Sunday’s regular-season finale features the Colts traveling to Houston to face the Texans in a game with division and playoff implications. The Texans can clinch the AFC South title with a win plus a Jaguars loss, while Indianapolis — officially out of the playoffs — looks to finish strong. Is the under the best bet in Sunday’s Colts vs. Texans matchup?
Colts vs. Texans Game Day Information
- 📅 Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
- ⏰ Kickoff: ~1:00 p.m. ET
- 📍 Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
- 📺 TV: CBS
Opening line: Colts +4.5/Texans -4.5
Season Context & Stakes
The Texans (11-5) have surged to an eight-game winning streak, overcoming a 0-3 start to secure their third straight postseason appearance. A Week 18 victory would cap that run with a division crown if circumstances fall their way.
The Colts (8-8) started the season with playoff aspirations but stumbled late, finishing .500 and watching their postseason hopes fade after a recent loss to the Jaguars. Indianapolis will field rookie QB Riley Leonard after injuries sidelined veterans late in the year, providing playing time and evaluation for 2026.
Key Player Notes
Houston Texans
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QB C.J. Stroud — The franchise leader has thrown for ~2,800+ yards with 18 TDs this season, pacing the Texans’ offense.
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WR Nico Collins — A breakout star with 1,100+ receiving yards and 7 TDs, Collins is a true alpha in Houston’s passing game.
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RB Woody Marks contributes balance on the ground and through the air.
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Defense: Houston’s defensive front and secondary have been stout, ranking among the league’s top units in limiting yards and points.
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CB Kamari Lassiter OUT — The playmaking corner will miss the finale, weakening the secondary.
Indianapolis Colts
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QB Riley Leonard — The third-year rookie gets the Week 18 start as Indianapolis continues to evaluate its quarterback prospects.
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RB Jonathan Taylor — Taylor has run for 1,559+ yards and 18 rushing TDs this year, staying among the NFL’s elite rushers.
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WRs Michael Pittman Jr. & Alec Pierce provide seasoned targets in the passing game.
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Defense: The Colts have given up big plays through the air this season and are missing CB Sauce Gardner (OUT), weakening a unit that could use shutdown coverage late.
Offensive & Defensive Matchups
Texans offense vs. Colts defense: Houston’s balanced attack — led by Stroud and Collins — looks to exploit Indianapolis’ league-worst pass defense while staying efficient in pivotal situations.
Colts offense vs. Texans defense: Indianapolis will lean on Taylor’s elite ground production to control tempo and keep the Texans’ attack off the field. Houston’s defense, though without Lassiter, remains stingy and capable of clutch stops.
Public Betting Tickets
Numbers update frequently — check the latest on the NFL public betting chart and learn usage basics in our public betting guide.
Recent Series & Trends
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The Texans won the first meeting this season 20-16 in late November, a close divisional contest that underscored Houston’s momentum rising thereafter.
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Houston’s defense has tightened significantly over its winning streak, while the Colts’ offense has oscillated with quarterback and roster changes late in the year.
Prediction
This one shapes up as a Texans home victory, with Houston’s defensive consistency and Collins’ offensive explosiveness proving decisive. The Colts will fight and find daylight on the ground with Taylor, but a rookie QB and a top-tier Texans defense tilt this game toward Houston.
Final Score Projection:
Texans 20 — Colts 6
Expect a physical divisional battle where defensive stops and key plays from Houston’s stars create separation in the second half.
Picks: Under 37.5
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