Last Updated on November 16, 2025 11:43 am by Michael Cash
LAS VEGAS, NV — Sunday’s NFL Week 11 slate features a tight spread board with several games hovering around key numbers and a few lopsided public betting splits. With the latest lines and ticket percentages locked in, these are our NFL Week 11 best bets: three core plays we trust most against the spread plus two underdogs that offer legitimate upset and cover potential.
NFL Week 11 best bets — top 3 plays
Best Bet #1: Texans -5.5 vs. Titans
Houston has drawn roughly 70% of spread tickets in a divisional matchup that opened Texans -3 and now sits at -5.5. That move reflects steady market support and pushes this number toward, but not through, the key landing spot of -6. With Tennessee now catching more than a field goal and a half after opening +3, backing the current consensus and laying -5.5 keeps you aligned with both the move and the majority opinion without paying an extra premium past six.
Best Bet #2: Bills -6.5 vs. Buccaneers
Buffalo has attracted about 63% of spread tickets as the line climbed from Bills -5.5 to -6.5. Tampa Bay opened as a +5.5 underdog and now needs to stay within a touchdown on the road against one of the league’s higher-variance passing attacks. With the market already comfortable laying the extra point and Buffalo still available below -7, we prefer to ride the current price and trust the Bills’ ability to separate if their passing game sustains four quarters.
Best Bet #3: Eagles -2.5 vs. Lions
Philadelphia was originally posted around -3.5 at home before drifting down to -2.5 despite roughly three-quarters of tickets backing the Eagles. That combination — a majority on the favorite but a slightly cheaper current spread — gives would-be Eagles bettors a better number than the opener. Laying less than a field goal in a game where Philadelphia still carries the stronger home-field perception makes -2.5 a favorable way to align with public sentiment at an improved price.
Week 11 underdog picks — live long shots
Underdog #1: Jaguars +3 vs. Chargers
The Chargers moved from -1.5 to -3 on the road while drawing about 71% of spread tickets, turning Jacksonville into a full field-goal home underdog. That swing creates an opportunity for bettors who believe the early, shorter number more accurately reflected the gap between these teams. Taking the Jaguars +3 captures both home field and a key number in a contest where Los Angeles must justify a sizeable away favorite role against a capable Jacksonville offense.
Underdog #2: Giants +7 vs. Packers
Green Bay opened -4.5 and has been bet up to -7 with roughly 70% of spread tickets on the Packers. New York, meanwhile, is catching the full touchdown at home after only being priced at +4.5 initially. When a line moves this far toward a road favorite, grabbing the home dog at the new peak can be a logical way to fade late enthusiasm. Giants +7 provides protection against a one-score result in a matchup where Green Bay has not consistently pulled away from opponents.
Week 11 best bets summary
Market movement and ticket data help define where value may still exist on a busy Sunday card. Houston and Buffalo both carry strong support at numbers that have pushed in their favor but remain below key thresholds, while Philadelphia now offers a discounted price under a field goal. Jacksonville and New York headline the underdog tier, each benefiting from line moves that now give them more points than the opening market implied. As always, monitor injury updates and closing numbers to ensure you are getting the best price available before kickoff.
NFL Week 11 Best Bets — Odds Snapshot
Texans -5.5 vs. Titans (opened -3.0)
Bills -6.5 vs. Buccaneers (opened -5.5)
Eagles -2.5 vs. Lions (opened -3.5)
Jaguars +3 vs. Chargers (opened +1.5)
Giants +7 vs. Packers (opened +4.5)
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