The New York Jets open as 4.5-point home favorites against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium, and the number tells you plenty about how little the market trusts either offense. Miami arrives at 0-5 with an NFL-low 70 points scored. New York sits at 2-4 after a 26-19 loss in New England. The total has already been shaved to 39, one of the lowest figures on the Week 7 board. Our headline pick leans on the side of the field where pressure decides possessions, and the full reasoning is below.
Last Updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets — Time & How to Watch
| Where | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| When | Sunday, October 25 – 1:00 PM ET |
| TV | CBS |
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Betting Preview
Miami comes into this one still searching for a first win under Jeff Hafley. The Dolphins are 0-5 and last in the AFC East. They have scored 70 points all season, the lowest total in the league, and they average 14.0 points per game. The bye week at least gave Hafley extra preparation time. Rookie production has been the bright spot. Running back Ollie Gordon II broke off 88 yards against Cincinnati, and Miami ranks ninth in the NFL in rushing at 126.6 yards per game.
The problems sit on the other side of the ball and under center. Miami has just four sacks, dead last in the league, and four takeaways, 29th. The pass defense ranks 28th in yards allowed per pass play. Quarterback Malik Willis has thrown two touchdowns against four interceptions. For more context on how the division is shaping up, see our recent New England preview.
New York is not exactly rolling either. Aaron Glenn’s team is 2-4 and 0-1 in the division. The Jets rank 27th in scoring at 18.7 points per game and 25th in total offense at 290.6 yards. Geno Smith has been efficient with the ball, completing 69 percent of his throws with seven touchdowns and one interception, but he has been sacked 19 times, the most in the NFL. The defense is the real asset. New York has recorded 17 sacks, which ranks among the league leaders. Running back Breece Hall and left guard Dylan Parham are both working back from multi-week absences, and both carry questionable tags. Linebacker Kiko Mauigoa, offensive lineman Max Mitchell and edge rusher Joseph Ossai are out for New York. Miami has ruled out cornerback Reese Taylor and lists edge Rob Beal Jr. as doubtful. More in the Jets’ official game preview and the Dolphins’ preview.
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | +4.5 (-115) | +180 | O 39 (-115) |
| Jets | -4.5 (-105) | -220 | U 39 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, October 25, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Dolphins | 46% | 54% | Jets |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Dolphins vs. Jets Prediction — Can a Winless Road Team Hang With a Short Number?
This line has moved a half-point toward Miami since it opened. The Jets were listed at -5 when the market first posted, and the moneyline has shortened from -240 to -220. The public spread split sits almost even at 54 percent on New York. The moneyline split is the more interesting number. Roughly nine in ten moneyline tickets are on the Jets, yet the spread money has not followed. That gap usually means casual bettors like the favorite to win while sharper money is less sure about the margin.
The structural edge belongs to New York, and it is specific. The Jets have 17 sacks. Miami has allowed 14 sacks and is starting a quarterback with a 2-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Pressure against a young passer flips field position and shortens games. Miami’s own pass rush has produced four sacks in five games, which means Smith should get time to work. New York also gets the bodies back up front with Parham trending toward a return, which matters against a Dolphins front that has not generated pressure all year.
The case against the home side is real, though. New York has not covered convincingly against anybody because the offense cannot finish drives. The Jets rank 27th in scoring and have their own sack problem, with Smith taking more hits than any quarterback in football. Miami is rested off a bye, leans on a top-ten rushing attack, and has kept several games closer than the records suggest. A divisional road underdog with extra prep and a running game is exactly the profile that hangs around 4.5. Still, we would rather back the team that can take the ball away and get to the quarterback than the team that cannot do either.
The Pick: Jets -4.5 (-105)
Dolphins vs. Jets Prediction — Is 39 Already Low Enough?
The total opened at 39.5 and has ticked down to 39, which tells you the market agrees this is an ugly offensive matchup. The scoring averages back that up. Miami puts up 14.0 points per game and New York manages 18.7, a combined 32.7 that sits well beneath the posted number. The trend data points the same direction. The under has cashed in three of Miami’s five games and four of New York’s six. Add a Jets pass rush that stalls possessions and a Dolphins offense that has not reached 25 points once, and the path to 40-plus is narrow.
Here is the honest counterweight. Points-allowed numbers cut the other way, because Miami’s defense has been generous and ranks 28th in yards allowed per pass play. Blend what these teams score with what they concede and fair value lands close to 39 rather than clearly beneath it. That makes this a lean rather than a conviction play, and a single long touchdown or a special-teams score changes the math in a hurry. We will take the cheaper side of a near coin flip with the trends in support.
The Pick: Under 39 (-105)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
This is a game decided in the trenches rather than on the scoreboard. The two picks correlate cleanly, since the most likely version of a Jets cover is a low-scoring afternoon where New York’s front seven wins the possession battle. If the Dolphins protect Willis and the ground game controls tempo, both positions come under pressure at the same time.
We looked at the moneyline for a third angle and passed. Miami at +180 is tempting on the public-fade logic, but it contradicts the side we are backing, and -220 on New York asks for a 68.8 percent win rate that this Jets team has not earned. There is no bonus play we would put forward here. Two positions is enough.
Picks recap: Jets -4.5 (-105) and Under 39 (-105).
NFL Dolphins vs. Jets FAQ: Sunday October 25, 2026
What time does the Dolphins vs. Jets game start?
Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 25, 2026. The game is part of the early Sunday afternoon window, so it runs alongside several other matchups on the same slate rather than in a standalone national window.
What channel is the Dolphins vs. Jets game on?
The game airs on CBS. Coverage is distributed through local CBS affiliates, which means availability depends on your market and the regional broadcast map for the early Sunday window. Spero Dedes and Adam Archuleta are scheduled on the call.
Where are the Dolphins and Jets playing?
The game is at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, where the Jets are the home team. Miami is the visiting side for this divisional meeting, the first of two scheduled between these AFC East rivals this season.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Dolphins and Jets?
Malik Willis is Miami’s quarterback and Geno Smith starts for New York. Willis has two touchdown passes against four interceptions this season. Smith has completed 69 percent of his attempts with seven touchdowns and one interception, though he has absorbed 19 sacks.
Who won the last meeting between the Dolphins and Jets?
Miami won the most recent meeting 34-10 at MetLife Stadium on December 7, 2025. That result came at the same venue that hosts Sunday’s rematch.