Jets vs. Steelers Line Movement
Pittsburgh, PA (The Spread) – As we get closer to kickoff of the 2011 AFC Conference Championship Game between the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers, the line has stayed relatively steady throughout the week.
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According to oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com, the Steelers opened as 3-point favorites over the Jets, while the over/under total opened at 38 points.
Within about a day, the Steelers jumped from 3-point favorites to 3.5-point favorites and the line hasn’t moved much since then. At one point midweek, the Jets were a 4-point underdog, but the line dipped back down to 3.5 and it’s stayed there ever since.
The same thing happened with the total. It opened at 38, then went up to 38.5, then went back down to 38 and has settled in at 38.5. While the public is well aware of the defenses in this matchup, the over is probably tempting with the way the Steelers-Ravens game turned into a shootout last week.
And there’s even more reason to back the over. According to latest NFL trends, the over is 5-0 in the Steelers’ last five conference championship games and 4-0 in their last four playoff games as a favorite (which includes last week’s win over Baltimore, when Pittsburgh scored 31 points). The over is also 19-2 in the Steelers’ last 21 games in January and 14-2 in their last 16 playoff games overall.
Because the Steelers always have a great defense and weather plays a factor at this time of year, the line is usually set below 40 points, which leads to the total going over a lot. That said, bettors still have to be weary of a potential field goal fest when it comes to these two teams because of how well their defenses usually play.
There’s also a decent possibility that both teams will try to win this game on the ground. The Jets’ strength offensively is their ground game, led by Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson. The Steelers have Rashard Mendenhall, who has provided their offense with more balance over the years.
Getting back to the line movement, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Steelers become 4-point favorites, while the total rises as high as 39 or even 39.5. The public seems to get fixated on what happened the week before and with all four overs hitting in the Divisional Round, it would be surprising to see bettors push that total higher.
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