Cowboys vs. Lions Picks & TNF Prediction: Will Dallas stay hot?

Cowboys vs. Lions Picks Cowboys vs. Lions Picks

Primetime in Detroit promises fireworks — two high-powered offenses, playoff implications and a short week that always spices up the lines. If you want sharp angles, matchup edges and one clean betting play for this Thursday night tilt, keep reading. This is your complete Cowboys vs. Lions Picks preview — I’ll walk through the game details, injury impact and finish with a straight score projection you can use for spread or teaser planning.

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Cowboys vs. Lions Game Day Information

  • Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions

  • Date: Thursday, December 4, 2025

  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video / Thursday Night Football).

  • Venue: Ford Field — Detroit, MI.

Cowboys at Lions — Week 14 Odds
Team
Spread
Total
Moneyline
Dallas Cowboys
+3
Over 54.5
+142
Detroit Lions
-3
Under 54.5
-170

Opening line: Cowboys +6/Lions -6

Injury Report

The short-week injury reports are critical here. Detroit has a handful of players banged up — most notably Amon-Ra St. Brown, who missed multiple practices this week and is listed as questionable after an ankle issue suffered on Thanksgiving. His status will directly influence Detroit’s passing attack and route-tree usage; if he’s limited or out, the Lions must lean more on Jameson Williams, secondary targets and the running game, which changes game-script expectations.

On Dallas’ side, the Cowboys carry several names on the weekly report (a typical midseason logjam), but the bigger story is whether key defensive pieces are truly at 100% after the short week. Dallas’ pass rush and linebacker play — even at less than perfect health — still create matchup problems for the Lions’ offensive line and short-to-intermediate passing game. Expect the Cowboys to emphasize disguises and blitz packages to force Detroit into uncomfortable down-and-distance situations late in downs.

Public Betting Tickets

Cowboys at Giants — Who is The Public Betting?
Team
Tickets
Spread Movement (Open → Current)
Dallas Cowboys
80%
+6 → +3
New York Giants
20%
-6 → -3

Numbers update frequently — check the latest on the NFL public betting chart and learn usage basics in our public betting guide.

Cowboys vs. Lions Picks & Predictions

The market has the Lions as roughly a 3-point favorite (lines clustering around Lions -3 / Cowboys +3), which feels tight given the circumstances but contains value on the visitors. I’m siding with Dallas +3 for three practical reasons:

  1. Injury uncertainty to Detroit’s WR corps: If Amon-Ra St. Brown is limited or slowed by the ankle, Detroit loses its clear primary read on intermediate-to-short patterns — the very routes that chew up the middle of the field against Dallas’ coverage shells. Even a limited St. Brown forces play-calling adjustments that favor the Cowboys’ chances in late-game situations.

  2. Matchup & recent form edge for Dallas: The Cowboys come in with momentum and a defense that has shown it can generate timely stops and turnovers. On the road as a field-goal underdog, Dallas benefits from a compressed spread for bettors — you’re essentially getting a home-team favorite point cushion in a hostile environment. Market lines (including Bovada’s market) show the spread at +3 for Dallas, which is the slice of value I prefer to target rather than taking Detroit at -3.

  3. Total and game script considerations favor the dog: With the total around the mid-50s, a game where Detroit is working through injury-driven play-calling and the Cowboys leaning on clock control gives Dallas multiple paths to cover. If Detroit is forced to be one-dimensional, Dallas can control pace and keep this within a field-goal game — exactly where +3 pays off.

Score projection: Lions 27 — Cowboys 26 (Cowboys cover +3).

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