This AFC East showdown pits the 9–4 Buffalo Bills against the 11–2 New England Patriots in a game that feels like direct playoff seeding work: Buffalo is jockeying for conference positioning while New England is defending a top AFC record at home. Will Josh Allen lead Buffalo to a win and even the season series between these two teams? Or will New England take another step to clinching the AFC East? Read on for our Bills vs. Patriots prediction preview.
Bills vs. Patriots Game Day Information
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🏟 Stadium: Gillette Stadium — Foxborough, MA
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⏰ Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
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📺 TV: CBS
Opening line: Bills -4.5 / Patriots +4.5
Why this game matters
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AFC implications: Both teams are positioned near the top of the AFC standings, and a win here has seeding implications late in the season. The Bills want to keep moving toward a top seed; the Patriots want to protect home-field advantage and keep pace.
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Style contrast: Buffalo’s high-octane offense (Josh Allen + playmakers) meets New England’s balanced, situational offense and opportunistic defense. Matchups up front and turnover margin will be decisive.
Buffalo Bills (9–4)
Offense / QB: Josh Allen has been leading Buffalo’s offense at an elite level — he sits around ~3,080 passing yards and 22 TDs for the season and is playing with strong form (Allen was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week after a big Week 14 outing). He’s the clear centerpiece who can beat you through the air or with his legs. Expect the Bills to use play-action, RPOs and designed QB runs when seams open.
Supporting cast: Dalton Kincaid (TE) returned to full practice and should be a safety-valve in the middle of the field; receiver room depth and James Cook (back) give Buffalo multiple ways to move the chains.
Defense: Buffalo’s front and second-level defenders can generate pressure and take away intermediate throws. They’ll need to limit turnovers and avoid giving New England short fields. Joey Bosa’s status (resumed practice but game availability uncertain) is one to watch; his presence changes the pass-rush dynamic.
Injury notes: Bills opened Week 15 with a mostly clean report; Spencer Brown (RT) looks trending back, Dalton Kincaid practicing fully, and Joey Bosa progressing in practice though not yet a full lock for Sunday.
New England Patriots (11–2)
Offense / QB: New England’s offense has been efficient and complementary to a defense that creates turnovers. The Patriots sustain drives via run/pass balance and play-action. Whoever starts at QB (Patriots depth/starter status is stable heading into Week 15) will look to exploit matchups underneath and convert on third down.
Defense: The Patriots have routinely made life difficult for opposing offenses in 2025 — disciplined at the point of attack and opportunistic in turnovers. They’ll aim to pressure Allen without over-committing and to force Buffalo into longer, lower-percentage drives.
Injury notes: New England’s Week 15 injury report lists a handful of players (Terrell Jennings did not participate in early practice; Harold Landry limited with a knee; Vederian Lowe limited). Monitor the Friday report for final availability, especially on the pass-rush/line fronts.
Public Betting Tickets
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Matchups & keys that decide the game
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Bills OL vs. Patriots front seven: Protecting Allen is the Bills’ priority. If Buffalo can buy him time, they’ll open the intermediate/deep game and keep NE off balance. Joey Bosa’s availability matters here.
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Patriots run game & situational offense vs. Bills defense: New England’s ability to stay on schedule and convert third downs (and control the clock) will keep Allen off the field and the Bills’ defense honest.
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Turnover margin: Both teams are good at creating or taking advantage of mistakes — the team that wins giveaways/givebacks will likely win.
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Special teams & field position: In a close game at Gillette, kicking and returns (and punts) can swing late possessions.
Quick stat snapshot (season-to-date context)
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Josh Allen (BUF): ~3,083 passing yards, 22 TDs, 10 INT — elite impact player in 2025.
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Bills form/injuries: Buffalo entered Week 15 with a relatively clean injury report and positive momentum after a big Week 14 win.
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Patriots form: New England sits at 11–2 and has a strong home record and overall team balance; their Week 15 injury report lists a few limited participants to monitor.
Bills vs. Patriots Picks & Predictions
Expect a fast, aggressive Bills offense against a disciplined Patriots unit that will try to run the clock and create turnover opportunities. If weather becomes a factor, the contest will tilt toward shorter passes and more rushing attempts; in clean conditions it’s a shootout candidate given the offensive firepower on both sidelines.
This is a razor-thin game. I’m giving the slight edge to Buffalo because of Allen’s playmaking ability and Buffalo’s offensive weapons — but New England’s home environment, situational offense and opportunistic defense keep this very close.
Final Score Prediction: Bills 27, Patriots 24. (Take Buffalo -1)
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