Saints vs. Bucs Prediction
Are the New Orleans Saints a good bet to cover the point spread this afternoon in Tampa Bay when they take on their NFC South rivals the Bucs at 4:25 p.m. ET?
Who Oddsmakers Like: New Orleans. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Saints are 6-point road favorites to beat the Bucs, who opened as 9-point home underdogs earlier in the week. The total, meanwhile, hit the board at 50 but has dropped to 49.
Who the Public Likes: As of Sunday morning, 66% of betting tickets are on the Saints to cover the spread while 57% of the money is also on New Orleans.
Who the Trends Like: The under and the home team. In the last four meetings between these two teams in Tampa, the under is a perfect 4-0. In the last six meetings between these two teams overall, the under has cashed five times. And in the last 10 meetings in this series, the home team has covered seven times.
Who We Like: New Orleans. The Bucs gave the Falcons and Panthers games the last two weeks so why wouldn't they fight hard today at home versus the Saints? That's an easy argument to buy into but the problem with that narrative is that it forces you to believe that Atlanta and Carolina are on par with New Orleans. The Falcons and Panthers are not. The Saints are the superior team in the NFC South and with the division title up for grabs, I expect New Orleans to come out firing on all cylinders.
The Saints are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games versus NFC South opponents, are 13-4 against the number in their last 17 road games, and are 15-6 at the betting window in their last 21 conference games. They're 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games overall, too.
The Bucs, meanwhile, have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 games versus NFC opponents, are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven divisional games, and are 4-9-1 against the spread in their last 14 games overall.
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