest NFL picks coverage for the rest of the slate. To recap, we are playing two positions here: Jaguars -2.5 (-120) and Under 46 (-110).
NFL Patriots vs. Jaguars FAQ: Sunday September 27, 2026
What time does the Patriots vs. Jaguars game start?
Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 27, 2026, at EverBank Stadium. It is one of the early-window games on the Week 3 schedule.
What channel is the Patriots vs. Jaguars game on?
CBS carries the broadcast. Viewers inside the local market can also stream the game on Paramount+, and out-of-market subscribers can find it through NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube and YouTube TV.
Where are the Patriots and Jaguars playing?
The game is at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida, with the Jaguars hosting. It is New England’s first trip to Jacksonville since September 2018.
Who won the last meeting between the Patriots and Jaguars?
Jacksonville won the last meeting 32-16 on October 20, 2024, in a game played in London. New England still leads the all-time series 12-3, so that result ran against the pattern between these two franchises.
Where do the Patriots and Jaguars stand in their divisions?
Jacksonville is first in the AFC South at 1-1, and New England is tied for second in the AFC East at 1-1, behind the 2-0 Buffalo Bills. Both teams are chasing their second win of the season.