Bengals vs. Browns Free Pick
(The Spread) – Two young quarterbacks will battle in Cleveland on Sunday when the Browns host the Bengals at 1:00PM ET.
Odds: Oddsmakers have made the host Browns 6.5-point favorites versus the visiting Bengals, who will start rookie second-round pick Andy Dalton at quarterback. With Dalton and second-year signal caller Colt McCoy starting for Cleveland, the over/under total for this game is currently sitting at a very low 34.5 points.
Line Movements: The line has changed dramatically in this one since it opened in Vegas back on April 23. Back then, oddsmakers had no idea that Carson Palmer would stick to his guns and stay retired if the Bengals didn’t trade him, thus, the Browns opened as 3-point favorites. After it looked like Dalton would in fact be the starter for the Bengals, the spread jumped all the way up to 6.5, where it is now. The over/under total opened at 38 points but has dropped to 34.5.
Public Betting: Of the 19,000-plus wagers on Sunday’s game, 79% of NFL public bettors currently favor the Browns -6.5. This information is subject to change leading up to kickoff, so make sure you click on the link provided for updated public betting numbers.
NFL Free Pick: Take Cincinnati. According to latest NFL trends, the underdog is 7-1 against the spread in the last eight meetings between these two teams, while the Bengals are 4-1 against the number in their last five games overall. They’re also 4-1 ATS in their lat five games in September, while the Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in September and 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 Week 1 contests. Cleveland is also 0-4 ATS in its last four home games and 0-4 ATS in its last four division games. Plenty of bettors will hop on the Browns because they’re the up-and-coming team, while the Bengals are seemingly going backwards with a rookie a QB. But if that rookie QB can just limit his mistakes, the Bengals aren’t that bad of a team overall. They should be able to hang with their AFC North counterparts and cover the spread.
2011 NFL WEEK 1 FREE PICK: CINCINNATI BENGALS +6.5
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