The 2025 NFL season is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory—and so is the race for Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY). With a diverse mix of stars returning from injuries, players seeking redemption after down years, and even rookies entering unique narratives, voters will have their hands full.
Here’s a breakdown of the current favorites, intriguing longshots, and our early prediction for who will take home the award. All odds are courtesy of Bovada.lv.
2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Top Contenders
Dak Prescott (DAL) — +270
Dak remains the betting favorite for a reason. Though he wasn’t injured in 2024, the Cowboys’ playoff flameout and the heavy scrutiny around his future in Dallas make this a narrative-driven case. If he leads a retooled Cowboys team to a deep playoff run under a new regime—or even gets an MVP vote—he’ll be a strong contender.
Aidan Hutchinson (DET) — +300
Hutchinson being this high signals bettors think he’s playing through something or poised for a leap. Though he hasn’t suffered a major injury, a potential elite breakout after a “quiet” double-digit sack year in 2024 could fit a looser interpretation of the award (à la 2022 Geno Smith).
Christian McCaffrey (SF) — +370
McCaffrey is an MVP-caliber player every season he’s healthy. The key question is: what’s he coming back from? If he battles back from injury or a slow start to put up vintage numbers, voters may reward the comeback narrative from the 2023-24 playoff loss and possible offseason trade rumors.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) — +430
After an inconsistent 2024 and the Jaguars missing the playoffs, Lawrence is entering a prove-it year. If he stabilizes under a new offensive coordinator and leads Jacksonville to an AFC South title, the “bounce-back QB” narrative could win the day.
Mid-Tier Sleepers
Rashee Rice (KC) — +1000
The looming suspension after off-field legal troubles casts doubt on his 2025 outlook. But if he returns midseason and helps revitalize Kansas City’s receiving corps, he could win over voters with a strong second half.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) — +1800
Tua’s injury history keeps him in this conversation every year. If he plays a full season and finally leads Miami deep into the playoffs, his odds will skyrocket. A healthy, productive Tua is always in play for this award.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) — +2100
Aiyuk could be the best dark horse value if he’s traded and becomes a WR1 somewhere else (like New England or Pittsburgh). A career year in a new offense could create a breakout comeback storyline.
Anthony Richardson (IND) — +3000
Richardson’s rookie season was cut short by a shoulder injury. If he returns healthy and shows the dual-threat upside that made him a top-5 pick, the buzz around him could make +3000 look like a steal.
Deep Value Longshots
Nick Chubb (CLE) — +10000
This is the sentimental and realistic longshot. After suffering a gruesome knee injury in 2023, Chubb is expected to return sometime in 2025. If he looks like himself late in the season and carries Cleveland to the playoffs, it would be hard not to vote for him.
Chris Godwin (TB) — +2600
Godwin had a disappointing 2024 campaign and could benefit from a new QB or offensive system. If he goes over 1,200 yards and returns to Pro Bowl form, he’ll have a strong narrative case.
Stefon Diggs (HOU) — +4300
If Diggs silences the critics and becomes C.J. Stroud’s top weapon in Houston, he could flip the post-Buffalo doubters on their head. A 1,400-yard season and AFC Championship appearance would do wonders for his case.
2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Fades
J.J. McCarthy (MIN) +750: Rarely do rookies win this award. Without an injury or major adversity to “come back” from, the narrative simply isn’t there unless he overcomes massive early struggles.
Deshaun Watson (CLE) +40000: While technically a comeback candidate, off-field baggage severely limits voter appetite—especially if the Browns offense remains inconsistent.
2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Prediction: Anthony Richardson (IND) +3000
Richardson checks several CPOY boxes:
Missed most of 2023 (shoulder injury)
Dynamic skill set and highlight potential
High visibility position
Young, playoff-hopeful team
Narrative appeal (return of a high-upside franchise QB)
If he stays healthy and leads Indianapolis to 10+ wins, his dual-threat explosion and growth will make him a top story all season.
Final Thoughts
Comeback Player of the Year often leans toward quarterbacks with clear redemption arcs or players returning from major injuries. While Prescott and Lawrence are tempting as favorites, Richardson’s blend of narrative, opportunity, and highlight potential may be the perfect storm in 2025.
Stay tuned—this race could shift dramatically by midseason, especially if Nick Chubb returns to form or if a surprise contender emerges.