Packers vs. Bears Matchup Report
(The Spread) – Many football fans will focus on the matchup between Aaron Rodgers and the Chicago Bears defense, but we take an even closer look inside the numbers of the 2011 NFC Championship Game.
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According to oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com, the Packers are 3.5-point favorites over the Bears on Sunday. The over/under total for this game is currently sitting at 43.5 points.
Packers’ Offense vs. Bears’ Defense:
Led by Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have the fifth best passing game in the league. They average 257.8 yards per game and 7.7 yards per pass attempt, which is a stat that often reflects wins and losses. Green Bay can certainly take advantage of a defense that ranks 21st in passing yards allowed. The Bears are giving up an average of 225.3 passing yards per game and an average completion percentage of 61.94% (17th in the NFL).
That said, where the Bears can do their most damage is in their front seven. They rank second in rushing yards allowed per game at 86.8 and held teams to 3.7 yards per attempt this season. The Packers’ weakness offensively is their inability to run the ball, although James Starks has given them a lift over the past couple of weeks. Still, the Packers rank 23rd in rushing yards per game at 102.2.
Bears’ Offense vs. Packers’ Defense:
Despite Mike Martz’s desire to throw the ball, the Bears rank just 27th in the league in passing yards per game (192.7). They rank 15th in yards per pass attempt at 6.6, but are dead last in quarterback sack percentage at 10.65%. Green Bay’s pass defense has been outstanding this year, yielding just 195.9 passing yards per game. The Packers also rank third in sack percentage at 8.50%.
Chicago is averaging 105.4 yards per game on the ground this year, which ranks the Bears 19th in that category. They’re gaining just 3.9 yards per carry, which ranks 23rd in the league. Green Bay’s run defense has been decent this year, allowing 109.1 yards per contest but the Packers are allowing 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. So they’re not giving up a lot of yards on the ground overall but when opponents do run, they’re gaining nearly five yards per carry.
Both of these teams can create turnovers. Green Bay ranks third in turnover margin at +0.7 per game, while Chicago ranks 12th at +0.2. The Packers are fourth in penalties per game at 4.8, while Chicago is 17th at 5.8. In the first meeting between these two teams in Week 3, the Packers were penalized 18 times, which is one of the reasons they were beaten.
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