Packers vs. Falcons Free Pick
Atlanta, GA (The Spread) – In what could wind up being the best game of the weekend, the Atlanta Falcons host the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night in the 2011 NFL Divisional Round Playoffs. Continue reading for picks, odds and trends on this NFL playoff matchup.
View Current NFL Divisional Round Playoff Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com, the Falcons are currently 2.5-point favorites over the Packers on Saturday night. The over/under total for this game is currently 43.5 points.
The Packers beat the Eagles last Sunday in the Wildcard Round to improve to 11-6 on the year. According to latest NFL trends, they’re 10-7 against the spread this year, which includes a 5-4 ATS record on the road. They’re just 4-5 straight up on the road this year, however.
The Falcons earned the top seed in the playoffs so they had last week off. They come into this game with a 13-3 record (7-1 at home) and have covered in 11 of their 16 games this season (5-3 ATS at home). Only the Lions at 12-4 had a better ATS record this season than the Falcons.
The under has hit in 11 of Green Bay’s 17 games this season including eight of nine on the road. The over has hit in nine of the Falcons’ 16 games, although the total pushed twice as well. The over also hit in four of Atlanta’s eight home games and pushed once.
2011 Divisional Round Free Pick:
The Packers have become the chic pick to make the postseason in the NFC and maybe people are breaking their ankles hopping on the James Starks’ bandwagon. But keep in mind that Green Bay essentially had to play three postseason games (Giants, Bears and Eagles) just to get to this point and now have to travel once again this week. The Falcons are 7-1 at home this year and 20-2 at the Georgia Dome in Matt Ryan-starts. They went 13-3 for a reason and they don’t make many mistakes (i.e. turnovers and penalties). That said, we still think there’s more value in the total than the side. The Packers’ defense hasn’t given up more than 17 points in each of their last three games and the Falcons’ D hasn’t given up more than 18 points in their last four games. Both of these defenses are playing extremely well right now and while everyone concentrates on Ryan and Aaron Rodgers, this game will be determined by which defense steps up in the fourth quarter. The under is 8-1 in the Packers’ last nine road games and 4-1 in their last five games when they’re an underdog. Our pick is the under.
2011 NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF FREE PICK: PACKERS/FALCONS UNDER 43.5
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